Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19394

In Minnesota -- Obama Carries the North Star State, 6 Atop Romney 3 Months Till Voting Starts; Klobuchar Re-Elected to U.S. Senate: In an election for President of the United States in Minnesota today, 07/20/12, three months till voting begins, Barack Obama captures the North Star State's 10 electoral votes, defeating Mitt Romney 46% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis / St. Paul.

Romney and Obama are effectively even among male voters. All of Obama's advantage comes from female voters, where Obama leads by 14 points. Romney edges Obama among Minnesota's Independents, but not by enough to offset Obama's 2:1 advantage among Minnesota's moderates. Romney leads in Northeastern MN, but Obama leads in the rest of the state.

Voters are divided over whether job creation or health care is the most important issue facing Minnesotans. Importantly: those who say health care is most important split evenly between Obama and Romney. Those who say job creation is most important split evenly between Obama and Romney. Neither candidate has an advantage on these issues in Minnesota.

Romney voters are divided on which Republican Romney should pick as his running mate. 36% name former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty. 29% name Florida's U.S. Senator Marco Rubio.

In an election for U.S. Senator from Minnesota today, incumbent DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar soundly defeats Republican challenger Kurt Bills, 55% to 31%. Klobuchar leads among men and women, young and old, rich and poor, and in all regions of the state. 21% of those who vote for Mitt Romney for President cross over and vote for the DFL candidate for U.S. Senate.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults 07/17/12 through 07/19/12. Of them, 621 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 552 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before Election Day 11/06/12. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (74% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (26% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Mitt Romney (R)	219	112	107	41	66	65	48	107	113	42	177	147	10	59	27	180	154	51	7	219	0	37	87	93	38	83	92	136	20	25	38
Barack Obama (D)	253	109	145	72	56	76	49	128	125	68	185	11	184	53	5	244	17	105	125	0	253	42	92	115	88	100	57	157	36	31	30
Other	41	25	16	12	16	9	5	28	14	10	31	5	7	26	2	39	6	30	4	0	0	7	23	10	11	22	6	19	5	9	8
Undecided	38	20	18	14	12	10	4	25	13	21	18	12	9	16	1	36	12	20	5	0	0	4	22	11	13	14	10	26	6	3	3
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

Minnesota will also elect a United States Senator in November. If the election for United States Senator from Minnesota were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Kurt Bills? DFL candidate Amy Klobuchar? Or one of the other candidates?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Kurt Bills (R)	171	94	77	32	54	53	32	86	85	39	131	119	10	40	27	136	123	39	6	151	8	24	65	81	26	69	71	104	17	23	27
Amy Klobuchar (DFL)	303	137	166	76	67	95	65	143	160	66	237	28	183	82	3	292	43	132	118	47	224	51	125	121	100	113	78	183	42	34	44
Other	29	14	14	6	11	5	7	17	12	6	23	9	8	11	2	27	7	10	7	8	8	11	10	7	11	12	5	15	4	6	3
Undecided	50	21	29	25	17	7	2	42	8	30	20	18	9	22	3	46	16	23	9	13	14	5	24	21	13	24	11	34	5	5	5
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

Which one issue will be most important when casting your votes in for President and US Senate? Health care? Job creation? Taxes? Gas prices? War on terrorism? Education? Or something else?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Health Care	169	79	90	31	47	50	41	78	91	45	123	50	76	39	11	155	55	66	46	71	84	35	60	73	44	79	44	89	26	25	29
Job Creation	173	91	83	32	42	61	39	74	99	39	134	52	63	53	11	158	56	71	38	68	81	25	69	74	40	70	55	109	21	19	24
Taxes	84	49	36	24	32	20	8	56	28	28	56	37	17	27	4	74	40	31	11	44	28	12	34	37	21	24	38	58	8	9	9
Gas Prices	24	7	17	15	3	4	2	18	6	4	20	4	16	3	1	23	6	4	14	4	16	2	17	5	17	5	2	18	2	0	4
War On Terrorism	9	6	3	4	2	1	1	7	2	1	8	4	4	1	1	8	1	4	3	4	1	2	7	0	2	5	2	4	1	4	0
Education	19	5	14	9	4	5	2	13	6	7	13	4	9	6	0	19	2	7	11	1	15	3	8	9	5	7	8	13	2	3	1
Something Else	46	21	25	15	11	11	9	26	19	10	35	14	10	22	5	40	18	15	12	17	13	9	13	23	14	17	10	29	5	6	5
Not Sure	28	9	19	7	8	9	4	16	13	8	21	9	13	4	1	23	11	7	7	11	15	3	16	9	8	11	7	17	3	1	6
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

