Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23154
 
In Minnesota, Clinton 7 Atop Trump on Eve Of 1st Presidential Debate:

Minnesota's 10 Electoral Votes at this hour appear likely to remain blue, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

When likely voters are presented with 4 candidates for President, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, both of whom are on the ballot in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton tops Republican Donald Trump, 46% to 39%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%. When the same likely voters are asked how they would vote if the only choice were between Clinton and Trump, Clinton's margin shrinks ever-so-slightly from 7 points to 6 points, 49% to 43%.

Trump leads 11:1 among Strong Republicans, but Clinton leads 24:1 among Strong Democrats. That difference, on the extreme ends of the political spectrum, lays the groundwork for Clinton to carry the state. Among very conservative voters, 15% defect to Clinton, triple the number of very liberal voters who defect to Trump. Trump leads among evangelicals 2:1, leads among rural men by 2:1, leads among high school educated men by 5:2, leads in military households by 5:3, leads in Western MN by 3:2 and leads in Northeastern MN 5:4. Clinton leads by 18 points among those with a 4-year college degree, leads by 16 points among seniors, leads by 15 points among women, leads by 15 points in the greater Twin Cities and by 11 points in Southern MN. Trump battles Clinton to a draw among middle-income voters, but Clinton leads by 12 points among the least affluent voters and by 9 points among the most affluent voters.

Trump leads among voters focused on immigration, terrorism and national security. Clinton leads among voters focused on the economy, the environment and education. Trump leads by 20 points among independent men. Clinton leads by 10 points among independent women. In rural Minnesota, Trump leads 2:1 among men, runs even with Clinton among women. In suburban Minnesota, Trump leads by 4 among men, Clinton leads by 13 among women.

52% of those voting for Clinton say they cast their ballot enthusiastically, compared with 54% of Trump voters. 45% of Clinton voters say they cast their vote "with reservations," compared to 44% of Trump voters. 58% of Clinton voters are voting "for" Clinton, compared to 39% who are voting "against Trump." 52% of Trump voters are voting "for Trump," compared to 46% who are voting "against Clinton."

Filtering and Context:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 09/16/16 through 09/20/16. Of the adults, 743 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 625 were determined by SurveyUSA to return a ballot on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 6% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush's attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush's bid for a 1st term.

 
If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or some other candidate?
625 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityAttend ChurchEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralNeverOccasionRegularlYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MNMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
Donald Trump (R)39%44%34%27%45%40%38%39%39%85%80%74%41%5%5%4%82%40%5%80%70%27%4%5%73%53%34%45%1%2%28%40%48%26%46%45%60%28%50%35%45%42%35%31%44%40%34%42%36%35%47%50%44%36%60%39%47%32%50%
Hillary Clinton (D)46%42%49%43%37%52%54%39%53%8%8%7%29%65%86%96%8%34%90%15%19%49%77%85%21%33%53%40%71%79%56%45%36%57%40%39%30%57%33%50%39%40%53%43%43%49%42%48%51%46%32%39%40%49%30%41%27%42%23%
Gary Johnson (L)6%8%4%11%8%4%2%9%3%0%7%12%16%5%4%0%4%10%2%0%5%10%10%3%4%3%5%6%12%9%5%7%6%8%6%4%4%7%7%6%3%6%7%7%6%6%10%4%5%6%8%8%10%4%6%6%13%7%7%
Jill Stein (G)2%1%2%3%1%2%1%2%1%0%0%2%6%7%0%0%0%5%0%0%1%4%2%2%1%1%3%1%3%4%1%3%0%3%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%3%1%3%3%1%3%1%2%0%2%1%2%4%1%0%3%6%4%
Other1%1%1%1%1%1%3%1%2%2%3%1%2%2%0%0%2%1%0%1%2%2%0%1%0%1%1%2%0%3%2%1%2%1%1%3%2%1%2%1%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%2%1%3%1%0%2%0%1%3%1%2%2%
Undecided6%4%8%14%8%1%2%11%1%5%2%6%5%16%4%0%3%9%2%3%4%9%7%3%1%9%4%6%14%3%7%5%8%5%6%7%4%6%8%5%9%7%5%14%3%4%11%3%5%10%10%2%3%7%2%12%8%11%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%18%33%26%23%51%49%11%16%13%10%13%20%14%27%37%34%14%27%24%19%13%11%23%30%15%7%6%24%45%28%32%33%35%30%60%29%69%15%40%45%22%36%42%35%65%60%13%13%14%22%22%12%16%19%18%5%
 
2Now, what if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump? And Democrat Hillary Clinton?
625 Likely November VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityAttend ChurchEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralNeverOccasionRegularlYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MNMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
Donald Trump (R)43%47%39%34%51%44%39%45%42%92%82%86%44%7%7%4%86%46%6%86%77%31%7%6%75%58%38%51%4%2%28%45%55%31%50%49%65%32%55%39%48%48%39%35%47%45%42%44%40%41%54%52%50%40%63%50%51%40%54%
Hillary Clinton (D)49%45%53%54%39%53%55%44%54%8%9%8%40%78%89%94%9%42%91%13%20%53%89%87%21%34%57%45%80%90%64%47%38%63%44%41%30%62%37%54%46%44%54%53%45%51%50%49%55%51%34%39%42%52%29%44%37%48%39%
Undecided7%7%7%12%10%3%6%11%4%1%9%6%17%14%3%1%5%12%3%1%3%16%4%7%5%8%6%4%16%8%8%8%7%6%6%10%5%7%8%7%7%8%7%12%8%4%9%7%6%8%13%9%8%8%8%5%12%12%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely November Voters100%50%50%18%33%26%23%51%49%11%16%13%10%13%20%14%27%37%34%14%27%24%19%13%11%23%30%15%7%6%24%45%28%32%33%35%30%60%29%69%15%40%45%22%36%42%35%65%60%13%13%14%22%22%12%16%19%18%5%
 
Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?
271 Trump VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityAttend ChurchEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralNeverOccasionRegularlYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MNMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
For Trump52%53%50%52%44%60%56%46%58%60%54%47%52%******57%48%**52%59%41%****58%60%42%53%****65%50%48%50%53%53%53%50%53%51%54%56%47%57%51%51%41%58%51%38%58%59%48%51%54%43%42%55%52%
Against Clinton46%47%46%48%55%36%43%53%39%40%44%52%46%******43%51%**47%40%54%****42%37%58%43%****35%48%50%50%44%45%45%49%44%47%46%42%50%43%47%47%58%40%47%55%42%41%51%44%46%54%57%43%48%
Not Sure2%0%3%0%1%4%1%1%3%0%1%1%2%******1%1%**1%1%5%****0%2%1%5%****0%3%1%0%2%2%2%1%2%1%0%2%2%0%2%2%1%2%2%7%0%0%1%5%0%3%1%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Trump Voters100%55%45%14%39%27%21%53%47%24%31%26%10%2%3%1%54%39%5%28%47%17%3%2%19%30%26%18%1%0%15%46%36%23%38%39%45%43%37%62%16%44%40%18%39%43%34%66%55%12%17%16%26%20%17%18%22%16%7%
 
Do you vote for Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
271 Trump VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityAttend ChurchEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralNeverOccasionRegularlYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MNMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
Enthusiastically54%58%48%53%44%62%61%47%61%76%50%48%47%******61%47%**67%53%45%****64%61%45%47%****70%50%50%59%51%54%56%52%58%50%64%58%45%63%52%52%41%60%53%35%58%64%50%49%55%45%50%43%65%
With Reservations44%40%49%47%53%35%36%52%36%23%47%51%53%******37%53%**32%44%50%****36%34%53%51%****30%48%46%41%47%42%41%46%40%47%35%38%54%36%47%45%57%37%46%58%36%36%48%49%41%51%49%57%35%
Not Sure2%2%3%0%2%4%3%2%3%1%3%1%0%******2%1%**1%3%5%****0%5%2%2%****0%2%4%0%2%4%3%2%2%2%2%4%1%2%2%4%1%3%1%7%6%0%2%2%4%4%1%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Trump Voters100%55%45%14%39%27%21%53%47%24%31%26%10%2%3%1%54%39%5%28%47%17%3%2%19%30%26%18%1%0%15%46%36%23%38%39%45%43%37%62%16%44%40%18%39%43%34%66%55%12%17%16%26%20%17%18%22%16%7%
 
Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?
308 Clinton VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityAttend ChurchEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralNeverOccasionRegularlYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MNMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
For Clinton58%58%57%48%49%66%66%48%66%******24%38%60%78%**34%68%**59%43%60%64%**57%59%52%71%51%65%52%58%48%61%67%71%54%59%56%49%54%62%54%56%60%42%66%57%55%51%68%52%51%63%55%23%42%**
Against Trump39%38%39%50%47%31%31%48%31%******67%59%38%18%**62%30%**35%54%39%33%**36%41%46%25%40%32%45%39%50%36%29%28%43%38%41%45%42%36%43%42%36%55%30%39%40%46%32%46%44%31%42%73%53%**
Not Sure3%3%4%3%4%3%3%3%3%******10%3%2%4%**4%3%**7%3%1%3%**8%0%2%4%10%3%3%4%2%3%5%1%3%3%3%6%4%2%3%2%4%3%4%4%5%3%0%2%4%6%3%4%5%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Clinton Voters100%46%54%20%26%28%26%46%54%2%3%2%8%21%37%26%5%31%63%4%11%26%35%22%5%15%34%14%11%11%32%44%22%41%30%29%18%75%22%76%14%36%50%24%33%43%35%65%66%14%9%11%19%24%7%14%14%17%4%
 
Do you vote for Clinton enthusiastically? Or with reservations?
308 Clinton VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueUrbanityAttend ChurchEvangelicalMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeCell Phone / LanRegionSuburbanRuralIndependentHS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Strong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibImmigratTerrorisEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmUrbanSuburbanRuralNeverOccasionRegularlYesNoYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCell PhoLandlineTwin CitS MNW MNNE MNMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMen
Enthusiastically52%48%54%38%45%59%61%42%60%******39%35%51%76%**34%62%**31%49%49%66%**58%53%43%59%45%61%44%52%45%56%57%64%49%51%51%54%44%57%48%52%54%34%61%53%40%45%66%36%50%45%55%26%41%**
With Reservations45%48%42%52%54%37%37%53%37%******58%57%46%22%**59%36%**66%48%45%32%**38%42%54%38%55%32%54%47%51%40%39%34%48%39%47%25%55%41%41%47%44%60%36%42%59%52%34%64%47%55%43%63%57%**
Not Sure4%4%4%10%1%4%2%5%3%******3%8%3%1%**6%3%**3%3%6%2%**4%4%2%4%0%7%2%1%4%4%4%2%3%11%2%21%1%2%12%1%2%6%3%5%1%3%0%0%3%0%2%11%2%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Clinton Voters100%46%54%20%26%28%26%46%54%2%3%2%8%21%37%26%5%31%63%4%11%26%35%22%5%15%34%14%11%11%32%44%22%41%30%29%18%75%22%76%14%36%50%24%33%43%35%65%66%14%9%11%19%24%7%14%14%17%4%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.