Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18818
 
FL GOP Primary: Gingrich 22 Points Atop Romney, All other Candidates Irrelevant:

8 weeks to the Florida GOP Primary, Newt Gingrich resoundingly defeats Mitt Romney, with no other candidates worth discussing, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 500 likely Republican primary voters conducted for WFLA-TV in Tampa.

Gingrich gets 45%, Romney 23%, no one else is above 6%.

* Among those who describe themselves as moderate, Romney leads 3:2.
* Among those who tell SurveyUSA they are "very conservative," Gingrich leads 3:1.
* Among Evangelicals, Gingrich leads 5:2.
* Among members of the Tea Party, Gingrich leads 5:2.
* Among pro-life voters, Gingrich leads 5:2.
* Gingrich leads by 20 or more points in every region of the state except Southeast Florida, where Romney runs 3 points ahead of Gingrich.
* Gingrich's Favorability among likely Florida primary voters is now an extraordinary Plus 54.
* Romney's Favorability among likely Florida primary voters is now Plus 30.
* By contrast, and as a point of differentiation, Ron Paul's favorability is Minus 11, Rick Perry's favorability is Minus 9.

Anticipating that by the time the Florida primary is held, after Iowa, after New Hampshire, and after South Carolina, that some 2nd-tier candidates may have dropped out of the race, SurveyUSA asked likely primary voters who they would vote for if the only two remaining candidates, at the time of the Florida primary, were Gingrich and Romney.

In a two-man face-off, Gingrich defeats Romney 57% to 30%.

Of importance, SurveyUSA asked voters after that head-to-head match-up, whether they cast their ballot enthusiastically, or with reservations. The theory being tested is that Romney supporters have less enthusiasm for their candidate than do Gingrich supporters. This is not borne out in the data.

* 62% of Gingrich supporters casat their vote enthusiastically; 35% cast their vote with reservations.
* 63% of Romney supporters cast their vote enthusiastically, 33% cast their vote with reservations.

Cellphone and home phone respondents included in this research. Using voter list sample from Aristotle, SurveyUSA interviewed 500 registered Florida Republicans who have voted in past primary elections and who identified themselves as being certain to vote in this primary. Research conducted 12/05/11 and 12/06/11, days after Herman Cain withdrew from the race. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents who use a landline (home) telephone (73% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home telephone (27% of likely voters) were contacted by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, secured the cooperation of the respondent, asked the questions, recorded the answers, and remained on the phone until the completion of the interview. In these results, cellphone and home phone respondents vote similarly.

 
If the Florida Republican Primary for President of the United States were today, and you were filling out your Republican primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Mitt Romney? Newt Gingrich? Michele Bachmann? Ron Paul? Rick Perry? Rick Santorum? Jon Huntsman? Or one of the other Republican candidates?
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Romney23%21%25%21%20%18%28%20%24%16%26%16%26%17%23%34%19%21%26%20%27%21%27%22%19%30%15%21%25%21%28%
Gingrich45%51%38%26%38%47%49%34%48%39%48%51%44%55%48%28%51%48%43%53%40%50%40%39%56%38%52%52%48%49%25%
Bachmann6%6%5%3%5%9%3%5%6%5%6%13%4%8%5%0%7%3%7%4%6%6%5%7%6%4%2%3%3%8%12%
Paul4%5%4%2%11%4%2%8%3%6%3%2%5%1%6%5%1%3%5%4%4%4%4%4%3%5%8%5%5%4%0%
Perry5%3%7%3%12%3%4%9%4%4%4%4%4%7%4%1%9%0%5%5%4%5%3%7%2%5%3%4%4%3%12%
Santorum2%1%2%5%0%4%1%2%2%1%2%5%1%3%1%1%3%2%2%3%1%3%1%1%2%3%1%2%3%2%0%
Huntsman3%4%3%2%0%5%4%1%4%1%4%1%4%1%2%9%4%2%4%0%6%1%7%3%3%4%0%1%1%5%9%
Other3%2%3%12%0%2%3%4%2%4%2%4%2%1%2%6%1%5%1%2%3%2%3%3%3%2%5%3%2%2%3%
Undecided9%7%12%25%14%8%6%17%7%24%4%5%11%7%8%17%4%15%8%9%8%8%9%13%7%10%15%11%9%6%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%16%33%43%24%76%27%73%17%81%33%44%21%13%29%58%46%50%59%36%23%41%35%13%14%33%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Newt Gingrich ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable65%71%59%42%68%69%65%60%67%61%66%74%62%75%65%49%65%60%66%72%58%67%61%54%74%60%63%71%64%62%66%
Unfavorable11%12%11%12%5%12%14%8%13%5%14%6%13%7%7%24%10%12%12%7%17%8%19%14%9%13%12%7%12%13%12%
Neutral21%17%26%32%26%19%19%28%19%29%19%16%22%17%24%25%22%25%20%19%22%23%18%29%15%24%20%17%22%24%22%
Unfamiliar2%1%4%14%0%1%2%4%2%4%2%4%2%1%3%3%3%4%2%2%2%2%2%4%2%3%5%5%2%2%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%16%33%43%24%76%27%73%17%81%33%44%21%13%29%58%46%50%59%36%23%41%35%13%14%33%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Ron Paul ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable22%26%19%33%32%21%18%32%19%27%20%24%21%17%26%20%19%17%24%22%22%20%24%22%24%20%25%19%27%18%21%
Unfavorable33%34%33%16%31%33%37%26%35%22%38%40%32%39%34%27%31%39%32%36%33%35%29%26%35%37%30%35%37%37%24%
Neutral33%33%33%26%31%38%31%29%34%40%30%28%34%35%29%39%32%30%35%28%35%34%31%33%31%34%32%34%27%28%48%
Unfamiliar12%8%15%25%6%8%14%12%11%11%12%8%13%10%12%15%19%14%9%14%10%11%15%19%10%9%13%13%10%16%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%16%33%43%24%76%27%73%17%81%33%44%21%13%29%58%46%50%59%36%23%41%35%13%14%33%21%19%
 
