Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16581
 
Moran Pushes Further Ahead in KS GOP US Senate Primary Contest: In a Republican Primary for US Senate in Kansas today, 05/24/10, Jerry Moran decisively defeats Todd Tiahrt, according to this latest SurveyUSA's pre-primary tracking poll conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita and KCTV-TV Kansas City. Today, Moran gets 52% of the vote; Tiahrt gets 29%. Robert Londerholm gets 4%; 15% are undecided. The primary is in 10 weeks.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 2 months ago, Moran is up 10 points; Tiahrt is down 3. In 8 SurveyUSA tracking polls, Moran has never trailed, though this is the first time he is above 50%. In 8 tracking polls, Tiahrt has never polled above 38%, though this is only the 2nd time he is below 30%. Click on the "Triangle T" to access SurveyUSA interactive tracking graphs, a SurveyUSA exclusive, which permit a time-series analysis of each demographic sub-population.

Tiahrt, who represents Kansas' 4th US Congressional District, in Southeastern Kansas, leads by 22 points in that part of the state, but does not receive more than 34% of the vote among any demographic subgroup or in any other part of the state. Moran, who represents Kansas' 1st Congressional District, which takes up most of the Western two-thirds of the state, leads 4:1 in Western KS. In Northeastern KS, home to half the state's population, Moran today leads 3:1.

Kansas political parties decide before each primary whether the primary will be open to voters who are not affiliated with any political party; those voters also can register with a party at the polls. SurveyUSA includes currently unaffiliated voters here, where they make up 12% of the electorate. Moran today leads by 22 points among Republicans, up from 12 points 2 months ago; among unaffiliated voters, Moran leads by 20.

Incumbent Republican US Senator Sam Brownback is running for Kansas Governor, and is not seeking reelection to his Senate seat.

 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,500 Kansas adults 05/21/10 through 05/23/10. Of them, 1,301 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 522 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the August 2010 Republican Primary.
 
(candidate names rotated)
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Jerry Moran? Todd Tiahrt? Or Robert Londerholm?
522 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KNortheasSoutheasWestern
Moran52%54%48%58%50%48%53%53%50%51%**63%**53%40%53%57%32%52%52%48%64%53%51%54%59%43%45%56%56%31%72%
Tiahrt29%28%31%22%28%34%31%26%33%31%**12%**31%20%31%30%31%31%28%33%23%25%33%22%28%34%33%29%19%53%18%
Londerholm4%5%3%2%2%8%4%2%6%4%**6%**3%10%3%4%21%4%4%3%3%8%2%9%4%4%4%3%6%3%3%
Undecided15%13%18%18%20%10%11%19%11%13%**18%**13%29%14%10%15%14%16%15%10%15%14%14%10%20%17%12%19%14%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%60%40%16%33%29%22%49%51%90%1%6%3%88%12%62%28%7%50%50%63%17%20%67%31%63%35%33%67%47%32%21%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.