Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #4836
36 Hours Before Polls Open, Kansas Marriage Amendment Appears Likely to Pass. Those who favor the Amendment are much more likely to vote than those who do not. If voter turnout is high, the margin of victory may be closer, but the Amendment is still almost certain to pass. Conservatives favor the Amendment 4:1. Two thirds of likely voters attend church regularly, and they favor the Amendment 2:1. Democrats oppose the Amendment, but they are just one quarter of likely voters. In an identical poll released 3/21/05, the Amendment passed by a 12-point margin; it now passes by 25 points. Most of this movement comes from Amendment supporters becoming more certain to vote, rather than from voters changing their minds about the Amendment. Filtering: 1800 Kansas adults were interviewed by telephone 3/30/05-4/2/05. Of them, 1508 were registered to vote. Of them, 579 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters. All interviews were conducted before the death of Pope John Paul II. It is unclear whether the Pope's passing will have any influence on voter turnout, or on how Kansans view the proposed Amendment.
1On Tuesday, Kansas will hold a special election on whether to amend the state constitution. On the ballot is a Marriage Amendment. The exact language is this: "The marriage contract is to be considered in law as a civil contract. Marriage shall be constituted by one man and one woman only. All other marriages are declared to be contrary to the public policy of this state and are void. No relationship, other than a marriage, shall be recognized by the state as entitling the parties to the rights or incidents of marriage." If you were standing in the voting booth right now, would you vote "Yes", to amend the state constitution? Or "No", to leave the constitution unchanged?
579 Likely VotersAllParty AffiliationIdeologyParent Of Child GenderAge GroupRaceEducationChurchRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsRepublicDemocratIndependNot SureConservaModerateLiberalNot SureYesNoMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherNot Yet High SchStarted College GraduateNeverOccasionRegularlWestern Wichita Eastern
Composition of Likely Voters100%58%26%16%0%52%38%8%2%35%65%48%52%20%30%26%24%88%3%5%4%5%20%28%26%21%12%22%66%20%26%54%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.