Despite MO GOP Governor Blunt Having Highest Job Approval Since Taking Office, He is Buried If Opposed for Re-Election Today by Democrat Nixon:
Missouri Republican Governor Matt Blunt's Job Approval numbers inched into positive territory in July 2007 for the first time since taking office, according to SurveyUSA's monthly tracking poll, a dramatic improvement from the poor marks Missourians have given Blunt in his first term. Today, 48% of Missourians statewide approve of Blunt's performance, 46% disapprove, a Net Job Approval of "Plus 2." This is the first month Blunt has ever had a "Plus" Net Job Approval. Plus 2 compares with Net Job Approvals of "Minus 30" in March 2006, and Minus 20 or more for most of the months of his administration. Exclusive SurveyUSA tracking data is here.
Against this backdrop,
Blunt can take no comfort in SurveyUSA's first look-ahead to the 2008 MO governor election. In a head-to-head hypothetical matchup against Democratic Attorney General Jay Nixon,
Nixon defeats Blunt 3:2,
carrying every part of the state. The survey of 514 Registered Voters statewide was conducted exclusively for KCTV-TV in Kansas City. Nixon and Blunt are effectively tied among men. But Nixon leads by 37 points among women, a startling gender gap. Nixon leads by 20 points among younger voters, by 18 among older voters. 25% of Missouri Republicans cross-over and vote Democrat in a head-to-head contest today. Independents break 3:2 for Nixon. Blunt carries 67% of the Conservative vote, but loses 73% of the Moderate vote. Blunt runs strongest in the Ozarks, but still trails Nixon by 9 there. Nixon leads by 17 in greater Kansas City, by 19 in Central Missouri and by 25 points in greater St. Louis. The election is in 467 days, on 11/04/08. Nixon is not yet a declared candidate for office. This poll does not attempt to forecast what will happen on election day. This poll is a snapshot of where a hypothetical head-to-head contest stands today. This is not a survey of "likely voters," this is a survey of "registered voters." |