|Northup Starts Well Behind in Bid to Re-Take KY3 Seat From Yarmuth:
In an election for the US House of Representatives from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 06/09/08, 148 days from the November general election, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth defeats former Republican representative Anne Northup in a rematch of the 2006 KY3 election, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Yarmuth 57%, Northup 40%. Northup runs 8 points weaker today than she did in 2006, when she lost to Yarmuth 51% to 48%. Yarmuth runs 6 points stronger than he did in 2006. In between 2006 and today, Northup run for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher. Today: Yarmuth leads among young and old, male and female, white and black. 15% of Republicans cross over and vote for Democrat Yarmuth; 16% of Democrats cross over and vote for Republican Northup. Independents split. Northup represented the district for 5 terms, first elected in 1996. In 2004, Northup won with 60% of the vote. The district is watched nationally as a barometer of how other districts may vote. In SurveyUSA's release today, 33% of likely voters are Republican, identical to the 33% who said they were Republican in SurveyUSA's final 2006 pre-election poll. But the number of likely voters who say they are Democrats is up from 54% in SurveyUSA's final 2006 pre-election poll to 60% today.