Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17610
 
Will Oregon Cell-Phone-Only Homes Help Democrat Kitzhaber Leapfrog Republican Dudley?: In an election for Oregon governor today, 10/29/10, 4 days until votes are counted, former Democratic Governor John Kitzhaber edges Republican Chris Dudley, according to SurveyUSA polling for KATU-TV in Portland.

Among the subset of voters interviewed on their home telephones, Kitzhaber is nominally ahead, by 4 points. Among voters who do not have a home phone, interviewed on their cellphones, Kitzhaber leads by 15 points. When the groups are proportionally blended, it's Kitzhaber 48%, Dudley 41%. Kitzhaber, who served as Governor from 1995 to 2003, has gained ground among men, where in 3 SurveyUSA polls since mid-September, Dudley had led by 19, by 11, and now by 3 points. Oregon conducts elections entirely by mail. Dudley, a former Portland Trailblazer, leads 5:3 among those voters who rarely vote in midterm elections but who tell SurveyUSA they are uniquely motivated to vote this year. In some states in 2010, those uniquely motivated voters are enough to elect the Republican. But not here: Kitzhaber leads 5:4 among those who vote more frequently. Those more enthusiastic about voting this year than in prior years vote 5:3 Republican. Those enthusiastic this year vote 2:1 Democrat. Among the 60% of voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already filled out their ballot, Kitzhaber leads by 11 points. Among those who say they are certain to return a ballot, the race is effectively even. Dudley would need to outperform Kitzhaber substantially on the not-yet returned ballots to overtake.

In the race for United States Senator from Oregon, incumbent Democrat Ron Wyden is elected to a 3rd full term, defeating Republican Jim Huffman by 25 points, essentially unchanged from 2 weeks ago. Wyden is above 50% among men and women, young and old, in Greater Portland and beyond. Republicans are 4 times as likely to cross over and vote for Wyden as Democrats are to cross over and vote for Huffman.

Two ballot measures before Oregon voters this fall both appear likely to fail. Measure 74, which would establish a medical marijuana supply system, has the potential to become law, with 35% today voting yes, 45% no, and 19% not yet certain how they would vote. But: support for the measure is below 50% among most demographic groups, drawing a majority of votes only among liberals and those with unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement, while opposition is strong among several key demographic groups, including voters 65+, where the measure fails 2:1.

Measure 75, which would allow a private, non-tribal casino in Multnomah County, is today opposed by more than 2:1 among those voters who are certain of their vote. Opposition is at or above 50% statewide.

 
Filtering: Using both RDD landline and cellphone sample from Survey Sampling, SurveyUSA interviewed 800 Oregon adults 10/23/10 through 10/28/10. Cellphones were hand-dialed. Of the adults, 673 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 580 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. Oregon conducts its elections entirely by mail; ballots were mailed to voters 10/15/10. "CPO" = Cell Phone Only, respondents who do not have a home phone and who make and receive phone calls with a cell phone. "Both" = respondents who have both a cell phone and a home phone but for this survey were interviewed on their cell phone by a live operator who dialed the call by hand. "Home Phone" = respondents who were interviewed on their home phone with the recorded-voice of a professional announcer. 26% of the likely voters interviewed for this survey were contacted and interviewed entirely by live operator, 74% of likely voters were contacted and interviewed using recorded voice. CPO respondents account for 13% of likely voters. CPO voters are the least predictable to pollsters. If CPO voters turn-out in smaller numbers than here shown, Democrats will under-perform these numbers, Republicans will out-perform these numbers. Other pollsters show the gubernatorial contest closer than SurveyUSA; some show the Republican ahead. None, to SurveyUSA's knowledge, have included cell phones in their sample.
 
If you were filling out your ballot in for Oregon Governor today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Chris Dudley? Democrat John Kitzhaber? Constitution Party candidate Greg Kord? Or Libertarian Wes Wagner?
580 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+Already Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%CPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Dudley (R)41%28%30%46%47%36%40%39%43%43%39%43%42%41%83%12%43%78%34%7%86%8%58%31%50%41%41%61%27%37%41%41%61%48%31%70%26%49%30%41%40%42%40%
Kitzhaber (D)48%43%42%50%44%51%44%48%50%47%47%49%51%43%9%82%36%11%56%86%5%86%35%41%32%50%49%36%62%59%51%45%36%47%64%18%66%40%60%46%50%49%46%
Kord (C)1%0%0%1%1%1%1%1%0%3%1%1%1%1%1%1%3%2%1%1%1%1%1%2%3%1%1%1%3%1%1%2%2%0%2%1%1%1%1%2%1%1%2%
Wagner (L)1%2%2%1%1%2%1%2%1%2%1%1%2%1%0%1%4%0%1%3%2%1%1%2%5%2%1%1%4%1%1%2%1%2%1%1%2%1%2%2%1%1%2%
Undecided8%28%26%2%6%10%14%10%6%5%12%6%5%14%7%3%15%8%8%4%6%4%5%25%11%6%9%0%4%2%6%10%1%3%2%9%5%9%7%9%8%7%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%13%14%74%48%52%16%29%30%25%45%55%60%40%31%45%21%32%37%23%28%39%15%17%8%43%46%41%13%45%49%51%37%21%41%34%60%50%46%43%57%64%36%
 
