| Results of SurveyUSA News Poll #19167 |
| 1 in 4 San Diego County Voters Have Changed Party Affiliation; Democrat to GOP is Most Common Switch: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from San Diego County, exclusively for KGTV-TV, on the topic of party affiliation changes. Highlights:
* Currently, 36% of registered voters say they are registered as Republicans, 36% as Democrats; 19% say they are registered with no party preference; 7% are members of third parties. * 71% of registered voters say they have always been registered with their current affiliation; 26% have changed. * Those who are currently members of third parties are twice as likely as those who are Republicans, Democrats, or registered with no party preference to have switched from another party. * 73% of Republicans used to be Democrats; 41% of Democrats say they used to be Republicans. 54% of those with no party preference today are former Republicans; 39% of those with no preference are former Democrats. * Why change parties? Pluralities of both former Republicans and former Democrats say they switched because they were unhappy with the leadership of their party. In second place, 27% of former Democrats say their political views changed; 21% of former Republicans say their party changed. * Of those who have not switched parties, 18% say they have considered doing so. Full results follow. |
| 1 | Are you registered to vote as a Republican? A Democrat? A member of a third party? Or are you registered with no party preference, formerly known as a "decline to state" voter? |
| 700 Registered Voters | All | Current Party | Former Party | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.8% | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Republican | 36% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 65% | 38% | 26% | 38% | 34% | 30% | 35% | 39% | 48% | 32% | 43% | 42% | 26% | 29% | 25% | 65% | 24% | 8% |
| Democrat | 36% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 44% | 0% | 57% | 72% | 32% | 40% | 30% | 35% | 44% | 37% | 32% | 41% | 33% | 57% | 47% | 20% | 12% | 38% | 73% |
| Third Party | 7% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 24% | 19% | 0% | 2% | 7% | 7% | 9% | 6% | 6% | 6% | 8% | 6% | 10% | 11% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 9% | 7% |
| Decline-to-state | 19% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 32% | 15% | 4% | 0% | 21% | 17% | 28% | 22% | 9% | 9% | 26% | 9% | 13% | 6% | 17% | 54% | 19% | 24% | 11% |
| Not Sure | 2% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 0% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 5% | 1% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 36% | 36% | 7% | 19% | 29% | 42% | 17% | 12% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 24% | 24% | 17% | 59% | 41% | 60% | 5% | 21% | 13% | 39% | 33% | 22% |
| 2 | Have you always been registered to vote this way? Or did you change your party affiliation at some point in the past? |
| 687 Registered Voters | All | Current Party | Former Party | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5% | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Always | 71% | 74% | 75% | 38% | 72% | - | - | - | - | 68% | 75% | 77% | 67% | 68% | 70% | 73% | 69% | 68% | 60% | 84% | 73% | 78% | 66% | 69% |
| Changed | 26% | 26% | 23% | 52% | 21% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 28% | 23% | 21% | 27% | 31% | 27% | 23% | 29% | 29% | 39% | 14% | 23% | 21% | 32% | 26% |
| Not Sure | 3% | 1% | 2% | 10% | 8% | - | - | - | - | 4% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 3% | 4% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters | 100% | 37% | 36% | 7% | 19% | 29% | 42% | 17% | 12% | 51% | 49% | 36% | 24% | 24% | 17% | 59% | 41% | 60% | 5% | 21% | 13% | 40% | 32% | 22% |
| 3 | How did you used to be registered, before you changed? |
| 167 Who Changed Party Affiliation | All | Current Party | Former Party | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 7.7% | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Republican | 29% | 0% | 41% | 45% | 54% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 32% | 25% | 19% | 44% | 27% | 26% | 30% | 27% | 30% | 3% | 21% | 43% | 25% | 33% | 20% |
| Democrat | 42% | 73% | 0% | 52% | 39% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 38% | 46% | 47% | 20% | 49% | 49% | 35% | 49% | 41% | 55% | 66% | 14% | 49% | 44% | 30% |
