Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18032
 
8 Months from SFO Mayoral Election, Front-Runner is Not Running, So Field Remains Wide Open: In a ranked-choice election for San Francisco mayor today, 03/16/2011, 5 months before the filing deadline and 8 months before before votes are counted, 5 declared candidates are clustered in the race to fill the open seat vacated by Mayor Gavin Newsom, who was elected Lieutenant Governor of California. Research conducted exclusively for CBS-5, KPIX-TV.

Interim Mayor Ed Lee, who so far says he is not running, gets the largest number of 1st-choice votes, 17%. Lee's support is disproportionately older, moderate, and Asian. Behind Lee, 5 declared candidates receive 8 to 12 percent of 1st-choice votes. There is no meaningful statistical difference among the following 1st-place votes; each of these candidates is effectively even:

* Michaela Alioto-Pier, former Board of Supervisors member, 12%.
* Leeland Yee, State Senator, 11%.
* David Chiu, Board of Supervisors President, 10%.
* Dennis Herrera, City Attorney, 9%.
* Bevan Dufty, former Supervisor, 8%
* 1/3 of likely voters choose some other another candidate or are undecided.

* Alioto-Pier's support and Herrera's support is disproportionately Hispanic.
* Alioto-Pier does better with lower-income voters. Herrera does better with upper-income voters.
* Leland Yee's support and Chiu's support is disproportionately Asian.
* Leland Yee does better with Conservatives and women. Chiu does better with men and college grads.
* Dufty's support is disproportionately white and middle-aged.

Should Ed Lee not run, where do his votes go?

* 24% of those who vote for Lee as 1st choice, vote for Chiu as 2nd choice.
* 19% of those who vote for Ed Lee as 1st choice, vote for Alioto-Pier as 2nd choice.
* 15% of those who vote for Ed Lee as 1st choice, vote for Herrera as 2nd choice.

 
'Cell-Phone-Only' Respondents Included in this Survey: Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 800 registered voters from the city of San Francisco 03/10/11 through 03/15/11. Cellphones, as always, were hand-dialed. Of the registered voters, 544 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/08/11 election for San Francisco Mayor. Voters were asked for 1st, 2nd and 3rd choices. 25% of the 800 interviews completed for this survey were hand-dialed calls to cell phones, with questions asked by live operators, who remained on the line throughout the call. Once filtering was applied to weed out those cell respondents not likely to vote, 17% of the likely voters included here were CPO (Cell Phone Only) respondents. 6% were CPA (Cell Phone Also) respondents (those who have both home phone and a cell phone but who were reached and interviewed on a cell phone). 77% of likely voters were interviewed on their home phone using recorded-voice. Candidate names were not read to respondents in the order they are shown here. Candidates were sorted and ranked on this report from highest to lowest 1st-place votes for ease of comprehension.
 
