Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13983
Northup Starts Well Behind in Bid to Re-Take KY3 Seat From Yarmuth: In an election for the US House of Representatives from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District today, 06/09/08, 148 days from the November general election, Democratic incumbent John Yarmuth defeats former Republican representative Anne Northup in a rematch of the 2006 KY3 election, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Yarmuth 57%, Northup 40%. Northup runs 8 points weaker today than she did in 2006, when she lost to Yarmuth 51% to 48%. Yarmuth runs 6 points stronger than he did in 2006. In between 2006 and today, Northup run for Governor of Kentucky and lost in the GOP primary to then incumbent Ernie Fletcher. Today: Yarmuth leads among young and old, male and female, white and black. 15% of Republicans cross over and vote for Democrat Yarmuth; 16% of Democrats cross over and vote for Republican Northup. Independents split. Northup represented the district for 5 terms, first elected in 1996. In 2004, Northup won with 60% of the vote. The district is watched nationally as a barometer of how other districts may vote. In SurveyUSA's release today, 33% of likely voters are Republican, identical to the 33% who said they were Republican in SurveyUSA's final 2006 pre-election poll. But the number of likely voters who say they are Democrats is up from 54% in SurveyUSA's final 2006 pre-election poll to 60% today.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District 06/06/08 - 06/08/08. Of the adults, 819 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 646 were identified by SurveyUSA as being likely to vote in the 11/04/08 general election.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Anne Northup? Or, Democrat John Yarmuth?
646 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your Mind
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad
Anne Northup (R)40%42%38%30%42%43%43%37%43%45%16%80%16%48%79%29%14%46%34%32%59%22%40%39%
John Yarmuth (D)57%55%59%65%56%54%55%59%54%52%82%15%82%47%17%68%85%51%62%67%39%76%50%60%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%21%32%26%21%53%47%83%14%33%60%6%28%40%19%50%27%22%47%48%17%82%