Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #18728
 
In California, Obama 11 Points Atop Romney, 24 Points Atop Gingrich; VP Hillary Would Add 8 Points to Obama Defeat of Romney:

SurveyUSA looks at the two most likely Republican nominees, alone and paired as a Republican ticket, running against the existing Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and a new Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Here is the progression of match-ups, and the results:

* Obama 50%
* Romney 39%
* Democrat by 11 points.

* Obama 56%
* Gingrich 32%
* Democrat by 24 points.

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 52%
* Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 38%
* Democrats by 14 points.

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 57%
* Republican ticket of Romney-Gingrich 35%
* Democrats by 22 points.

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Biden 53%
* Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 35%
* Democrats by 18 points.

* Democratic ticket of Obama-Clinton 57%
* Republican ticket of Gingrich-Romney 33%
* Democrats by 24 points.

Let's look at women: The Obama-Biden ticket gets 51% of female votes against Romney-Gingrich and 52% of female votes against Gingrich-Romney. But, an Obama-Clinton ticket gets 58% of the female vote against a Romney-Gingrich ticket and 59% of the female vote against a Gingrich-Romney ticket. Said another way: With Biden on the ticket, Obama carries CA women by an average of 14.5 points. With Clinton on the ticket, Obama carries CA women by an average of 25.5 points.

Let's look at Independents: The Obama-Biden ticket gets 46% of Independent votes against Romney-Gingrich and 47% of Independent votes against Gingrich-Romney. But, an Obama-Clinton ticket gets 52% of the Independent vote against a Romney-Gingrich ticket and 53% of the Independent vote against a Gingrich-Romney ticket. Said another way: With Biden on the ticket, Obama carries CA Independent by an average of 14 points. With Clinton on the ticket, Obama carries CA Independents by an average of 21.5 points.

In 2008, Barack Obama carried California by 24 points over John McCain. California's 55 electoral votes are 20% of the total needed to win the White House, and are the foundation of Obama's re-election pyramid.

Cell-phone respondents and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of CA adults 11/10/11. The survey was conducted multi-mode. Respondents who use a home phone (75% of adults) were interviewed on their home phone in the voice of a professional announcer. Respondents who do not use a home phone (25% of adults) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop, tablet or other electronic device.

 
1Now I'm going to ask you about the election for president. There are a number of questions that might sound similar, but each question is in fact different. First, If there were an election for president today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Obama (D)50%50%50%56%48%47%42%52%45%45%82%51%49%54%48%15%78%44%11%54%16%52%86%61%47%43%42%49%41%66%
Romney (R)39%39%38%29%41%42%53%35%47%45%8%35%37%29%42%79%15%35%82%35%75%35%7%29%41%46%42%42%46%25%
Undecided12%11%12%15%11%11%5%13%9%10%10%13%14%17%10%6%7%21%7%11%9%13%7%11%12%12%16%10%14%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%35%31%20%15%66%34%51%6%28%15%25%75%26%38%35%8%88%26%48%21%33%32%35%19%41%18%21%
 
 
2What if the only two candidates on the ballot were Democrat Barack Obama and Republican Newt Gingrich?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Obama (D)56%57%54%64%55%50%46%60%48%52%81%59%52%65%53%19%83%53%15%60%20%61%90%67%52%49%50%54%48%72%
Gingrich (R)32%32%32%22%32%37%48%27%42%38%8%29%29%18%37%69%12%27%77%28%68%26%5%22%34%39%36%34%39%18%
Undecided12%11%13%14%13%13%6%13%10%10%11%13%19%17%10%11%6%20%8%12%13%13%6%10%14%12%14%12%13%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%35%31%20%15%66%34%51%6%28%15%25%75%26%38%35%8%88%26%48%21%33%32%35%19%41%18%21%
 
 
3OK, listen carefully, what if your choice was between Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican Ticket of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Obama/Biden (D)52%53%51%59%50%48%45%55%46%48%77%54%52%58%50%18%80%46%13%56%19%54%88%64%48%45%42%52%44%67%
Romney/Gingrich (R)38%36%40%28%42%40%51%34%45%44%8%35%36%29%41%77%15%34%80%34%71%35%6%24%40%48%47%38%43%25%
Undecided10%11%9%13%8%12%4%11%9%9%15%11%12%13%9%5%4%20%7%10%9%12%6%12%12%7%11%10%13%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%35%31%20%15%66%34%51%6%28%15%25%75%26%38%35%8%88%26%48%21%33%32%35%19%41%18%21%
 
 
4OK, what if your choice was between Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the Republican Ticket of Mitt Romney and Newt Gingrich, who would you vote for?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Obama/Clinton (D)57%55%58%61%57%55%49%59%52%50%86%59%63%60%56%23%84%52%13%62%23%59%93%68%52%52%45%58%48%74%
Romney/Gingrich (R)35%35%34%26%37%35%48%31%40%43%8%29%27%26%38%72%11%32%80%30%68%31%3%23%37%41%42%35%43%20%
Undecided9%9%8%12%6%11%3%9%8%7%6%12%10%14%7%5%5%16%8%8%8%10%4%8%10%7%13%7%9%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%35%31%20%15%66%34%51%6%28%15%25%75%26%38%35%8%88%26%48%21%33%32%35%19%41%18%21%
 
 
5Last two pairings..., what if your choice was between Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Joe Biden, and the Republican Ticket of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Obama/Biden (D)53%53%52%58%53%48%45%56%47%48%82%56%50%57%51%19%81%47%15%57%19%56%88%61%51%48%46%52%43%68%
Gingrich/Romney (R)35%36%34%27%35%37%49%31%43%41%8%32%32%23%39%73%13%31%79%31%70%29%6%26%36%41%41%38%39%21%
Undecided12%11%14%15%11%14%6%13%11%11%10%12%18%20%10%8%6%22%6%12%11%15%6%14%14%10%13%10%18%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%35%31%20%15%66%34%51%6%28%15%25%75%26%38%35%8%88%26%48%21%33%32%35%19%41%18%21%
 
 
6OK, what if your choice was between the Democratic ticket of Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, and the Republican Ticket of Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney, who would you vote for?
800 AdultsAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberal< $40K$40K - $> $80KCentral Greater Inland EBay Area
Obama/Clinton (D)57%55%59%62%58%55%48%60%52%52%86%60%60%62%56%23%85%53%12%62%25%60%92%67%53%54%49%57%47%75%
Gingrich/Romney (R)33%35%32%26%34%34%46%30%39%40%8%30%27%21%37%69%12%30%79%28%65%29%4%23%35%39%40%35%39%19%
Undecided9%10%9%12%8%11%5%10%9%9%6%10%12%17%7%8%4%17%9%9%10%11%3%10%12%7%11%8%14%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Adults100%49%51%35%31%20%15%66%34%51%6%28%15%25%75%26%38%35%8%88%26%48%21%33%32%35%19%41%18%21%