Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20709
Jump Ball In Race to Replace Filner as SD Mayor:

In a special election for San Diego mayor today, 08/25/13, no one candidate holds a commanding lead, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KGTV-TV and the Union-Tribune newspaper. SurveyUSA asked likely voters in an upcoming special election which of 10 potential candidates they would vote for if each appeared on the ballot.

* Former City Council member Carl DeMaio gets 18% today, with disproportionate support from conservatives, whites, and Republicans.
* Former State Assembly member Nathan Fletcher gets 16%, with disproportionate support among Democrats and those earning over $80,000.
* Former City Council member Donna Frye gets 14%, with strong support from liberals, independents, middle-income voters, and Asian-Americans.
* City Council member Marti Emerald gets 10% today, with outsized support among the youngest voters and among Latinos.
* City Council member Todd Gloria, who will become interim mayor when incumbent Bob Filner's resignation takes effect, is at 9%.
* Five other candidates trail; 13% of likely voters today are undecided.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 city of San Diego adults 08/24/13 through 08/25/13. Of the adults, 688 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 513 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the upcoming special election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.
1If the special election for San Diego mayor were today, and these were the only candidates on the ballot, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated)
513 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncome
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Nathan Fletcher16%17%15%15%17%16%16%16%16%18%**6%24%18%19%9%16%16%17%14%14%17%7%9%24%
Carl DeMaio18%17%19%12%21%20%20%16%20%23%**12%14%26%13%17%28%14%17%6%22%18%19%20%17%
Donna Frye14%15%12%17%12%16%10%14%13%15%**8%19%5%16%22%1%13%27%12%14%14%14%19%10%
Kevin Faulconer6%6%5%6%2%6%10%4%8%9%**2%3%9%4%3%8%7%0%12%3%6%10%2%6%
Todd Gloria9%9%10%2%14%9%14%8%11%8%**15%5%3%13%13%7%9%13%10%6%11%13%12%4%
Jan Goldsmith6%4%9%7%5%5%7%6%6%6%**4%6%12%2%1%16%5%0%9%7%5%3%9%6%
Christine Kehoe3%3%3%0%1%7%4%0%6%3%**2%5%1%5%2%1%3%5%2%2%4%2%2%4%
Toni Atkins1%2%1%0%2%1%1%1%1%1%**1%0%0%1%1%2%1%2%0%1%1%1%0%2%
Ron Roberts4%6%3%0%8%6%3%4%5%4%**6%3%6%3%4%7%4%2%6%4%5%8%3%4%
Marti Emerald10%13%6%24%6%3%4%15%4%4%**26%3%6%11%15%4%15%4%15%15%7%6%8%14%
Composition of Likely Voters100%54%46%28%29%25%18%57%43%54%5%24%17%31%46%21%21%50%25%11%32%57%22%34%45%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.