Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15356

MN Governor: Against 9 Possible DFL Challengers, Pawlenty Today Goes 9 for 9 in Bid For 3rd Term: In hypothetical November 2010 gubernatorial match-ups between Minnesota's Republican incumbent governor Tim Pawlenty and nine potential DFL opponents, Pawlenty wins all 9 head-to-heads, though two potential match-ups are tight enough to merit close attention today, 05/20/2009, 531 days before the vote.

In hypothetical head-to-head match-ups, Pawlenty today defeats...
Paul Thissen, a Minneapolis-area state representative, by 19 points.
Tom Bakk, a state senator representing parts of northeast Minnesota, by 18 points.
John Marty, a state senator from Roseville, by 17 points.
Margaret Anderson Kelliher, Speaker of the Minnesota House of Representatives, by 17 points.
Susan Gaertner, County Attorney for Ramsey County, by 14 points.
Matt Entenza, former Minnesota State House Democratic Leader and 2006 candidate for Attorney General, by 14 points.
Chris Coleman, mayor of St. Paul and unrelated to Norm Coleman, by 11 points.

R. T. Rybak, mayor of Minneapolis, today trails Pawlenty by 5 points. Pawlenty leads by 33 points among men; Rybak leads by 15 points among women -- a 48-point gender gap. Pawlenty carries Republicans 7:1; Rybak carries Democrats 5:1; Independents favor Pawlenty by 18 points.

Mark Dayton, former United States Senator from Minnesota, trails Pawlenty by 4 points, within the margin of sampling error and effectively even this far from the election. Pawlenty leads by 23 points among men; Dayton leads by 13 among women -- a 36-point gender gap. Dayton leads in northeastern Minnesota and southern Minnesota; Pawlenty leads in the Twin Cities area and the western portion of the state.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 600 Minnesota adults 05/18/09 through 05/19/09. Of them, 552 identified themselves as being registered to vote and were asked these questions.

Background for this data: the election is 18 months away and is not yet a focus of many Minnesota voters. Pawlenty has served as Minnesota's governor since 2002, while many of the potential Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party challengers are not as familiar across the state. Minnesota has a long history of third-party candidates running strongly in statewide contests; this survey does not name, nor include, possible third party candidates. No conclusions can be drawn about what a 3-way contest might look like "today." Pawlenty has not yet announced whether or not he will seek a third term. A SurveyUSA poll last week found a majority of Minnesota adults do not want Pawlenty to seek re-election. Pawlenty is also a figure in the not yet decided 2008 US Senate election between Norm Coleman and Al Franken, which likely will but possibly won't be decided before the 2010 gubernatorial election. These numbers should be viewed as a first look at the landscape, and are not designed to predict what will happen 531 days from now.

1	Minnesota will elect a Governor in November 2010. If the only two candidates on the ballot are Republican Tim Pawlenty and DFL candidate Matt Entenza, who would you vote for?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	51%	61%	42%	47%	56%	51%	48%	52%	50%	50%	**	**	**	89%	16%	59%	83%	44%	17%	19%	89%	16%	87%	52%	45%	58%	47%
Entenza (DFL)	37%	31%	43%	43%	32%	36%	41%	37%	38%	39%	**	**	**	9%	66%	29%	13%	43%	67%	64%	7%	68%	7%	37%	41%	34%	40%
Undecided	12%	8%	15%	9%	13%	13%	10%	11%	12%	11%	**	**	**	2%	19%	11%	4%	14%	16%	17%	4%	16%	6%	11%	15%	8%	14%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

2	What if the only two candidates on the ballot for Governor are Republican Tim Pawlenty and DFL candidate Tom Bakk ?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	52%	64%	39%	46%	56%	52%	50%	52%	51%	51%	**	**	**	88%	17%	59%	84%	44%	18%	20%	89%	17%	88%	52%	49%	59%	42%
Bakk (DFL)	34%	26%	42%	43%	28%	33%	34%	35%	34%	35%	**	**	**	10%	61%	25%	13%	40%	59%	58%	7%	62%	7%	35%	32%	26%	41%
Undecided	14%	10%	19%	11%	15%	15%	16%	14%	15%	14%	**	**	**	1%	22%	16%	3%	17%	23%	22%	4%	21%	5%	13%	19%	15%	17%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

3	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate John Marty?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	51%	62%	39%	44%	56%	53%	48%	51%	51%	50%	**	**	**	85%	17%	60%	82%	43%	19%	22%	88%	17%	89%	53%	48%	57%	40%
Marty (DFL)	34%	27%	42%	39%	28%	33%	42%	33%	37%	35%	**	**	**	10%	60%	26%	13%	39%	62%	57%	8%	62%	7%	32%	37%	34%	40%
Undecided	15%	11%	19%	17%	16%	14%	11%	17%	12%	15%	**	**	**	5%	23%	14%	5%	19%	18%	21%	4%	21%	5%	15%	15%	9%	20%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

