Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17226
In KS-04, Republican Pompeo Positioned to Hold Tiahrt's Open House Seat for GOP; Democrat Goyle Running Out of Runway: Five days until advance voting begins, Republican Mike Pompeo begins to seal-the-deal in his bid for the open US House seat in Kansas' 4th Congressional District, pulling away from Democrat Raj Goyle, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted exclusively for KWCH-TV Wichita.

It's Pompeo 53%, Goyle 40% today. In 3 SurveyUSA polls going back two months, Pompeo has led by 7, 10 and today 13 points. Two months ago, less affluent voters, crucial to any Democrat's chances, voted 5:3 Democrat. Today, less-affluent voters have flipped, 6:5 Republican. Those who attend religious services regularly, crucial to any Republican's chances, have gone from 3:2 Republican to 2:1 Republican. Voters age 50+, among the most reliable in a non-presidential year, have moved from 5:4 Democrat 2 months ago to 5:4 Republican today.

Incumbent Republican Todd Tiahrt, first elected in 1994, did not run for re-election to the US House in order to run in the Republican primary for US Senate, where he was defeated by KS-01 Representative Jerry Moran.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 adults from Kansas' 4th Congressional District 10/06/10 through 10/07/10. Of them, 788 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 539 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election. All interviews were conducted after a candidate debate on 10/05/10. Advance voting begins in 5 days, on 10/13/10.
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? Republican Mike Pompeo? Democrat Raj Goyle? Libertarian Shawn Smith? Or Reform Party candidate Susan Ducey?
539 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Credibility Interval: ± 4.3 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Mike Pompeo (R)53%58%49%53%59%52%50%57%51%54%******76%14%42%80%31%14%83%9%57%51%52%57%62%45%37%73%32%61%42%49%58%
Raj Goyle (D)40%36%43%40%35%41%42%37%42%38%******18%81%47%13%64%83%8%87%37%41%44%35%33%47%55%21%61%33%51%41%39%
Shawn Smith (L)2%2%1%0%1%3%2%1%2%2%******2%0%4%3%1%0%2%1%2%1%1%3%2%1%2%2%2%1%2%3%1%
Susan Ducey (RP)2%1%3%2%3%2%2%2%2%2%******2%1%3%2%1%3%3%1%1%1%2%2%2%2%3%2%2%1%3%4%1%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%13%27%33%28%40%60%89%4%3%3%57%29%13%50%32%13%41%27%24%9%51%49%62%19%19%51%46%59%38%39%61%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.