Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #21277
 
GOP Fresno Mayor Swearengin Certain to Advance in 3-Way Battle To Be CA State Controller, But Which Democrat Will Be Her Opponent?

Secretary of State candidates Alex Padilla and Pete Peterson will advance from the 06/03/14 California Primary to the 11/04/14 general election, the latest SurveyUSA poll finds. Democrat Padilla holds 78% of the Democratic base. Republican Peterson holds 79% of the Democratic base.

Republican Fresno Mayor Ashley Swearengin is certain to advance to the general election, but which 1 of 2 Democrats will oppose her in the battle for State Controller remains to be seen. Swearengin has 31% of the Primary vote today, compared to 24% for Betty Yee and 18% for John Perez. Swearengin is backed by older, more reliable voters, by whites, Republicans and conservatives. Yee is backed disproportionately by women; Perez is backed disproportionately by men. The 2 Democrats split the liberal vote. Top 2 finishers advance.

Democratic incumbent Jerry Brown is certain to advance from the gubernatorial Primary to the general election, but it not yet clear whether his titular opponent will be Republican Tim Donnelly or Republican Neel Kashkari. Brown is effectively unchallenged, with 57% of the Primary vote, and a shoo-in for re-election in the general election, but who will be sacrificial lamb opposite him on the general election ballot is unclear.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 state of CA adults 05/16/14 through 05/19/14. Of the adults, 871 were registered to vote. Of the registered, 610 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted in the 06/03/14 CA Primary, or were determined by SurveyUSA to be certain to vote before the deadline. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (70% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (30% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device.

 
1If the primary election for California governor were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Democrat Jerry Brown? Republican Tim Donnelly? Republican Neel Kashkari? Or another candidate?
610 Likely & Actual Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVotedCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Already Likely ELikely DCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Jerry Brown (D)57%57%56%63%56%55%54%59%54%47%77%68%58%65%52%58%61%55%13%90%43%14%67%84%56%51%60%53%54%61%53%62%38%69%
Tim Donnelly (R)18%16%21%15%22%18%17%19%18%23%6%14%15%15%17%20%17%19%48%2%15%48%10%2%18%20%17%18%19%18%22%16%26%11%
Neel Kashkari (R)11%13%9%6%4%15%20%5%17%15%8%8%6%11%13%10%4%15%24%2%15%24%9%3%13%13%10%12%12%10%12%10%19%6%
Another Candidate4%4%5%4%5%2%7%5%4%5%1%1%8%8%6%2%4%4%3%2%8%4%3%5%2%6%4%7%5%2%4%5%3%4%
Undecided10%10%9%11%13%10%3%12%7%10%8%8%11%1%13%9%14%8%12%4%18%10%11%6%11%9%9%10%10%9%10%7%14%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Primary Voters100%51%49%18%26%34%22%44%56%51%5%30%13%13%42%45%30%70%29%47%23%27%45%23%10%32%58%24%35%41%24%37%19%19%
 
 
2If the primary election for State Controller were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Ashley Swearengin? Democrat Betty Yee? Democrat John Perez? Or another candidate?
610 Likely & Actual Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVotedCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Already Likely ELikely DCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Ashley Swearengin (R)31%31%31%22%30%34%36%27%35%37%15%26%26%23%31%33%21%35%73%5%31%69%21%8%33%32%30%35%31%28%35%29%45%17%
Betty Yee (D)24%20%29%31%23%21%25%26%23%21%40%30%20%35%22%23%24%24%3%42%15%4%29%38%29%19%27%25%18%29%26%23%16%33%
John Perez (D)18%21%15%24%17%16%17%20%17%15%25%25%13%22%15%20%24%16%3%32%10%3%22%30%15%22%17%19%19%18%14%20%15%23%
Another Candidate8%9%7%7%8%8%11%8%9%11%3%3%11%13%9%6%5%10%8%4%17%10%6%8%4%9%8%6%10%8%9%10%6%7%
Undecided18%19%17%17%21%21%11%19%17%16%16%16%30%6%22%17%26%15%12%17%27%13%22%15%20%18%17%14%21%17%16%18%18%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Primary Voters100%51%49%18%26%34%22%44%56%51%5%30%13%13%42%45%30%70%29%47%23%27%45%23%10%32%58%24%35%41%24%37%19%19%
 
 
3If the primary election for California Secretary of State were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Republican Pete Peterson? Democrat Alex Padilla? Or another candidate?
610 Likely & Actual Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceVotedCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Already Likely ELikely DCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Pete Peterson (R)32%34%31%26%31%32%40%29%35%39%19%27%24%27%31%35%23%36%79%5%30%77%21%6%34%34%32%35%32%30%33%31%43%23%
Alex Padilla (D)48%46%50%59%49%45%41%53%43%38%61%61%48%50%47%47%59%43%7%78%37%11%58%73%49%46%48%43%50%51%44%51%38%56%
Another Candidate9%8%10%5%8%8%15%7%11%12%9%5%8%17%9%6%5%11%5%8%15%7%7%13%8%9%9%7%9%9%11%7%10%9%
Undecided11%12%10%9%13%15%4%11%11%11%11%7%19%6%12%12%13%10%8%9%19%6%14%8%10%11%11%14%9%10%13%11%9%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Primary Voters100%51%49%18%26%34%22%44%56%51%5%30%13%13%42%45%30%70%29%47%23%27%45%23%10%32%58%24%35%41%24%37%19%19%