Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23154

In Minnesota, Clinton 7 Atop Trump on Eve Of 1st Presidential Debate:

Minnesota's 10 Electoral Votes at this hour appear likely to remain blue, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities.

When likely voters are presented with 4 candidates for President, including Libertarian Gary Johnson and Green Party candidate Jill Stein, both of whom are on the ballot in 2016, Democrat Hillary Clinton tops Republican Donald Trump, 46% to 39%, with Johnson at 6% and Stein at 2%. When the same likely voters are asked how they would vote if the only choice were between Clinton and Trump, Clinton's margin shrinks ever-so-slightly from 7 points to 6 points, 49% to 43%.

Trump leads 11:1 among Strong Republicans, but Clinton leads 24:1 among Strong Democrats. That difference, on the extreme ends of the political spectrum, lays the groundwork for Clinton to carry the state. Among very conservative voters, 15% defect to Clinton, triple the number of very liberal voters who defect to Trump. Trump leads among evangelicals 2:1, leads among rural men by 2:1, leads among high school educated men by 5:2, leads in military households by 5:3, leads in Western MN by 3:2 and leads in Northeastern MN 5:4. Clinton leads by 18 points among those with a 4-year college degree, leads by 16 points among seniors, leads by 15 points among women, leads by 15 points in the greater Twin Cities and by 11 points in Southern MN. Trump battles Clinton to a draw among middle-income voters, but Clinton leads by 12 points among the least affluent voters and by 9 points among the most affluent voters.

Trump leads among voters focused on immigration, terrorism and national security. Clinton leads among voters focused on the economy, the environment and education. Trump leads by 20 points among independent men. Clinton leads by 10 points among independent women. In rural Minnesota, Trump leads 2:1 among men, runs even with Clinton among women. In suburban Minnesota, Trump leads by 4 among men, Clinton leads by 13 among women.

52% of those voting for Clinton say they cast their ballot enthusiastically, compared with 54% of Trump voters. 45% of Clinton voters say they cast their vote "with reservations," compared to 44% of Trump voters. 58% of Clinton voters are voting "for" Clinton, compared to 39% who are voting "against Trump." 52% of Trump voters are voting "for Trump," compared to 46% who are voting "against Clinton."

Filtering and Context:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Minnesota adults 09/16/16 through 09/20/16. Of the adults, 743 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 625 were determined by SurveyUSA to return a ballot on or before the 11/08/16 deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (65% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (35% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. 6% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA that they almost always vote in a Presidential election but will not this year, because they do not like the candidates on the ballot. 2% of registered voters tell SurveyUSA they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will this year because they are particularly drawn to one of the candidates. Minnesota last voted for a Republican for President in 1972, when Richard Nixon carried 49 states. In 2012, Obama defeated Mitt Romney by 8 points. In 2008, Obama defeated John McCain by 10 points. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry defeated George W. Bush by 3 points in Bush's attempt for a 2nd term. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore defeated Bush by 2 points in Bush's bid for a 1st term.

If the election for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or some other candidate?

