Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17174
 
Nationwide Red Tide Floats Chabot's Boat, Poised to Re-Capture House Seat in Ohio's 1st District: In an election for US House of Representatives from Ohio's 1st Congressional District today, just as early voting begins, Republican Steve Chabot is positioned to re-take from Democrat Steve Driehaus the seat in Congress Chabot held for 7 terms before losing it to Driehaus in 2008, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for the Cincinnati Enquirer.

It's Chabot 53%, Driehaus 41%, in interviews conducted 09/28/10 and 09/29/10 and released today, 09/30/10, one month till votes are counted. Voters who are enthusiastic vote 2:1 Republican. Voters who cast a ballot with less enthusiasm than in previous years vote 2:1 Democrat.

Republicans vote Republican 19:1. Democrats vote Democrat 7:1. Independents break Republican 5:3.

Predictably, those with a favorable opinion of the Tea Party vote Republican. Those with an un-favorable opinion of the Tea Party vote Democrat. But: Those with a neutral opinion of the Tea Party break Republican 2:1, and those are votes Driehaus must have to hold the seat.

More affluent voters break Republican as they often do and as is expected. But less affluent voters also break Republican in this district in this election year, which is not typical. These are votes Driehaus needs to hold the seat.

Pro-life voters go 4:1 Republican. Pro-choice voters vote 3:1 Democrat.

Chabot is at or above 50% among men and women and voters age 35+. Blacks overwhelmingly vote for the Democrat, but there are too few mobilized blacks in 2010 to wipe out Chabot's 27-point advantage among the district's white voters.

 
700 voters from Ohio's 1st Congressional District were interviewed 09/28/10 and 09/29/10 using Registration Based Sample from Aristotle. Of the 700, 594 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to return a ballot on or before Election Day 11/02/10. Chabot won with 65% in 2002, 60% in 2004, 52% in 2006, before losing with 48% to Driehaus' 52% in 2008. Early voting began 09/28/10.
 
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Steve Chabot? Democrat Steve Driehaus? Libertarian Jim Berns? Or Green Party candidate Rich Stevenson?
594 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVote For US HousMain ReasonEnthusiasmAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtSteve ChSteve DrMessage Control Time ForEconomyHealth CMoreLessSameYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Steve Chabot (R)53%55%51%48%50%53%60%49%56%61%17%****100%0%87%38%61%52%49%65%33%41%45%53%93%12%54%85%35%5%91%8%59%47%49%58%59%52%37%77%24%59%48%50%54%
Steve Driehaus (D)41%38%44%48%41%42%33%44%39%34%76%****0%100%7%61%25%44%44%31%61%50%53%40%5%84%34%11%57%91%4%88%30%39%46%35%36%42%53%18%71%35%47%42%41%
Jim Berns (L)3%4%2%3%6%2%1%5%1%2%3%****0%0%3%0%5%2%3%2%2%4%1%3%0%2%7%2%4%3%3%2%4%5%3%2%1%3%8%2%2%4%2%3%3%
Rich Stevenson (G)1%1%1%1%1%2%2%1%2%1%0%****0%0%2%0%4%0%1%1%3%1%1%1%1%1%3%1%1%1%1%1%3%2%1%2%1%1%1%1%1%1%1%2%1%
Undecided2%2%2%0%3%1%4%2%2%2%4%****0%0%1%1%4%2%2%1%2%4%0%2%1%2%3%1%2%0%1%1%5%7%1%3%2%2%2%2%1%2%2%4%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%46%54%19%27%35%19%46%54%78%16%1%4%53%41%11%25%10%18%15%52%9%39%6%94%34%34%31%44%35%15%43%37%14%7%54%46%56%23%22%54%42%35%60%32%68%
 
