| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14083 |
| Democrat Boswell Breaks from Gate Even in Once 'Safe' KY2 GOP House District: In an election for US House of Representatives in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District today, 06/30/08, to fill the seat of retiring incumbent Republican Ron Lewis, Democrat David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie begin July effectively even, according to this exclusive WHAS-TV new poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Today, it's Boswell 47%, Guthrie 44%, within the survey's 4.3 percentage point margin of sampling error. Both candidates are state Senators. Among women, Boswell leads by 6 points; among men, the two candidates tie. Conservatives back Guthrie 3:1; moderates back Boswell 2:1. Incumbent Lewis, first elected to the House in 1994, is not seeking an eighth term. Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District, rated "Solid R" by the Cook Political Report, has a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+13. Lewis won with 55% of the vote in 2006 and with 68% of the vote in 2004. Before Lewis, Democrat William Natcher held the seat for 40 years. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District 06/27/08 through 06/29/08; of the adults, 753 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 545 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the November general election. |
 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Brett Guthrie? Or, Democrat David Boswell? |
| 545 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Change Your Mind | |||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Could Ch | Mind Mad | |
| Brett Guthrie (R) | 44% | 47% | 42% | 41% | 48% | 40% | 49% | 45% | 43% | 81% | 16% | ** | 70% | 29% | 31% | 48% | 36% | 41% | 54% | 28% | 40% | 46% |
| David Boswell (D) | 47% | 47% | 48% | 51% | 45% | 51% | 39% | 48% | 47% | 11% | 76% | ** | 23% | 62% | 68% | 43% | 54% | 53% | 38% | 65% | 41% | 50% |
| Undecided | 9% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 7% | 9% | 12% | 7% | 10% | 8% | 8% | ** | 7% | 8% | 1% | 8% | 10% | 6% | 8% | 7% | 19% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 20% | 33% | 30% | 17% | 53% | 47% | 41% | 54% | 4% | 39% | 35% | 9% | 61% | 24% | 15% | 64% | 34% | 30% | 69% |