625 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Issue						Urbanity			Attend Church			Evangelical		Military Househo		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Suburban		Rural		Independent		HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Immigrat	Terroris	Economy	National	Educatio	Environm	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men
Donald Trump (R)	244	138	106	31	93	66	54	124	120	59	81	61	25	4	7	4	140	91	10	69	116	39	5	4	52	74	64	42	0	1	41	111	83	52	94	95	108	101	88	147	41	102	94	41	94	98	76	168	133	29	40	43	61	50	44	39	55	36	17
Hillary Clinton (D)	287	133	154	48	75	85	77	124	163	6	8	6	18	54	110	81	14	78	191	13	32	72	91	66	15	47	98	38	31	29	84	125	63	113	82	84	55	206	59	211	34	96	143	57	93	121	92	195	189	38	26	34	56	69	22	40	32	46	8
Gary Johnson (L)	37	24	13	12	16	6	3	29	9	0	7	10	10	4	5	0	7	23	5	0	8	14	11	3	3	4	10	5	5	3	8	19	10	15	13	9	6	25	12	24	3	15	18	9	13	14	22	16	19	5	7	7	14	6	5	5	15	8	2
Jill Stein (G)	11	4	7	4	3	3	2	6	4	0	0	1	4	6	0	0	0	11	0	0	1	6	2	2	1	1	5	1	1	1	2	8	1	5	1	4	2	6	2	9	1	7	2	3	6	2	6	4	8	0	1	1	3	6	1	0	4	7	1
Other	8	4	4	2	1	1	4	3	6	1	3	0	1	1	1	0	4	3	1	1	3	2	0	1	0	2	2	2	0	1	3	3	3	1	1	6	3	3	3	6	2	4	2	3	3	2	2	7	5	2	1	0	3	0	0	3	1	2	1
Undecided	38	12	26	16	18	2	3	34	4	3	2	5	3	14	5	0	5	21	5	3	6	13	9	3	1	12	8	6	6	1	11	13	13	11	12	15	7	22	14	23	8	17	12	19	7	10	24	14	19	8	9	2	4	9	2	12	10	12	5
Total	625	314	311	113	206	163	143	319	306	70	101	83	61	83	127	84	171	227	211	86	166	146	118	78	70	141	187	94	44	37	149	278	173	197	204	212	181	364	177	420	89	242	272	132	215	247	221	404	373	82	84	86	139	140	74	99	116	111	33
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	50%	50%	18%	33%	26%	23%	51%	49%	11%	16%	13%	10%	13%	20%	14%	27%	37%	34%	14%	27%	24%	19%	13%	11%	23%	30%	15%	7%	6%	24%	45%	28%	32%	33%	35%	30%	60%	29%	69%	15%	40%	45%	22%	36%	42%	35%	65%	60%	13%	13%	14%	22%	22%	12%	16%	19%	18%	5%

2	Now, what if the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Donald Trump? And Democrat Hillary Clinton?

625 Likely November Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Issue						Urbanity			Attend Church			Evangelical		Military Househo		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Suburban		Rural		Independent		HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Immigrat	Terroris	Economy	National	Educatio	Environm	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men
Donald Trump (R)	271	148	123	39	105	72	56	143	127	64	83	71	27	6	9	4	147	104	13	74	128	45	8	5	53	82	70	48	2	1	42	124	96	61	102	104	118	115	98	163	42	115	106	47	101	111	92	179	148	33	45	45	69	55	46	50	60	44	18
Hillary Clinton (D)	308	143	165	61	81	87	79	142	166	5	9	7	24	65	114	80	15	96	193	11	33	77	105	68	15	47	106	42	35	33	96	132	66	124	90	87	54	224	65	227	41	108	147	70	98	125	109	199	205	42	28	34	59	73	22	44	43	53	13
Undecided	46	23	23	14	20	4	8	34	12	1	9	5	10	12	4	1	9	27	5	1	5	24	5	6	3	11	11	3	7	3	12	22	11	12	13	21	9	25	13	30	6	19	19	16	17	10	20	26	21	7	11	8	11	12	6	5	14	13	2
Total	625	314	311	113	206	163	143	319	306	70	101	83	61	83	127	84	171	227	211	86	166	146	118	78	70	141	187	94	44	37	149	278	173	197	204	212	181	364	177	420	89	242	272	132	215	247	221	404	373	82	84	86	139	140	74	99	116	111	33
Composition of Likely November Voters	100%	50%	50%	18%	33%	26%	23%	51%	49%	11%	16%	13%	10%	13%	20%	14%	27%	37%	34%	14%	27%	24%	19%	13%	11%	23%	30%	15%	7%	6%	24%	45%	28%	32%	33%	35%	30%	60%	29%	69%	15%	40%	45%	22%	36%	42%	35%	65%	60%	13%	13%	14%	22%	22%	12%	16%	19%	18%	5%

Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?

