Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13883
 
18 Days To New Mexico GOP Senate Primary, Pearce and Wilson Locked in Fierce Fight: In a Republican Primary for U.S. Senator from New Mexico today, 18 days until votes are counted, Steve Pearce and Heather Wilson are locked in a fierce fight, effectively even, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Today, it's Pearce 49%, Wilson 46%, within the survey's 4.8 percentage point margin of sampling error. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six months ago, Pearce, the U.S. Representative from New Mexico's 2nd Congressional District, is up 12 points. Wilson, who represents New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, is down 10 points. Among conservatives, Pearce leads by 14; among moderates, Wilson leads by 17. Among men, Pearce, a man, leads by 11; among women, Wilson, a woman, leads by 5 -- a 16 point gender gap. Among voters age 18 to 49, Pearce leads by 9; among voters 50+, Pearce and Wilson tie. Among whites, Pearce and Wilson tie; among Hispanics, Pearce leads by 16. Wilson leads by 25 points in Bernalillo County, where Albuquerque is located; Pearce leads by 22 points in the rest of the state. SurveyUSA estimates that 40% of Republican voters will come from Bernalillo County. The larger the turnout from that county, the better Wilson does. Early voting begins May 17; the primary is on June 3.
 
General Election: Democrat Udall Beats Either Republican and Flips Domenici's Seat From Red to Blue: In a hypothetical General Election for U.S. Senator from New Mexico today, 25 weeks to the vote, Democrat Tom Udall defeats either Republican Pearce or Republican Wilson by a nearly identical margin. Today, against Pearce, Udall wins 60% to 36%. Against Wilson, Udall wins 61% to 35%. Udall leads among both men and women, young and old, white and Hispanic, regardless of opponent. 1 in 4 Republicans cross over and vote Democrat; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote Republican.
 
Filtering: 2,200 New Mexico adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/12/08 through 05/14/08. Of them, 1,827 were registered to vote. Of them, 439 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary. These likely Primary voters were included in the Primary Poll portion of the questionnaire. General Election hypothetical match-ups were asked of all registered voters. Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici announced 10/04/07 his intention not to seek a 7th term.
 
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Steve Pearce? Or Heather Wilson?
439 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBernalilRest of
Pearce49%53%45%57%48%43%54%51%48%48%56%49%****55%39%**36%58%
Wilson46%42%50%27%49%54%42%42%48%48%40%46%****41%56%**61%36%
Other3%4%2%14%0%2%3%4%2%3%0%3%****3%3%**2%4%
Undecided2%1%3%2%3%1%1%2%1%1%4%2%****2%2%**1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%54%46%12%28%32%28%40%60%76%18%100%0%0%65%25%3%40%60%
 
if the GENERAL election for United States Senator were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Tom Udall, who would you vote for?
1827 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBernalilRest of
Pearce (R)36%41%32%36%36%35%38%36%36%45%22%73%11%35%74%24%8%36%36%
Udall (D)60%55%64%58%61%61%58%60%60%51%74%23%86%59%23%73%89%59%61%
Undecided4%4%4%6%3%4%4%4%4%4%4%4%3%6%3%2%3%5%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%17%30%28%25%47%53%59%32%37%52%10%30%37%17%37%63%
 
What if the only two candidates were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Tom Udall?
1827 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 2.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBernalilRest of
Wilson (R)35%39%32%30%34%35%40%33%37%44%21%72%11%29%67%27%9%41%32%
Udall (D)61%58%65%66%62%62%57%64%60%53%77%24%87%66%29%71%89%56%64%
Undecided3%3%4%3%3%3%3%3%3%4%2%4%2%5%4%2%2%3%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%50%50%17%30%28%25%47%53%59%32%37%52%10%30%37%17%37%63%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.