Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #15491
 
Donaldson Moves Up in Race for Place on Seattle Mayor November Ballot: In a primary election for Seattle Mayor held today, 06/25/2009, two months until votes are counted, incumbent mayor Greg Nickels advances to the November general election, according to this latest exclusive KING-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA -- but the identity of his November opponent is today unclear.

Today, Nickels takes 24% of the vote; City Council member Jan Drago takes 15%. Compared to a SurveyUSA poll released three weeks ago, Nickels is down 1 point; Drago is down 2. Effectively tied for 2nd place with Drago is former Seattle Sonic James Donaldson, now a motivational speaker and businessman, who today gets 14%, up from 9% three weeks ago. Five other candidates are in single digits. 26% of likely voters are undecided. With 34 days remaining until voting begins, further shifts are likely to occur as voters begin to focus.

Nickels, who is seeking a third term, leads among both men and women, among voters of all age groups, and among those who identify themselves as Democrats. The office is non-partisan, though Nickels is a member of the Democratic Party. Nickels has lost ground to Donaldson among independent voters, where Donaldson now holds a small lead, and among moderates, where Donaldson and Nickels essentially tie.

Drago, first elected to the city council in 1994, today leads among Republicans and conservatives.

Donaldson continues to run twice as strongly with men as with women, and today takes 1 in 5 Republican votes and 1 in 5 independent votes.

 
Shopping Bag Referendum Divides Seattle Voters: Half of Seattle likely voters today say they are certain to vote yes on a ballot referendum that would require a 20 cent fee on disposable shopping bags; half say they are certain to vote no. Support for the measure is highest among young voters and among liberals, Democrats, and those with college degrees. Opposition is strongest among Republicans, conservatives, those without college educations, and among the oldest voters. Those who say they will vote for Nickels in the primary support the referendum 2:1; those who say they will vote for Donaldson oppose by almost 2:1; Drago voters are also opposed, though less sharply. Opposition to ballot measures often rises as an election approaches. Ballot measures in general are more volatile than candidate elections. Future poll results may show a shift in opinion as voters focus more on the issue.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,050 adults from the city of Seattle 06/22/09 through 06/24/09. Of them, 943 identified themselves as being registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 505 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the primary. The election will be conducted entirely by mail; ballots begin to be mailed on July 29. The last day to vote is 08/18/09. The top two candidates emerging from the primary will face each other in the November 3 general election.
 
If the primary election for Seattle Mayor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Greg Nickels? Jan Drago? James Donaldson? Joe Mallahan? Kwame Wyking Garrett? Norman Zadok Sigler? Mike McGinn? Or, Elizabeth Campbell?
505 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradIncomePrimary Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K> $50KNickelsDragoDonaldsoOtherUndecide
Nickels24%24%23%22%23%26%25%23%25%24%26%**14%15%28%17%15%18%33%25%21%30%23%100%0%0%0%0%
Drago15%15%14%11%13%17%19%12%18%15%8%**12%23%14%9%24%15%13%16%11%10%17%0%100%0%0%0%
Donaldson14%19%9%9%18%15%13%14%14%14%19%**12%20%12%20%13%19%11%15%12%10%14%0%0%100%0%0%
Mallahan7%7%6%8%6%7%6%7%7%7%2%**7%12%6%6%15%7%4%6%6%7%6%0%0%0%31%0%
Garrett3%4%2%5%2%3%1%4%2%2%9%**1%2%3%2%4%2%3%3%2%6%2%0%0%0%13%0%
Sigler2%3%1%3%2%0%3%2%1%2%2%**1%1%2%1%1%3%1%2%1%2%1%0%0%0%8%0%
McGinn8%7%8%12%10%5%4%11%5%7%13%**13%5%8%10%5%8%9%7%9%8%8%0%0%0%36%0%
Campbell3%3%3%0%2%4%5%1%5%3%0%**5%3%3%1%3%2%3%1%7%4%3%0%0%0%13%0%
Undecided26%17%34%31%25%24%24%28%24%26%21%**33%20%25%33%21%27%24%25%29%24%26%0%0%0%0%100%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%29%27%20%53%47%78%6%3%13%12%68%19%11%39%45%73%27%29%71%24%15%14%22%26%
 
 
Also on the ballot is Referendum 1, which would add a 20 cent fee on disposable shopping bags. On Referendum 1, , are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Voters who were not certain were asked: At this hour, on Referendum 1, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?}
505 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradIncomePrimary Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNo< $50K> $50KNickelsDragoDonaldsoOtherUndecide
Yes47%46%48%66%49%38%34%57%36%49%35%**36%19%55%38%30%37%62%54%27%38%50%60%43%35%38%51%
No46%48%44%30%46%52%56%39%54%44%52%**52%74%38%53%65%56%34%39%63%53%43%33%56%62%55%35%
Not Certain7%6%8%4%5%10%10%5%10%6%13%**12%8%7%9%6%7%5%6%10%9%7%7%2%3%6%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%29%27%20%53%47%78%6%3%13%12%68%19%11%39%45%73%27%29%71%24%15%14%22%26%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.