Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14662
Minnesota Congresswoman Michele Bachmann in the Spotlight -- Can She Hang On After Hardball Interview? In an election for United States House of Representative from Minnesota's 6th Congressional District today, 10/23/08, 12 days until votes are counted, DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg has the nominal lead in an effectively tied race with Republican incumbent Michele Bachmann, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSTP-TV in Minneapolis. Today, it's Tinklenberg 47%, Bachmann 44%, Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson 6%. Results are within the survey's 4.0 percentage point margin of sampling error.

The contest is volatile; these numbers freeze-frame a pendulum that may not have yet have swung its full arc. All interviews were conducted after Bachmann made comments on MNSBC that drew national attention. During the field period for this survey, the National Republican Congressional Committee suspended its advertising in the District and the Democratic candidate raised $1 million. The full impact of those events would not yet be reflected in these poll results. Bachmann was elected to her first term in 2006 with 50% of the vote and an 8 point margin of victory, in a race SurveyUSA polled for KSTP-TV. The district, which George W. Bush carried with 57% of the vote in 2004, had been rated "likely Republican" by the Cook Political Report; Cook now ranks it as a toss-up. Here is what changed the race:

Filtering: 700 registered voters from Minnesota's 6th District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/21/08 and 10/22/08, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 621 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote on or before the November 4 general election.
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives, were today, would you vote for ... (names rotated) Republican Michele Bachmann? DFL candidate Elwyn Tinklenberg? Or Independence Party candidate Bob Anderson?
621 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Michele Bachmann (R)44%48%41%44%49%42%38%47%41%44%******79%8%35%80%29%10%50%40%35%67%21%48%37%42%45%
Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL)47%42%53%46%44%49%56%45%51%48%******15%87%51%13%63%83%43%50%56%26%72%44%55%47%48%
Bob Anderson (IP)6%8%5%7%5%9%3%6%7%6%******4%3%12%5%6%5%5%7%8%5%6%7%5%9%5%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%19%37%30%14%56%44%94%3%1%2%40%32%25%35%46%14%53%25%22%50%47%60%38%29%71%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.