Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17480
WA-02: Incumbent Democrat Larsen In Tight Fight For Sixth Term; Will Koster Capture this House Seat for GOP? In an election for US House of Representatives in Washington's 2nd Congressional District today, 10/22/10, Democratic incumbent Rick Larsen remains narrowly atop his Republican challenger, Snohomish County Council member John Koster, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released 3 weeks ago, little has changed; Larsen is flat at 50%, Koster down a nominal point from 47% to 46%. But: early voting has begun, and among those who have returned a ballot, Koster and Larsen are tied. To win, Larsen must out-perform Koster among those who promise to mail a ballot but who have not yet done so. Koster remains ahead among men, Larsen remains ahead among women -- a 20-point gender gap. Koster remains ahead among voters under age 50, Larsen remains ahead among older, more reliable voters, where his lead has increased from 4 points at the start of September to 10 points 3 weeks ago to 14 points today. Voters who are more enthusiastic about voting in 2010 than in past elections vote Republican 2:1; voters who are less enthusiastic in 2010 vote Democrat 3:1. Those who rarely vote in midterm elections, but who are uniquely motivated to vote in 2010, vote Republican 3:2; those who almost always vote in midterms vote Democrat 3:2.

Filtering: 700 registered voters from Washington's 2nd Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 10/19/10 through 10/21/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 643 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted or to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election for US House of Representatives.
[Candidate names rotated]
If you were filling out your ballot in the election for U.S. House of Representatives today, who would you vote for? Republican John Koster? Or Democrat Rick Larsen?
643 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortion2010 Enthusiasm Vs. PrioVote in MidtermsOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtYesNoRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiMoreLessSameRarelyUsuallyAlwaysYesNo< $50K> $50K
John Koster (R)46%52%41%52%55%42%40%54%41%45%****43%49%45%92%6%48%87%31%7%91%6%52%40%44%48%58%40%35%77%25%64%25%34%56%47%42%55%33%37%50%
Rick Larsen (D)50%46%55%45%42%55%55%43%55%51%****53%48%52%7%91%46%10%65%90%7%93%42%49%54%48%37%58%62%20%73%34%66%63%37%49%57%42%64%58%48%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%48%52%15%26%36%23%41%59%88%3%4%6%38%62%30%36%33%36%37%22%32%39%22%7%49%51%42%21%37%40%57%42%12%46%10%45%44%52%45%34%66%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.