271 Trump Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Issue						Urbanity			Attend Church			Evangelical		Military Househo		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Suburban		Rural		Independent		HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Immigrat	Terroris	Economy	National	Educatio	Environm	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men
For Trump	140	79	62	20	46	43	31	66	74	38	45	33	14	2	5	1	83	50	6	39	76	19	1	3	31	50	29	25	0	0	27	62	46	30	54	55	62	58	52	84	23	65	50	27	51	57	37	103	75	13	26	26	34	28	25	21	25	24	9
Against Clinton	126	69	57	18	58	26	24	76	50	26	37	37	12	4	2	2	63	53	4	35	51	24	7	2	22	31	40	21	2	1	15	59	48	31	45	47	54	56	43	77	20	48	53	20	47	52	53	72	70	18	19	18	35	24	21	27	34	19	9
Not Sure	5	0	4	0	1	3	0	1	3	0	1	1	0	0	2	0	1	1	2	1	1	2	0	0	0	2	0	2	0	0	0	3	1	0	2	2	2	1	2	2	0	2	2	0	2	2	1	3	2	2	0	0	0	3	0	1	0	1	0
Total	271	148	123	39	105	72	56	143	127	64	83	71	27	6	9	4	147	104	13	74	128	45	8	5	53	82	70	48	2	1	42	124	96	61	102	104	118	115	98	163	42	115	106	47	101	111	92	179	148	33	45	45	69	55	46	50	60	44	18
Composition of Trump Voters	100%	55%	45%	14%	39%	27%	21%	53%	47%	24%	31%	26%	10%	2%	3%	1%	54%	39%	5%	28%	47%	17%	3%	2%	19%	30%	26%	18%	1%	0%	15%	46%	36%	23%	38%	39%	45%	43%	37%	62%	16%	44%	40%	18%	39%	43%	34%	66%	55%	12%	17%	16%	26%	20%	17%	18%	22%	16%	7%

Do you vote for Trump enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

271 Trump Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Issue						Urbanity			Attend Church			Evangelical		Military Househo		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Suburban		Rural		Independent		HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Immigrat	Terroris	Economy	National	Educatio	Environm	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men
Enthusiastically	145	86	59	21	46	44	34	67	78	48	41	35	12	2	5	0	90	49	5	50	68	20	1	1	33	51	32	23	0	1	29	62	48	36	52	56	67	60	56	82	27	66	47	29	52	58	38	107	79	12	26	28	35	27	26	22	30	19	12
With Reservations	119	59	60	18	56	25	20	74	45	15	39	36	14	4	2	4	54	55	5	24	56	23	8	3	19	28	37	24	2	0	13	60	44	25	47	44	48	53	39	77	15	44	58	17	47	49	53	67	68	19	16	16	33	27	19	25	29	25	6
Not Sure	6	3	3	0	3	3	1	3	4	1	3	1	0	0	2	0	3	1	2	1	3	2	0	0	0	4	1	1	0	0	0	3	4	0	2	4	3	2	2	4	1	5	1	1	2	4	1	5	1	2	3	0	1	1	2	2	1	0	0
Total	271	148	123	39	105	72	56	143	127	64	83	71	27	6	9	4	147	104	13	74	128	45	8	5	53	82	70	48	2	1	42	124	96	61	102	104	118	115	98	163	42	115	106	47	101	111	92	179	148	33	45	45	69	55	46	50	60	44	18
Composition of Trump Voters	100%	55%	45%	14%	39%	27%	21%	53%	47%	24%	31%	26%	10%	2%	3%	1%	54%	39%	5%	28%	47%	17%	3%	2%	19%	30%	26%	18%	1%	0%	15%	46%	36%	23%	38%	39%	45%	43%	37%	62%	16%	44%	40%	18%	39%	43%	34%	66%	55%	12%	17%	16%	26%	20%	17%	18%	22%	16%	7%

Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?