4	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate Susan Gaertner?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	50%	61%	39%	44%	56%	49%	47%	51%	48%	49%	**	**	**	85%	17%	56%	82%	41%	18%	20%	90%	16%	89%	51%	48%	58%	37%
Gaertner (DFL)	36%	29%	43%	42%	30%	36%	38%	35%	37%	37%	**	**	**	10%	63%	28%	14%	40%	63%	60%	7%	64%	7%	36%	36%	33%	40%
Undecided	14%	10%	18%	14%	15%	14%	15%	14%	15%	14%	**	**	**	5%	20%	16%	3%	18%	20%	21%	3%	20%	4%	13%	16%	9%	23%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

5	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate Mark Dayton?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	47%	58%	37%	48%	48%	47%	45%	48%	46%	46%	**	**	**	84%	16%	50%	80%	38%	16%	19%	84%	16%	84%	50%	43%	50%	37%
Dayton (DFL)	43%	35%	50%	42%	42%	42%	46%	42%	44%	43%	**	**	**	12%	71%	37%	16%	50%	72%	68%	13%	71%	14%	41%	47%	44%	43%
Undecided	10%	7%	14%	10%	10%	11%	9%	10%	10%	10%	**	**	**	4%	13%	13%	4%	13%	12%	13%	3%	13%	3%	9%	10%	6%	20%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

6	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate Paul Thissen?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	51%	62%	40%	45%	56%	51%	50%	51%	51%	50%	**	**	**	86%	16%	59%	85%	42%	17%	21%	90%	17%	89%	52%	49%	57%	40%
Thissen (DFL)	32%	26%	37%	40%	26%	30%	32%	32%	31%	32%	**	**	**	9%	56%	23%	10%	36%	61%	54%	6%	58%	6%	31%	32%	29%	37%
Undecided	17%	12%	23%	15%	18%	19%	18%	17%	19%	18%	**	**	**	5%	27%	17%	4%	23%	23%	26%	3%	26%	6%	17%	18%	14%	24%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

7	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate R.T. Rybak ?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	47%	60%	35%	44%	50%	47%	45%	48%	46%	46%	**	**	**	86%	13%	53%	83%	37%	14%	15%	87%	12%	85%	48%	44%	53%	39%
Rybak (DFL)	42%	33%	50%	48%	37%	39%	46%	41%	42%	42%	**	**	**	12%	71%	35%	13%	51%	69%	70%	10%	74%	10%	42%	45%	35%	45%
Undecided	11%	7%	15%	8%	13%	14%	8%	11%	12%	11%	**	**	**	2%	16%	12%	5%	12%	17%	16%	3%	14%	5%	10%	10%	12%	16%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

8	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate Chris Coleman?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	48%	58%	39%	37%	56%	50%	46%	48%	49%	47%	**	**	**	84%	16%	53%	82%	39%	16%	19%	84%	16%	82%	49%	46%	56%	39%
Coleman (DFL)	37%	30%	44%	51%	29%	34%	38%	38%	36%	38%	**	**	**	11%	62%	33%	14%	44%	64%	60%	12%	64%	12%	39%	35%	34%	36%
Undecided	15%	12%	17%	13%	15%	16%	15%	14%	16%	14%	**	**	**	5%	22%	14%	4%	17%	20%	21%	4%	20%	5%	12%	19%	10%	25%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

9	What if it's Pawlenty against DFL candidate Margaret Anderson Kelliher?

551 Registered Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race				Party Affiliation			Ideology			2008 Vote		2008 Sen Vote		Region
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Hispanic	Other	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Obama	McCain	Franken	Coleman	Twin Cit	South MN	West MN	Northeas
Pawlenty (R)	51%	64%	39%	43%	58%	53%	49%	52%	51%	51%	**	**	**	86%	18%	61%	84%	44%	16%	23%	89%	20%	87%	54%	46%	58%	39%
Kelliher (DFL)	34%	26%	42%	44%	27%	32%	34%	34%	33%	35%	**	**	**	10%	60%	25%	11%	38%	62%	56%	8%	59%	8%	33%	35%	31%	39%
Undecided	15%	11%	19%	13%	15%	16%	17%	14%	16%	15%	**	**	**	5%	23%	14%	5%	17%	22%	21%	3%	21%	5%	13%	19%	11%	23%
Total	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%
Composition of Registered Voters	100%	50%	50%	26%	34%	23%	17%	60%	40%	92%	3%	2%	4%	28%	38%	31%	31%	46%	19%	53%	41%	43%	42%	57%	13%	16%	15%

** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.