4	Who would you most like to see Mitt Romney choose as his Vice Presidential running mate? Former Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty? Ohio Senator Rob Portman? Florida Senator Marco Rubio? Wisconsin Representative Paul Ryan? Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal? Or someone else?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Pawlenty	191	84	107	69	48	42	32	117	74	57	134	61	75	51	8	178	64	70	52	78	90	29	85	75	58	82	47	112	26	22	31
Portman	22	15	7	2	3	12	5	5	17	5	17	8	9	5	2	20	11	6	4	12	8	2	14	6	4	14	3	11	4	2	5
Rubio	89	49	40	10	25	36	19	34	55	16	73	56	16	18	14	73	57	23	8	64	20	17	35	38	17	36	34	50	10	11	18
Ryan	39	29	11	13	8	11	7	21	18	7	33	13	12	12	2	36	14	14	9	21	11	7	12	20	6	11	20	21	5	8	6
Jindal	19	8	11	1	7	8	3	8	11	2	17	8	5	3	1	17	4	7	6	8	8	4	4	11	3	9	7	14	2	2	1
Someone Else	114	52	62	20	30	32	33	50	65	18	97	17	51	43	7	103	24	52	32	25	69	27	35	50	36	37	36	77	10	19	9
Not Sure	77	29	47	22	29	18	7	52	25	38	39	12	42	21	1	73	14	32	30	10	47	6	40	31	27	30	19	51	10	5	11
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

5	An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot defines marriage as between one man and one woman. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Vote For	289	142	147	68	75	80	66	143	146	55	234	132	79	75	29	251	152	85	43	174	79	50	132	105	84	108	89	164	37	38	51
Vote Against	206	103	103	61	57	61	27	117	88	68	138	22	114	65	5	198	21	93	89	24	154	31	67	105	47	85	66	133	26	23	23
Not Vote	27	9	18	1	12	9	5	13	14	5	22	14	8	4	0	22	7	11	5	12	11	4	11	9	6	11	7	17	3	3	3
Not Sure	30	13	18	7	7	9	8	14	17	13	17	8	8	11	0	30	8	16	4	9	9	6	14	11	12	15	3	23	2	3	2
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

6	An amendment to the Minnesota Constitution on the ballot would require voters to show photo I.D.'s in order to vote on Election Day. Will you vote FOR the amendment? Against the amendment? Or not vote on the measure?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Vote For	360	171	189	87	106	102	65	193	167	90	270	151	99	100	33	312	160	129	57	193	114	59	156	139	92	143	112	224	41	48	48
Vote Against	157	81	76	39	37	47	35	76	81	35	122	17	94	45	1	155	19	66	70	19	121	25	52	78	44	61	47	93	21	15	28
Not Vote	11	5	5	3	1	2	4	5	6	3	7	3	5	1	0	9	4	3	3	4	7	3	4	4	6	3	2	7	2	2	1
Not Sure	24	9	15	8	5	9	2	13	11	13	11	4	10	9	0	24	6	8	10	4	11	3	12	9	8	12	3	14	4	3	3
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