308 Clinton Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Issue						Urbanity			Attend Church			Evangelical		Military Househo		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Suburban		Rural		Independent		HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 5.6 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Immigrat	Terroris	Economy	National	Educatio	Environm	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men
For Clinton	178	84	94	29	40	57	52	69	109	5	8	2	6	25	69	62	12	32	131	10	19	33	63	43	10	27	62	22	25	17	62	68	38	60	54	58	39	120	39	126	20	58	91	38	55	75	46	132	117	23	14	23	31	37	14	24	10	22	3
Against Trump	120	55	65	30	38	27	24	69	51	1	0	5	16	38	43	14	1	59	57	2	11	42	41	22	4	17	44	19	9	13	31	59	25	62	32	25	15	97	25	93	18	46	53	30	41	45	60	60	80	17	13	11	27	32	7	19	31	28	10
Not Sure	10	4	6	2	3	3	3	5	6	0	1	0	2	2	2	3	1	4	5	0	2	2	1	2	1	4	0	1	1	3	3	4	2	2	3	4	0	7	2	7	3	4	3	2	2	5	3	7	8	2	1	0	1	3	1	1	2	3	1
Total	308	143	165	61	81	87	79	142	166	5	9	7	24	65	114	80	15	96	193	11	33	77	105	68	15	47	106	42	35	33	96	132	66	124	90	87	54	224	65	227	41	108	147	70	98	125	109	199	205	42	28	34	59	73	22	44	43	53	13
Composition of Clinton Voters	100%	46%	54%	20%	26%	28%	26%	46%	54%	2%	3%	2%	8%	21%	37%	26%	5%	31%	63%	4%	11%	26%	35%	22%	5%	15%	34%	14%	11%	11%	32%	44%	22%	41%	30%	29%	18%	75%	22%	76%	14%	36%	50%	24%	33%	43%	35%	65%	66%	14%	9%	11%	19%	24%	7%	14%	14%	17%	4%

Do you vote for Clinton enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

308 Clinton Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Party Affiliation							Party Affiliation			Ideology					Issue						Urbanity			Attend Church			Evangelical		Military Househo		Education			Income			Cell Phone / Lan		Region				Suburban		Rural		Independent		HS Educa
Credibility Interval: ± 5.7 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Strong R	Republic	Indy Lea	Independ	Indy Lea	Democrat	Strong D	Republic	Independ	Democrat	Very Con	Somewhat	Moderate	Somewhat	Very Lib	Immigrat	Terroris	Economy	National	Educatio	Environm	Urban	Suburban	Rural	Never	Occasion	Regularl	Yes	No	Yes	No	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Cell Pho	Landline	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men	Women	Men
Enthusiastically	159	69	90	23	37	51	48	60	100	2	2	1	9	23	58	61	4	33	119	9	10	38	51	45	7	27	56	18	20	15	59	57	34	55	50	50	35	110	33	116	22	47	84	33	51	68	37	122	108	17	13	22	21	36	10	24	11	22	5
With Reservations	137	68	69	32	44	33	29	76	62	3	7	6	14	38	52	18	10	57	69	2	22	37	47	22	7	18	45	23	13	18	30	72	31	64	36	34	18	106	25	106	10	60	61	28	46	55	65	72	86	25	15	11	37	34	12	19	27	30	3
Not Sure	12	5	6	6	1	3	2	7	5	0	1	0	1	5	4	1	1	6	5	0	1	2	6	1	1	2	5	1	1	0	7	2	1	5	4	4	1	8	7	5	9	1	2	8	1	2	7	5	11	0	1	0	0	2	0	1	5	1	5
Total	308	143	165	61	81	87	79	142	166	5	9	7	24	65	114	80	15	96	193	11	33	77	105	68	15	47	106	42	35	33	96	132	66	124	90	87	54	224	65	227	41	108	147	70	98	125	109	199	205	42	28	34	59	73	22	44	43	53	13
Composition of Clinton Voters	100%	46%	54%	20%	26%	28%	26%	46%	54%	2%	3%	2%	8%	21%	37%	26%	5%	31%	63%	4%	11%	26%	35%	22%	5%	15%	34%	14%	11%	11%	32%	44%	22%	41%	30%	29%	18%	75%	22%	76%	14%	36%	50%	24%	33%	43%	35%	65%	66%	14%	9%	11%	19%	24%	7%	14%	14%	17%	4%