 
4Is your opinion of Rick Perry ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable24%21%27%13%34%24%23%27%23%25%23%34%22%37%20%12%26%16%27%27%22%28%19%22%21%26%23%28%23%19%30%
Unfavorable33%38%28%37%29%34%33%32%34%26%37%23%36%23%33%47%25%32%36%25%41%29%41%26%35%36%23%29%35%42%29%
Neutral34%35%32%16%34%35%35%28%35%36%33%38%32%38%31%34%27%41%32%38%30%35%30%36%36%32%37%34%35%29%34%
Unfamiliar9%5%13%34%3%7%9%13%8%13%8%5%11%2%16%6%22%11%5%10%8%9%10%16%8%6%16%9%7%10%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%16%33%43%24%76%27%73%17%81%33%44%21%13%29%58%46%50%59%36%23%41%35%13%14%33%21%19%
 
 
Is your opinion of Mitt Romney ...
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Favorable51%50%52%31%53%52%53%46%52%42%54%48%52%47%53%49%45%44%55%44%57%48%57%40%46%63%43%45%51%46%66%
Unfavorable21%25%18%26%24%24%18%25%20%22%21%23%21%27%20%18%30%23%19%27%17%24%17%25%24%15%28%26%22%26%9%
Neutral26%23%28%32%23%23%28%26%26%33%23%29%25%26%24%31%19%31%25%26%24%25%24%31%28%19%21%28%26%27%25%
Unfamiliar2%2%2%11%0%2%2%4%2%3%2%0%3%1%3%2%5%3%1%3%2%3%2%5%1%2%8%2%2%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%16%33%43%24%76%27%73%17%81%33%44%21%13%29%58%46%50%59%36%23%41%35%13%14%33%21%19%
 
 
6By the time the Florida Primary is held, if the only two Republican candidates left on the ballot are Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, which ONE would you vote for?
500 Likely Republican Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Gingrich57%60%54%43%62%60%56%56%57%58%56%66%54%71%59%32%70%55%54%68%48%62%50%52%64%52%67%58%61%58%43%
Romney30%27%32%38%29%26%31%32%29%25%31%24%31%23%25%46%28%26%32%22%37%28%34%31%23%36%23%29%30%30%33%
Undecided13%12%14%19%8%14%13%12%14%16%13%10%14%6%15%23%2%19%14%10%15%11%16%17%13%12%10%13%9%13%24%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Republican Primary Voters100%51%49%8%16%33%43%24%76%27%73%17%81%33%44%21%13%29%58%46%50%59%36%23%41%35%13%14%33%21%19%
 
 
7Do you cast this vote for Newt Gingrich with enthusiasm? Or with reservations?
285 Who Vote GingrichAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 5.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Enthusiasm62%65%59%51%60%60%66%58%64%55%64%62%62%64%61%53%53%75%57%65%58%66%52%59%66%56%73%68%57%68%50%
Reservations35%32%38%49%31%38%32%35%35%40%33%36%35%34%35%42%41%24%39%31%40%31%45%40%31%40%25%25%40%29%50%
Not Sure3%3%3%0%9%2%2%7%2%5%2%2%3%3%3%5%6%1%4%4%2%3%3%1%3%4%2%7%4%3%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Vote Gingrich100%54%46%6%18%34%42%24%76%28%72%20%77%41%46%12%17%28%55%56%43%64%32%21%47%32%15%14%35%21%15%
 
 
8Do you cast this vote for Mitt Romney with enthusiasm? Or with reservations?
148 Who Vote RomneyAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanTea Party MemberIdeologyEducationEvangelicalAbortionIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 7.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineYesNoVery ConConservaModerateHigh SchSome ColCollege YesNoPro-lifePro-choi< $40K$40K - $> $80KNorth WeNorth EaCentralSouth WeSouth Ea
Enthusiasm63%60%65%24%81%56%70%59%65%49%68%49%66%57%70%57%56%57%67%62%61%63%60%56%63%66%43%78%55%55%83%
Reservations33%33%32%67%19%37%27%38%31%45%28%41%31%31%28%41%40%41%28%34%34%30%37%35%32%32%44%22%42%42%10%
Not Sure4%6%3%9%0%7%3%3%5%6%4%10%2%11%2%2%4%2%5%3%5%6%2%8%5%2%13%0%3%2%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Who Vote Romney100%47%53%10%16%29%45%26%74%23%77%14%85%25%37%32%12%25%62%34%62%56%42%24%32%43%10%14%33%22%22%