If the 2012 elections for the Minnesota Legislature were held today, would you be more likely to vote for a Republican candidate? a Democratic candidate? Independence Party candidate? Or some other candidate?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Republican	220	110	110	40	72	62	45	112	108	52	169	154	10	53	28	183	149	53	13	186	14	34	88	96	41	87	85	135	25	28	32
Democratic	247	109	138	76	51	75	45	127	120	59	188	7	186	48	5	239	20	107	113	12	215	44	94	104	86	97	54	147	31	31	38
Independence Party	43	24	18	7	14	12	10	21	21	9	33	2	5	34	1	40	9	18	13	10	15	4	24	14	11	15	15	27	5	6	4
Other	12	8	4	2	4	2	3	6	5	5	7	2	1	8	0	10	4	7	1	3	1	3	5	4	3	7	2	8	2	1	0
Undecided	31	15	16	12	8	8	3	20	11	17	14	9	8	13	1	29	6	21	1	8	9	5	12	13	9	12	9	19	5	2	5
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

8	Which one issue will be most important when casting your vote for a Minnesota legislator? Job creation? Education? Taxes? Health care? Or something else?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Job Creation	179	91	88	38	38	61	42	77	102	49	130	51	74	48	10	164	52	78	42	64	89	32	72	70	51	71	49	116	25	18	20
Education	84	28	56	29	24	18	14	53	32	23	61	13	48	23	1	83	9	41	34	8	64	13	26	45	15	43	26	51	17	8	9
Taxes	148	92	56	34	47	45	22	81	67	36	112	67	32	44	13	129	82	39	22	92	37	20	64	63	31	59	56	82	14	23	29
Health Care	96	37	60	21	33	22	21	54	43	25	71	28	42	25	6	87	30	34	32	39	47	17	49	30	35	35	25	57	7	12	20
Something Else	34	16	17	12	7	10	5	19	15	7	27	9	10	14	4	28	12	10	11	12	12	5	9	19	12	9	8	23	3	6	1
Not Sure	11	3	8	3	1	4	2	4	7	1	10	6	3	1	1	8	4	4	0	4	4	3	4	3	5	3	1	8	2	1	0
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

9	The Minnesota Legislature passed a Vikings stadium bill in May. If a lawmaker voted in favor of the Vikings stadium would that make you more likely to vote for him in November? Less likely? Or would it make no difference?

552 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
More Likely	127	80	47	44	34	30	19	78	49	39	88	34	61	29	8	116	37	44	44	41	76	17	57	52	37	50	37	77	14	16	21
Less Likely	181	94	87	46	53	51	32	99	83	46	135	53	61	65	16	161	72	64	43	79	63	28	76	77	52	69	53	106	18	26	32
No Difference	232	90	142	46	59	72	54	105	126	50	182	80	84	61	9	215	73	94	52	95	111	44	88	95	56	94	73	147	34	25	26
Not Sure	12	3	9	2	3	7	0	6	7	6	6	8	3	1	1	10	6	4	2	5	4	2	4	7	5	5	2	7	2	1	2
Total	552	266	286	138	150	159	106	287	265	142	411	175	209	155	35	500	188	206	141	219	253	91	224	230	150	219	166	337	68	68	80
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	25%	27%	29%	19%	52%	48%	26%	74%	32%	38%	28%	6%	91%	34%	38%	26%	40%	46%	17%	41%	42%	28%	41%	31%	61%	12%	12%	14%

10	Should the new Vikings stadium have a retractable roof?

621 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			POTUS Vote		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney	Obama	High Sch	Some Col	College	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Twin Cit	S MN	W MN	NE MN
Yes	343	178	165	98	96	85	64	194	149	99	244	105	134	94	21	304	108	129	90	116	153	63	134	141	100	130	103	224	42	41	35
No	145	76	69	51	40	35	18	92	53	46	99	53	45	45	7	134	51	58	32	59	48	20	64	61	31	67	45	74	17	20	33
Not Sure	133	53	80	25	26	53	30	51	82	24	109	39	46	42	10	113	50	51	28	45	53	32	53	44	45	48	31	72	18	23	20
Total	621	307	314	174	162	173	112	336	285	169	452	196	225	180	39	551	209	238	151	219	253	114	251	246	176	244	179	371	77	84	89
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	49%	51%	28%	26%	28%	18%	54%	46%	27%	73%	32%	36%	29%	6%	89%	34%	39%	25%	40%	46%	19%	41%	40%	29%	41%	30%	60%	12%	14%	14%