Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #9568
June MA Gov Primary Data Looks A Lot Like April: In a Democratic Primary for Governor of Massachusetts today, 6/19/06, Deval Patrick edges Tom Reilly and defeats Chris Gabrieli, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 435 Likely Massachusetts Democratic Primary Voters, conducted exclusively for WBZ-TV Boston. Today, 13 weeks to the 9/19/06 Primary, Patrick gets 36%, Reilly 31%, Gabrieli 23%. Since an identical SurveyUSA WBZ-TV poll released two months ago, on 4/10/06, Patrick is unchanged, Reilly is down 2 points, from 33% in April to 31% today, Gabrieli is up 4 points from 19% in April to 23% today. In between SurveyUSA's April release and today's June release, SurveyUSA released data on 5/4/06, based on interviews conducted 5/1/06 through 5/3/06, just after two debates between the candidates were aired on 4/23/06 and 4/27/06. In the May SurveyUSA data, Gabrieli had siphoned middle aged, female, and moderate voters from Patrick, resulting in a 3-way tie among the candidates. All 3 groups (middle-aged voters, female voters and moderate voters) have since rebounded to their April levels. The only real movement in the contest appears to be among voters age 65+, who for the moment are moving to Patrick. In most other demographic groups, the June results are strikingly similar to the April results. The "bump" Gabrieli received after the debates, at Patrick's expense, has apparently dissipated.
Filtering: 2,400 Massachusetts adults were interviewed 6/16/06 - 6/18/06. Of them, 2,057 were registered voters. Of them, 718 were judged to be "likely voters". Of them, 435 were registered Democrats or Independents who chose a Democratic ballot. Crosstabs reflect Likely Democratic Primary voters.
If the Democratic Primary for Governor of Massachusetts were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Chris Gabrieli? Deval Patrick? Or Tom Reilly?
435 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyEducationIncomeRegionGeocoding
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch<$40K$40K - $>$80KW/CentraBoston ASE MA anUrbanSuburban
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%47%53%18%34%29%19%85%5%7%3%68%32%12%37%46%17%18%30%36%21%34%40%21%60%19%21%77%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.