In San Diego, Election Eve, Lots of Heat, Perhaps Not As Much Light, in Fiercely Fought Mayor's Election:
24 hours till votes are counted in San Diego, Bob Filner appears to maintain a narrow advantage over Carl DeMaio, according to SurveyUSA's 5th and final pre-election tracking poll on the contest. But DeMaio has momentum and is up 5 points compared to a SurveyUSA poll 2 weeks ago. Filner has led in all 5 polls, though by margins as small as 3 percentage points and by margins as large as 12 percentage points. Here, at the wire, SurveyUSA has it Filner 49%, DeMaio 45%, with 7% of likely voters undecided. For those who prefer other outcomes, SurveyUSA observes that one competing poll shows the contest tied, and another competing poll shows DeMaio ahead. One of these polls will likely end up being closer than the others.
In SurveyUSA's final poll, Filner's advantage comes from women. Men tie, 46% to 46%. Filner leads among women 51% to 43%. DeMaio's support is older, and older voters are more reliable, in general, than are younger voters. Younger voters favor Filner. DeMaio leads among white voters. Filner's advantage comes from minority voters. Filner holds 76% of Democratic voters. DeMaio holds 76% of Republican voters. Independents, who had voted for Filner in each of 4 previous polls, today break sharply for DeMaio.
Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 10/31/12 through 11/04/12. Of the adults, 696 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 611 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (79% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (21% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.