Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19451
 
On Eve of MO Democratic Primary, Incumbent Clay Leads Displaced Carnahan in MO-01; Democrats Keep the Seat in November:

48 hours till votes are counted in the Democratic primary for the U.S. House of Representatives in Missouri's newly-drawn 1st Congressional District, incumbent Lacy Clay defeats odd-man-out Congressman Russ Carnahan, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St. Louis. Black turnout will decide Clay's exact margin of victory, but SurveyUSA shows Clay comfortably ahead, 56% to 35%. If the district's African Americans vote in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here models, Clay's margin of victory will be smaller.

White Democratic primary voters go 3:1 for Carnahan, who was redistricted out of his existing seat in Congress. Black Democratic primary voters go 7:1 for Clay.

Carnahan leads 5:2 among Independents, who are permitted to vote in the primary, but that is not enough to overcome Clay's 2:1 advantage among registered Democratcs. Carnahan leads among conservatives, but that is not enough to overcome Clay's advantage among moderates and liberals. Clay leads among the less affluent and the more affluent. Clay leads among the more educated and the less educated. Clay leads among young and old.

Looking ahead to the general election in November, the winner of the 08/07/12 Democratic primary (be it Clay or Carnahan) defeats the winner of the 08/07/12 Republican Primary (be it Robyn Hamlin or Martin Baker) by 3:1. Democrats are certain to hold the House Seat.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 950 registered voters from the state of MO 08/02/12 through 08/04/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 490 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to request a Democratic ballot in the 08/07/12 Missouri primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (78% of registered voters, 91% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a profesional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (22% of registered voters, 9% of likely voters) were interviewed on their cell phone by trained interviewers, who hand-dialed the phone, read the questions to the respondents, recorded the respondents' answer, and remained on the line until the call was complete.

 
1If the 1st Congressional District primary were today, and you were filling out your Democratic primary ballot now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Lacy Clay? Russ Carnahan? Or Candice Britton?
490 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Lacy Clay56%51%59%58%62%54%54%60%54%23%81%49%56%**60%24%36%52%59%52%57%56%58%54%54%
Russ Carnahan35%42%31%34%23%37%39%27%38%65%12%33%36%**32%62%41%39%36%38%31%38%31%35%44%
Candice Britton2%2%2%2%4%2%1%3%1%3%1%0%2%**1%5%7%1%2%1%2%2%2%3%0%
Undecided7%5%9%6%10%8%6%9%7%9%7%18%6%**7%9%17%8%3%9%11%5%9%8%2%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%42%58%9%15%38%38%24%76%42%53%9%91%2%85%12%7%48%34%18%32%50%33%40%27%
 
 
2Thinking ahead now to the November general election in the 1st Congressional District ... If the election for US House of Representatives were today, and the only candidates on the ballot were Republican Robyn Hamlin, Democrat Lacy Clay, and Libertarian Robb Cunningham, who would you vote for?
950 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Robyn Hamlin (R)19%22%16%10%18%23%19%15%21%28%5%14%20%66%4%28%51%14%4%18%19%20%16%21%20%
Lacy Clay (D)58%54%61%51%62%55%61%58%58%42%81%39%63%14%83%28%21%66%82%54%58%59%58%59%60%
Robb Cunningham (L)6%7%5%6%6%5%6%6%6%8%3%9%5%8%2%13%7%6%4%5%6%6%6%5%7%
Undecided18%17%18%32%14%16%15%22%16%21%12%38%12%12%10%31%20%14%10%23%17%15%20%15%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%44%56%13%20%34%33%33%67%55%39%22%78%15%59%23%23%41%24%20%32%48%33%38%29%
 
 
3OK, what if it were Republican Robyn Hamlin, Democrat Russ Carnahan, and Libertarian Robb Cunningham?
950 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Robyn Hamlin (R)18%19%17%13%16%21%17%15%19%27%5%18%17%71%2%24%54%10%3%18%16%19%15%19%20%
Russ Carnahan (D)56%55%58%45%62%56%58%55%57%50%66%35%62%14%77%40%22%70%75%54%54%59%54%57%60%
Robb Cunningham (L)6%9%4%9%9%5%5%9%5%7%5%12%5%7%4%12%6%6%7%2%9%7%6%6%7%
Undecided20%17%22%33%13%18%20%21%19%16%24%34%16%8%18%24%19%14%15%26%22%15%25%18%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%44%56%13%20%34%33%33%67%55%39%22%78%15%59%23%23%41%24%20%32%48%33%38%29%
 
 
4Now what if it were Republican Martin Baker, Democrat Lacy Clay, and Libertarian Robb Cunningham?
950 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Martin Baker (R)18%23%14%13%19%21%16%17%18%26%5%15%19%65%3%26%49%13%3%16%17%20%13%20%23%
Lacy Clay (D)58%53%63%47%61%57%62%56%60%42%83%39%64%11%85%29%25%66%80%56%59%59%61%58%58%
Robb Cunningham (L)7%10%5%12%6%7%7%8%7%10%3%12%6%10%3%15%8%8%7%8%7%7%8%7%7%
Undecided17%15%18%27%14%15%15%19%15%21%8%35%11%14%8%30%17%13%10%20%17%15%18%16%12%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%44%56%13%20%34%33%33%67%55%39%22%78%15%59%23%23%41%24%20%32%48%33%38%29%
 
 
5And what if it were Republican Martin Baker, Democrat Russ Carnahan, and Libertarian Robb Cunningham?
950 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Martin Baker (R)17%19%15%14%17%18%16%16%17%26%5%19%16%71%2%22%53%9%3%17%15%19%14%18%20%
Russ Carnahan (D)56%54%58%44%61%56%58%54%57%50%67%34%63%8%78%39%22%68%76%51%56%59%55%57%60%
Robb Cunningham (L)7%9%5%10%8%6%5%9%6%8%5%12%5%10%3%13%7%7%7%6%7%7%7%7%6%
Undecided20%18%22%32%13%19%21%20%20%17%23%35%16%11%17%26%18%16%14%25%23%16%25%18%13%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%44%56%13%20%34%33%33%67%55%39%22%78%15%59%23%23%41%24%20%32%48%33%38%29%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.