Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19708
 
Hales, Smith In Tight Fight for Mayor of Portland Oregon, 1 Month Till Voting Begins:

In an election for Mayor of Portland, Oregon today 09/19/12, Charlie Hales has a slight advantage over Jefferson Smith, with plenty of room for Smith to overtake Hales, given a large block of undecided voters, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KATU-TV.

Smith gets 34% today, Hales gets 29%. 37% are undecided. Both Smith and Hales are Democrats, running for a nonpartisan office. Among Democrats, who make up two-thirds of the electorate, Hales leads. Conservatives and moderates back Hales. Liberals back Smith. Lower-income voters back Smith, upper-income voters back Hales. Younger voters back Smith. Older voters back Hales. Hales is backed by white voters. Smith is backed by non-whites. The larger the minority turnout, the better Smith will perform.

The Portland School District Bond Measure, which would issue up to $482 million in bonds in order to improve schools, today leads 2:1. Republicans and conservatives oppose the measure; those with some college education are divided; support for the measure outweighs opposition among all other groups and in all parts of the city.

The Portland City Arts Tax measure, which would create a $35 annual income tax to fund the arts and arts education, today is tied: 23% today are certain to vote "Yes," 22% certain to vote "No." 54% are not certain how they will vote. Voters are not yet focused on this measure.

The Multnomah County Library Taxing District Creation measure, which would create a dedicated fund for county libraries, leads by almost 2:1. 38% today are certain to vote "yes," 21% certain to vote "no." 41% are not certain.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 850 Multnomah County adults 09/14/12 through 09/18/12. After filtering questions were applied, 655 likely voters in Multnomah County were identified, of which 508 were also likely voters in the city of Portland. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Incumbent mayor Sam Adams is not seeking a second term.

 
If the election for Portland mayor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Charlie Hales? Or Jefferson Smith?
506 Portland Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW PortlMultnoma
Charlie Hales34%35%33%19%29%46%49%24%47%36%26%23%37%34%36%31%40%37%33%42%31%35%27%36%43%38%38%31%**30%**
Jefferson Smith29%34%23%24%30%32%25%27%30%28%33%28%29%30%30%24%26%25%35%13%33%29%34%24%27%26%35%28%**22%**
Undecided37%30%43%56%40%22%26%48%23%36%41%50%34%36%34%46%34%38%32%45%37%36%39%40%30%36%27%41%**48%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%
Composition of Portland Likely Voters100%48%52%29%27%30%14%55%45%84%16%18%82%17%63%18%20%34%39%10%36%53%35%38%27%11%28%43%4%13%0%
 
 
On the Portland City Arts Tax ballot measure, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
506 Portland Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW PortlMultnoma
Yes23%28%19%29%23%20%20%26%20%25%16%38%20%17%24%29%18%21%31%13%15%31%16%26%32%25%27%21%**28%**
No22%24%20%18%18%27%29%18%27%23%20%17%23%36%19%24%38%27%12%28%32%14%19%26%24%26%21%24%**24%**
Not Certain54%48%60%53%59%53%51%56%52%52%64%45%56%47%57%47%44%52%57%60%52%55%65%49%45%49%52%55%**48%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%
Composition of Portland Likely Voters100%48%52%29%27%30%14%55%45%84%16%18%82%17%63%18%20%34%39%10%36%53%35%38%27%11%28%43%4%13%0%
 
 
On the Portland School District Bond measure, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
506 Portland Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW PortlMultnoma
Yes43%48%37%47%40%43%37%44%41%42%46%45%42%23%50%36%29%40%56%41%31%50%29%48%53%47%40%41%**53%**
No23%23%24%12%22%32%31%17%32%25%18%9%27%47%16%28%50%22%12%27%31%18%18%28%26%26%25%25%**24%**
Not Certain34%29%39%41%38%26%31%39%27%33%37%45%31%30%34%36%21%38%32%31%39%32%53%23%21%26%35%34%**23%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%
Composition of Portland Likely Voters100%48%52%29%27%30%14%55%45%84%16%18%82%17%63%18%20%34%39%10%36%53%35%38%27%11%28%43%4%13%0%
 
 
On the Multnomah County Library Taxing District Creation measure, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
655 Multnomah County Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW PortlMultnoma
Yes38%38%38%36%35%40%43%35%41%36%51%44%37%28%41%41%27%36%46%29%30%45%27%41%44%37%44%37%**40%32%
No21%22%20%18%17%26%24%18%25%22%18%16%22%33%19%16%42%17%13%31%26%16%16%25%23%30%20%25%**19%16%
Not Certain41%40%42%46%48%34%34%47%34%43%31%41%41%39%41%43%31%47%41%40%43%40%57%34%33%33%36%39%**41%52%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Multnomah County Likely Voters100%50%50%28%26%30%16%54%46%84%16%16%84%20%59%19%21%35%36%11%38%51%32%38%30%8%22%33%3%10%24%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.