Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14732
 
Maybe, At the Wire, A Slight Tightening in the New Mexico President and US Senate Contests: 72 hours till votes are counted in New Mexico, Democrat Barack Obama defeats Republican John McCain, to capture the state's 5 electoral votes, and Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce to capture the US Senate seat vacated by Republican Peter Domenici, according to SurveyUSA's final pre-election tracking poll conducted for KOB-TV. In four SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Obama has received 52%, McCain has received 44% or 45%. Of New Mexicans who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted, Obama leads big. Among those who have not yet voted, but who promise to, Obama leads small. The relative size of those two groups will determine Obama's winning margin. In the contest for United States Senate, Democrat Tom Udall defeats Republican Steve Pearce 56% to 42%, the closest Pearce has been to Udall in 4 tracking polls, and 4 points tighter than the race was mid-October. In Bernalillo County, Udall's once 24-point advance is now 13, as Pearce breaks 40% for the first time. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 New Mexico adults 10/29/08 through 10/31/08. Of them, 721 were registered to vote; of them, 664 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote on or before Election Day.
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
664 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationAlready Voted?IdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicNative AAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KBernalilRest of
McCain (R)45%49%42%46%47%45%42%47%44%47%43%45%55%**31%****84%18%44%39%54%78%34%15%46%45%52%40%38%68%28%37%**25%25%93%**34%75%37%51%45%46%
Obama (D)52%48%55%51%49%51%55%50%53%50%53%53%42%**66%****14%79%49%58%41%19%63%83%52%51%44%58%58%30%69%60%**73%72%4%**64%17%59%47%53%51%
Other2%1%2%1%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%2%2%**1%****1%1%4%1%2%1%2%0%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%1%**1%1%1%**2%6%2%1%1%2%
Undecided2%2%1%1%2%1%2%2%1%2%3%1%1%**2%****0%2%3%1%3%2%1%2%1%2%2%1%1%2%1%2%**1%2%2%**0%1%3%1%1%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%18%30%29%23%48%52%42%11%47%59%1%31%5%4%36%51%13%60%40%35%43%16%52%48%46%27%26%43%53%50%2%8%7%13%3%7%6%41%59%41%59%
 
 
New Mexico will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Steve Pearce? Or Democrat Tom Udall?
664 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationAlready Voted?IdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionTop Issue For Next PresidentIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicNative AAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiEconomyEnvironmHealth CIraqTerrorisSocial SEducatioImmigrat< $50K> $50KBernalilRest of
Steve Pearce (R)42%45%39%47%40%43%40%42%42%42%41%42%51%**28%****81%15%43%38%49%72%33%12%43%42%49%34%38%64%25%34%**22%26%83%**38%74%33%48%42%42%
Tom Udall (D)56%53%59%51%58%55%58%55%57%55%57%56%47%**69%****18%83%54%61%48%26%66%86%57%55%50%64%58%35%73%64%**78%71%14%**62%23%64%51%55%56%
Undecided2%2%2%3%2%2%2%3%2%3%3%2%2%**3%****1%2%4%1%3%2%1%2%1%3%1%1%5%1%2%2%**1%2%3%**0%3%3%2%3%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%18%30%29%23%48%52%42%11%47%59%1%31%5%4%36%51%13%60%40%35%43%16%52%48%46%27%26%43%53%50%2%8%7%13%3%7%6%41%59%41%59%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.