 
Oregon voters will also elect a United States Senator. If you were filling out your ballot in for United States Senator today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Jim Huffman? Democrat Ron Wyden? Working Families Party candidate Bruce Cronk? Libertarian Marc Delphine? Or Progressive Party candidate Rick Staggenborg?
580 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+Already Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%CPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Huffman (R)32%18%18%37%37%27%31%32%32%33%31%32%33%30%68%6%36%65%23%4%75%3%38%20%38%32%32%55%16%26%33%31%51%34%27%60%17%40%22%32%32%32%32%
Wyden (D)57%50%51%59%53%60%46%54%61%62%52%61%60%52%23%89%42%22%68%87%14%90%53%53%40%59%58%43%77%69%57%56%45%63%69%29%75%50%67%57%57%58%55%
Cronk (WF)1%1%1%1%1%1%0%3%1%1%2%1%1%2%0%2%2%2%1%1%1%1%2%1%0%1%1%0%3%2%1%1%1%1%1%0%2%1%1%0%2%1%2%
Delphine (L)1%1%0%0%1%0%2%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%2%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%2%1%0%0%2%0%0%1%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%0%
Staggenborg (P)0%2%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%0%0%1%0%1%0%
Undecided9%28%30%2%8%11%19%11%7%3%14%5%5%15%8%4%17%11%7%6%9%4%5%25%20%7%8%2%2%2%8%10%1%2%2%10%6%9%9%10%9%8%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%13%14%74%48%52%16%29%30%25%45%55%60%40%31%45%21%32%37%23%28%39%15%17%8%43%46%41%13%45%49%51%37%21%41%34%60%50%46%43%57%64%36%
 
 
3Oregon voters may also vote on several ballot measures. On Measure 74, medical marijuana, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
580 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+Already Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%CPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Yes35%32%31%37%38%33%39%35%41%27%37%35%40%29%21%48%33%18%38%61%21%52%27%30%40%33%37%33%38%41%34%37%27%40%45%19%47%36%38%38%36%34%38%
No45%30%36%50%46%45%37%37%43%64%37%52%53%34%62%34%43%64%42%20%65%28%57%41%41%48%44%57%39%45%44%46%61%45%41%65%34%48%40%47%43%46%45%
Not Certain19%38%33%13%16%22%24%28%16%9%26%13%7%37%17%17%24%18%19%20%13%21%16%28%19%19%19%10%23%13%21%17%12%15%14%16%19%16%22%16%21%20%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%13%14%74%48%52%16%29%30%25%45%55%60%40%31%45%21%32%37%23%28%39%15%17%8%43%46%41%13%45%49%51%37%21%41%34%60%50%46%43%57%64%36%
 
 
4On Measure 75, on a privately-owned Multnomah County casino, are you ... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
580 Likely & Actual VotersAllInterview ConductedGenderAge<50 / 50+Already Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementVote in Midterms2010 Enthusiasm Vs PriorCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%CPO, livBoth CelHome phoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+YesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniRarelyUsuallyAlwaysMoreLessSameYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Yes24%19%14%26%26%21%26%25%24%19%26%22%31%13%24%22%27%22%25%20%29%20%28%19%18%27%22%29%20%25%21%26%19%28%31%20%26%29%18%25%24%24%23%
No54%28%40%61%52%56%37%47%59%68%43%63%63%41%55%58%47%55%55%55%53%61%52%44%51%52%58%61%66%62%58%51%70%56%59%56%55%49%60%54%55%57%50%
Not Certain22%53%46%12%22%22%37%28%17%13%31%15%6%46%22%19%26%22%20%25%19%20%20%37%31%22%20%10%14%13%22%23%11%16%10%23%19%21%22%22%21%19%27%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%13%14%74%48%52%16%29%30%25%45%55%60%40%31%45%21%32%37%23%28%39%15%17%8%43%46%41%13%45%49%51%37%21%41%34%60%50%46%43%57%64%36%