| Third Party | 17% | 18% | 32% | 0% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 0% | 19% | 15% | 20% | 25% | 12% | 13% | 22% | 12% | 16% | 10% | 13% | 33% | 19% | 8% | 35% |
| Decline-to-state | 12% | 8% | 27% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 11% | 13% | 14% | 11% | 11% | 9% | 13% | 11% | 13% | 32% | 0% | 7% | 7% | 15% | 15% |
| Not Sure | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Changed Party Affiliation | 100% | 37% | 31% | 15% | 17% | 29% | 42% | 17% | 12% | 55% | 45% | 29% | 24% | 29% | 18% | 53% | 47% | 70% | 6% | 12% | 12% | 31% | 40% | 21% |
| 4 | What is the main reason why you changed your party affiliation? Because your political views changed? Because the party changed? Because you were unhappy with the leadership of the party? To vote in a primary? To make a point or send a message? Or for some other reason? |
| 177 Who Changed Party Affiliation | All | Current Party | Former Party | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 7.5% | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Views Changed | 22% | 23% | 21% | 26% | 16% | 19% | 27% | 12% | 35% | 17% | 28% | 22% | 19% | 26% | 20% | 21% | 24% | 24% | 25% | 9% | 18% | 18% | 22% | 35% |
| Party Changed | 14% | 10% | 19% | 7% | 19% | 21% | 13% | 9% | 5% | 12% | 17% | 0% | 28% | 12% | 20% | 13% | 15% | 16% | 8% | 13% | 10% | 16% | 17% | 9% |
| Unhappy With Leadership | 31% | 40% | 21% | 37% | 26% | 41% | 36% | 16% | 9% | 37% | 24% | 43% | 23% | 26% | 33% | 34% | 29% | 27% | 58% | 53% | 18% | 39% | 33% | 11% |
| To Vote | 10% | 14% | 11% | 0% | 8% | 6% | 3% | 25% | 26% | 12% | 8% | 4% | 20% | 9% | 8% | 12% | 9% | 12% | 0% | 0% | 14% | 12% | 7% | 9% |
| Make a Point | 9% | 3% | 15% | 8% | 9% | 4% | 4% | 23% | 13% | 9% | 7% | 15% | 3% | 6% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 5% | 7% | 0% | 37% | 3% | 6% | 22% |
| Other | 14% | 10% | 12% | 21% | 21% | 9% | 16% | 15% | 11% | 12% | 16% | 16% | 7% | 21% | 9% | 12% | 17% | 15% | 2% | 25% | 3% | 10% | 15% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Changed Party Affiliation | 100% | 37% | 33% | 15% | 16% | 29% | 42% | 17% | 12% | 56% | 44% | 29% | 24% | 29% | 18% | 53% | 47% | 69% | 8% | 11% | 12% | 31% | 40% | 22% |
| 5 | Have you ever considered switching your party affiliation? |
| 510 Registered Voters Who Have Not Switched | All | Current Party | Former Party | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.8% | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Yes | 18% | 24% | 17% | ** | 10% | - | - | - | - | 22% | 15% | 14% | 20% | 23% | 20% | 16% | 22% | 22% | ** | 16% | 6% | 17% | 23% | 12% |
| No | 76% | 73% | 78% | ** | 82% | - | - | - | - | 74% | 79% | 85% | 67% | 74% | 73% | 78% | 73% | 75% | ** | 74% | 89% | 79% | 71% | 84% |
| Not Sure | 5% | 4% | 4% | ** | 9% | - | - | - | - | 4% | 7% | 1% | 13% | 3% | 7% | 6% | 5% | 4% | ** | 10% | 5% | 3% | 7% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Registered Voters Who Have Not Switched | 100% | 37% | 38% | 5% | 21% | 50% | 50% | 38% | 23% | 22% | 16% | 61% | 39% | 58% | 4% | 24% | 14% | 43% | 30% | 22% | ||||
| 6 | What would you be most likely to change to? |
| 94 Who Considered Switching | All | Current Party | Former Party | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Ideology | ||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 10.3% | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Republic | Democrat | Third Pa | Decline- | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | |
| Republican | 21% | 4% | 25% | 67% | 56% | - | - | - | - | 22% | 19% | 34% | 13% | 18% | 16% | 24% | 17% | 22% | 26% | 18% | ** | 29% | 25% | 3% |
| Democrat | 15% | 16% | 10% | 0% | 37% | - | - | - | - | 13% | 18% | 25% | 12% | 8% | 12% | 19% | 10% | 11% | 45% | 22% | ** | 3% | 10% | 33% |
| Third Party | 30% | 39% | 32% | 0% | 3% | - | - | - | - | 36% | 21% | 14% | 41% | 32% | 35% | 27% | 34% | 35% | 9% | 24% | ** | 38% | 29% | 19% |
| Decline-to-state | 25% | 31% | 29% | 0% | 4% | - | - | - | - | 25% | 26% | 14% | 28% | 28% | 34% | 21% | 31% | 26% | 0% | 36% | ** | 26% | 35% | 7% |
| Not Sure | 9% | 10% | 4% | 33% | 0% | - | - | - | - | 4% | 15% | 12% | 5% | 13% | 2% | 9% | 8% | 6% | 20% | 0% | ** | 4% | 1% | 37% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Who Considered Switching | 100% | 48% | 35% | 7% | 11% | 60% | 40% | 28% | 26% | 28% | 18% | 54% | 46% | 68% | 6% | 22% | 5% | 40% | 36% | 15% | ||||