1In the San Francisco Mayor election, voters will rank their top three choices. If the election for San Francisco Mayor were today, who would be your first choice? Michaela Alioto-Pier? David Chiu? Bevan Dufty? Dennis Herrera? Ed Lee? Phil Ting? Leland Yee? Or another candidate?
544 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Race1st Choice2nd Choice3rd ChoiceParty AffiliationIdeology2007 VoteCollege GradIncomeType Of Interview
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Ed LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingEd LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingEd LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNewsomOther CaYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCPOCPALandline
Ed Lee17%15%19%12%15%19%22%14%20%15%20%9%22%100%0%0%0%0%0%**0%26%29%34%26%22%**0%32%34%12%17%31%38%16%18%13%12%23%13%19%15%20%11%13%15%21%6%4%20%
Alioto-Pier12%14%11%8%13%15%14%10%15%13%32%16%6%0%100%0%0%0%0%**13%0%11%16%24%29%**24%0%21%10%29%11%5%15%12%11%18%14%9%13%8%11%14%17%10%11%5%4%15%
Leland Yee11%8%13%6%9%14%16%8%15%8%9%10%16%0%0%100%0%0%0%**24%21%0%11%11%8%**21%12%0%25%17%14%11%17%11%7%18%11%10%12%7%10%14%12%15%9%3%5%13%
Chiu10%11%8%7%10%9%13%9%11%10%2%8%12%0%0%0%100%0%0%**29%12%18%0%13%15%**11%13%24%0%14%24%21%9%11%8%9%10%12%9%13%11%6%9%13%8%4%9%11%
Herrera9%10%7%8%8%10%10%8%10%10%0%19%6%0%0%0%0%100%0%**10%11%11%17%0%21%**24%13%7%12%0%15%19%7%8%15%9%8%10%8%9%8%8%4%8%11%6%7%10%
Dufty8%12%4%3%11%11%6%7%9%11%6%9%3%0%0%0%0%0%100%**4%12%20%9%17%0%**14%11%3%19%8%0%0%3%9%8%5%8%9%10%4%8%8%3%7%11%3%5%9%
Ting1%1%2%2%1%2%1%1%1%2%0%1%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%**1%1%0%7%1%1%**0%0%2%1%2%1%0%0%2%0%0%3%0%1%2%2%0%0%0%3%0%3%2%
Another Candidate9%10%8%7%13%9%6%10%8%7%8%17%10%0%0%0%0%0%0%**15%10%7%2%6%4%**6%8%3%10%11%5%6%14%7%11%14%9%8%7%19%10%8%16%7%7%6%6%10%
Undecided23%19%28%47%20%12%12%32%12%25%22%12%25%0%0%0%0%0%0%**5%6%4%5%1%0%**0%11%6%11%2%0%0%19%22%27%14%16%29%20%22%20%31%26%26%19%66%59%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%25%30%26%19%55%45%56%5%9%30%17%12%11%10%9%8%1%12%12%5%12%10%6%3%9%8%5%8%9%7%6%11%66%21%11%42%40%72%20%72%28%22%30%48%17%6%77%
 
2Who would be your second choice? Please vote for a different candidate than you did for your first choice.
540 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Race1st Choice2nd Choice3rd ChoiceParty AffiliationIdeology2007 VoteCollege GradIncomeType Of Interview
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Ed LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingEd LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingEd LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNewsomOther CaYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCPOCPALandline
Ed Lee12%13%11%6%12%15%16%9%16%11%5%11%16%0%14%27%35%13%7%**100%0%0%0%0%0%**0%22%21%20%22%12%28%15%13%9%16%13%12%12%12%14%7%16%14%10%4%6%14%
Alioto-Pier12%11%14%4%12%15%21%8%18%13%19%14%9%19%0%24%15%15%19%**0%100%0%0%0%0%**24%0%22%22%27%27%7%15%12%14%11%11%15%14%7%11%16%16%10%13%2%5%15%
Leland Yee5%5%6%1%6%8%7%3%8%4%7%4%8%9%5%0%10%7%14%**0%0%100%0%0%0%**6%12%0%9%1%5%13%7%6%3%4%7%4%6%4%4%10%6%5%6%1%7%6%
Chiu12%14%9%12%9%12%16%10%13%10%15%13%14%24%16%12%0%22%13%**0%0%0%100%0%0%**23%25%12%0%18%22%29%10%14%6%17%13%9%13%10%12%10%10%8%15%5%3%14%
Herrera10%10%10%9%11%9%11%10%10%12%18%19%2%15%20%10%13%0%21%**0%0%0%0%100%0%**19%12%12%19%0%26%13%3%10%13%5%11%10%10%14%10%11%6%12%10%8%2%11%
Dufty6%10%3%2%8%10%5%5%8%9%4%5%3%9%16%5%10%15%0%**0%0%0%0%0%100%**16%13%13%11%14%0%6%1%7%8%3%8%6%7%7%7%4%6%5%7%2%4%8%
Ting3%4%2%5%2%3%1%4%2%3%1%4%4%5%8%7%1%2%2%**0%0%0%0%0%0%**4%9%8%4%10%3%0%10%3%1%4%3%3%4%1%4%2%3%1%5%2%1%4%
Another Candidate12%12%12%10%14%11%12%13%11%10%12%12%17%8%16%4%8%15%12%**0%0%0%0%0%0%**4%7%11%7%8%5%4%16%11%11%22%10%11%10%20%11%10%8%17%10%5%2%14%
Undecided27%22%32%51%25%17%11%37%14%28%20%17%28%11%5%11%8%11%12%**0%0%0%0%0%0%**4%1%0%7%0%0%0%22%26%35%17%23%30%25%26%27%29%29%29%25%73%70%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%26%30%26%19%56%44%56%5%10%30%17%12%11%10%9%8%1%12%12%5%12%10%6%3%9%8%5%8%9%7%6%11%66%21%11%42%41%72%20%72%28%21%30%48%17%6%77%
 
