Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #5502
On the eve of the 5/7/05 San Antonio Mayoral election, Julian Castro defeats Phil Hardberger and Carroll Schubert, but appears to fall short of the 50% + 1 needed to avoid a runoff on 6/7/05. In four identical SurveyUSA WOAI-TV tracking polls conducted over the past 8 weeks, Castro has never polled below 43% and never polled above 46%. He ends at 46%, up 1 point from 10 days ago. In four identical tracking polls, Hardberger has never polled below 26% and never polled above 28%. He ends at 26%, unchanged from 10 days ago. Schubert, the only candidate with momentum in earlier tracking polls, has none at the finish line. He ends at 24%, unchanged from 10 days ago. Castro gets 71% of Hispanic vote, 18% of white vote. Hardberger and Schubert split the white vote. Castro's support is strongest among young voters, who are the least reliable voters, and liberals. Schubert does best among Republican voters and conservatives. Hardberger is strongest among older voters, who are the most reliable voters and who may have additional incentive to vote because of Proposition 3, also on the ballot. Castro's support is up slightly among female likely voters. Hardberger's support is down slightly among female likely voters. *** Filtering: 2,000 City of San Antonio adults were interviewed 5/3/05 - 5/5/05. Of them, 1,705 were registered to vote. Of them, 499 were judged to be "likely voters". Crosstabs reflect "likely voters." Interviews were conducted in both English and Spanish.
1Voters in San Antonio will elect a Mayor on Saturday. If the San Antonio Mayoral election were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Julian Castro? Phil Hardberger? Carroll Schubert? Or some other candidate?
499 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyEducationIdeology
Credibility Interval: ± 4.5 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+HispanicBlackWhiteAsian/OtRepublicDemocratIndependNot SureGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleConservaModerateLiberalNot Sure
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%16%29%31%23%47%7%44%3%37%42%20%1%26%26%32%17%38%45%15%2%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.