Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13874
In U.S. Senate Primary in Oregon, Merkley Continues to Build Support, Remains Tied With Novick: Eight days until votes are counted in the Democratic Primary for US Senate in Oregon, state House Speaker Jeff Merkley and attorney Steve Novick remain effectively tied, though today Merkley has the nominal advantage, 31% to 27%. Realtor and activist Candy Neville today gets 11% of the vote; three other candidates each get 2%. 24% of voters remain undecided or say they will vote for some other unnamed candidate. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA tracking poll, conducted for KATU-TV Portland, released eleven days ago, Merkley is up 3 points and Novick is down 3 points. Then, it was Novick 30%, Merkley 28%. Both the 05/01/08 results and the 05/12/08 results are within the survey's 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error. Both sets of results should be characterized as effectively tied. That said, momentum is with Merkley among a number of key groups: Among men, Novick had led by 10, today trails by 2. Among voters age 18 to 49, Novick had led by 5, today trails by 2. Among voters 50+, Novick and Merkley had tied; today, Merkley leads by 7. Merkley and Novick are effectively even in the greater Portland area. Merkley leads by 13 in the rest of the state. Among the 43% of voters who have already mailed their ballot, Merkley leads by 6; among those who are likely to return a ballot, Merkley leads by 3.
Filtering: 1,700 state of Oregon adults were interviewed 05/09/08 through 05/11/08. Of them, 1,554 were registered to vote. Of them, 615 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already mailed their ballot or to be likely to return a ballot in the 05/20/08 Democratic Primary. The winner of the closed Democratic primary will face incumbent Republican Gordon Smith in November. All voting is by U.S. mail. Ballots may be returned until 8 pm on 05/20/08.
If you were filling out your ballot today for the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Oregon, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Pavel Goberman? David Loera? Jeff Merkley? Candy Neville? Steve Novick? Roger Obrist? Or some other Democrat?
615 Likely And Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceAlready Voted?IdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindTop Issue For Next PresidentRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteHispanicAsianActual VLikely VConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind MadEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigratPortlandRest of
Other / Undecided24%23%25%33%25%19%20%28%19%29%22%19%24%29%**13%32%26%26%20%24%20%25%28%22%32%32%22%22%18%22%********23%25%
Composition of Likely And Actual Voters100%50%50%19%31%28%22%50%50%43%13%44%88%6%5%43%57%10%37%40%27%23%50%20%78%19%78%32%8%17%25%3%4%3%4%68%32%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.