3Who would be your third choice? Please vote for a different candidate than you did for your first two choices.
536 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Race1st Choice2nd Choice3rd ChoiceParty AffiliationIdeology2007 VoteCollege GradIncomeType Of Interview
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Ed LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingEd LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingEd LeeAlioto-PLeland YChiuHerreraDuftyTingRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalNewsomOther CaYesNo< $40K$40K - $> $80KCPOCPALandline
Ed Lee9%11%7%0%8%15%15%4%15%10%10%6%8%0%19%18%10%24%15%**0%17%10%17%17%22%**100%0%0%0%0%0%0%9%9%7%14%9%9%10%9%8%10%9%9%8%2%2%11%
Alioto-Pier8%8%9%7%7%10%9%7%10%9%9%11%5%15%0%9%10%12%11%**15%0%18%17%10%16%**0%100%0%0%0%0%0%5%10%6%13%8%7%9%5%8%7%5%5%11%1%7%10%
Leland Yee5%5%6%5%6%5%6%5%5%5%13%3%5%10%9%0%13%4%2%**9%9%0%5%6%10%**0%0%100%0%0%0%0%9%5%4%7%6%4%6%4%5%5%3%7%5%1%6%6%
Chiu8%9%8%5%9%9%11%7%10%7%13%7%11%6%7%20%0%12%20%**14%15%15%0%16%15%**0%0%0%100%0%0%0%5%9%7%1%12%8%11%2%9%7%13%10%7%2%5%10%
Herrera9%10%8%9%6%12%8%7%11%11%7%18%3%9%22%14%12%0%9%**16%19%2%13%0%18%**0%0%0%0%100%0%0%14%8%8%10%8%10%9%11%8%10%11%6%9%3%0%11%
Dufty7%7%7%4%9%7%7%7%7%6%2%12%8%13%7%9%17%12%0%**7%16%7%13%18%0%**0%0%0%0%0%100%0%6%7%10%8%8%6%6%11%9%4%8%5%8%4%1%8%
Ting6%7%5%2%6%7%10%4%8%5%3%2%11%14%3%6%13%13%0%**14%4%15%15%8%5%**0%0%0%0%0%0%100%4%7%5%4%6%7%5%10%6%8%7%7%6%2%0%8%
Another Candidate17%19%16%17%18%16%19%17%17%14%18%18%22%22%23%14%12%14%20%**15%14%16%17%18%12%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%24%17%15%29%17%14%16%21%17%17%10%19%19%11%2%20%
Undecided30%25%35%51%32%19%15%41%17%33%25%23%27%11%10%9%12%10%23%**10%6%15%3%7%2%**0%0%0%0%0%0%0%23%29%37%16%25%35%29%27%30%31%34%30%28%74%78%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%26%30%26%19%55%45%56%5%10%29%17%12%11%10%9%8%1%12%12%5%12%10%7%3%9%8%5%8%9%7%6%11%65%21%11%42%41%72%20%72%28%22%30%48%18%6%77%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.