 
2Which would you say is the main reason for your vote? To send a message to the President? To make sure the party you prefer controls Congress? It's time for a change? Abortion? The economy? Health care? Taxes? Local issues? Or some other reason?
594 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVote For US HousMain ReasonEnthusiasmAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtSteve ChSteve DrMessage Control Time ForEconomyHealth CMoreLessSameYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Message To The President11%12%9%8%9%13%12%9%12%12%6%****18%2%100%0%0%0%0%14%6%8%6%11%18%5%9%17%6%5%18%4%8%9%7%15%10%11%12%14%8%15%8%10%11%
Control Of Congress25%23%27%24%24%25%30%24%27%24%36%****18%38%0%100%0%0%0%25%25%26%21%26%24%35%17%17%26%46%18%37%18%21%27%24%21%27%35%18%35%20%29%27%25%
Time For a Change10%9%11%11%9%9%13%10%11%9%15%****12%6%0%0%100%0%0%11%7%11%25%9%11%10%10%13%9%3%13%6%13%10%9%12%9%14%8%11%9%12%9%12%10%
Abortion4%4%5%6%3%4%5%5%4%5%2%****7%2%0%0%0%0%0%5%2%5%4%4%7%1%5%8%2%0%6%2%6%4%4%5%7%1%0%8%0%2%5%6%3%
Economy18%19%18%10%24%21%16%18%19%19%14%****18%20%0%0%0%100%0%18%21%18%14%19%17%20%18%18%21%15%18%18%21%17%19%18%21%17%12%20%16%22%16%16%19%
Health Care15%13%16%15%15%15%13%15%14%15%12%****14%16%0%0%0%0%100%16%14%13%18%14%12%17%15%13%17%17%14%15%15%11%18%10%14%15%15%14%16%13%15%13%15%
Taxes5%6%4%6%4%6%4%5%5%5%3%****7%2%0%0%0%0%0%6%8%3%4%5%6%2%7%7%4%1%5%4%8%4%4%6%6%4%4%6%4%5%4%4%5%
Local Issues6%7%5%10%6%4%3%8%4%5%7%****3%8%0%0%0%0%0%5%11%5%6%6%2%7%8%4%6%10%4%8%4%8%5%7%6%6%5%5%7%5%7%6%6%
Other5%6%5%9%5%4%3%7%4%5%2%****3%7%0%0%0%0%0%2%6%9%1%5%2%3%10%2%8%4%3%7%6%10%7%3%4%3%9%4%6%4%5%4%5%
Not Sure1%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%2%****0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%0%1%0%2%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%46%54%19%27%35%19%46%54%78%16%1%4%53%41%11%25%10%18%15%52%9%39%6%94%34%34%31%44%35%15%43%37%14%7%54%46%56%23%22%54%42%35%60%32%68%
 
 
3Compared to previous elections, are you more enthusiastic about voting in this election? Less enthusiastic? Or, no more or less enthusiastic?
594 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVote For US HousMain ReasonEnthusiasmAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtSteve ChSteve DrMessage Control Time ForEconomyHealth CMoreLessSameYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
More52%57%47%59%47%51%53%52%51%53%52%****64%39%65%51%53%50%57%100%0%0%64%51%67%43%46%67%40%45%69%43%32%33%46%59%55%51%47%60%43%55%50%49%54%
Less9%7%10%8%9%8%9%9%8%8%11%****5%13%5%8%6%10%8%0%100%0%8%9%6%10%9%5%15%6%4%12%13%8%9%9%8%11%8%6%12%9%9%9%8%
No More Or Less39%36%42%33%43%41%37%39%40%39%36%****31%48%30%41%40%39%35%0%0%100%25%40%27%46%45%28%46%49%26%45%54%56%45%32%37%37%45%34%44%35%41%42%38%
Not Sure1%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%****0%1%0%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%2%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%3%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%46%54%19%27%35%19%46%54%78%16%1%4%53%41%11%25%10%18%15%52%9%39%6%94%34%34%31%44%35%15%43%37%14%7%54%46%56%23%22%54%42%35%60%32%68%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.