Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14397
Dramatic Shift in McConnell's KY Senate Re-Elect; Women, Voters Focused on Economy, Move to Democrat Lunsford: 42 days until votes are counted in the race for United States Senator from Kentucky, incumbent Republican Mitch McConnell's once double-digit lead is eroding, according to this SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WHAS-TV Louisville, WLEX-TV Lexington, and WCPO-TV Cincinnati. Today, it's McConnell 49%, Lunsford 46%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released six weeks ago, Lunsford is up 6 points, McConnell is down 3.

Interviews for this survey occurred at a time of economic turbulence. 6 in 10 voters tell SurveyUSA they are focused on the economy, ahead of all other issues. Among voters focused on the economy, McConnell went from a 6-point lead 6 weeks ago, to a 9-point deficit today, a 15-point swing to the Democrat. Lunsford, a Louisville businessman who ran in the Democratic primaries for Kentucky Governor in 2003 and 2007, also gained ground among women, where 6 weeks ago McConnell led by 11, but today the contest is tied. In Western KY, McConnell had led by 20 points, now leads by 11. In North Central KY, McConnell had led by 12, now leads by 2. In Eastern KY, McConnell had led by 26, now leads by 11. Among voters 50+, McConnell's lead has been cut by two-thirds. Among wealthier voters, McConnell's lead has been cut in half.

To put these numbers into context, it is critical to note that the identical survey that polled Kentucky voters on the US Senate race also asked about the Presidential contest. The same respondents rethinking McConnell are sticking with John McCain. McCain led by 18 points 6 weeks ago, leads by 19 points today. At a time when McConnell is struggling with women, McCain is gaining ground with women. Complete SurveyUSA results of McCain-Obama in Kentucky are here.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Kentucky adults 09/21/08 through 09/22/08. Of the adults, 835 identified themselves as registered voters. Of them, 672 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the general election on 11/04/08.
Kentucky voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) Republican Mitch McConnell? Or Democrat Bruce Lunsford?
672 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Mitch McConnell (R)49%51%47%47%47%51%51%47%51%51%28%****79%26%44%73%43%14%54%46%54%45%35%63%31%43%50%43%**39%39%87%******44%52%54%44%48%53%
Bruce Lunsford (D)46%45%47%46%46%45%47%46%46%45%65%****17%69%50%22%54%84%43%49%41%51%59%33%65%53%45%52%**58%54%12%******50%44%43%51%46%42%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%23%29%27%20%53%47%91%6%1%2%38%50%9%36%31%13%39%61%56%26%17%54%43%15%83%59%2%8%6%9%4%4%4%45%55%24%28%33%15%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.