Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #6673
Analysis: In a Primary for Mayor of Mobile today, 8/22/05, the eve of the 8/23/05 vote, Sam Jones gets 45% of the vote, short of what Jones needs to avoid a runoff, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 565 likely Mobile voters, conducted exclusively for WKRG-TV. In a fierce fight for 2nd place, John Peavy finishes with 21%, Ann Bedsole gets 18%, Bess Rich gets 14%. If no one candidate gets 50% of the vote, the top 2 finishers move to a runoff on 9/13/05. In 4 polls conducted by SurveyUSA for WKRG-TV over the past 3 months, Jones's share of the vote has increased each time, from 37% in May to 45% now. Jones's share of the African-American vote has increased from 79% to 92%. 32% of white voters pick Peavy. Jones finishes 4th among white voters and among Republicans. Results of this poll are largely dependent on turnout. SurveyUSA's final poll assumes 61% of likely Primary voters are white, 37% are black. If blacks vote in larger numbers, Jones will outperform SurveyUSA's 45% figure. If blacks vote in smaller numbers, Jones will underperform, and a runoff is certain. In a runoff, the 2nd-place finisher will pick up most of the votes from the 3rd- and 4th-place finishers, since Peavy, Bedsole, and Rich all draw from the same White, Republican base.
Filtering: 1,400 City of Mobile adults were interviewed 8/19/05 - 8/21/05. Of them, 1,221 were registered to vote. Of them, 565 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
Voters in Mobile will elect a Mayor on August 23rd. If the Mobile Mayoral election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Ann Bedsole? Sam Jones? John Peavy? Bess Rich? Or some other candidate?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyEducationIdeology
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependNot SureGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleConservaModerateLiberalNot Sure
Composition of Likely Voters100%46%54%20%32%27%21%61%37%1%2%36%44%19%1%21%26%25%28%43%40%13%4%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.