Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19274
 
In Newly Drawn WA01, Koster & Burner Likely to Advance from Primary to General, Where Republican May Have Slight Early Advantage:

7 weeks until voting begins in the Washington state primary, Republican John Koster and Democrat Darcy Burner are likely to finish #1 and #2 and advance to a November general election in Washington's 1st Congressional District, according to a KING5-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. 5 Democrats are on the primary ballot, and not surprisingly, the 5 Democrats split the primary vote against Koster, the lone Republican. The U.S. House seat is vacant; Democrat Jay Inslee has resigned to run for Governor of Washington. The district has also been re-drawn following the 2010 U.S. Census.

If the 08/07/12 primary voting were today, Koster gets 46%, in large part because 85% of the Republicans in the district vote for him. Burner gets 19% today, and is the only 1 of 5 Democrats to get more than 6%. Just 45% of Democrats vote for Burner in the primary; the rest vote for someone else. Voters are overwhelmingly focused on the economy, ahead of health care, education and social issues. Voters say that a candidate from a rural part of the district may do a better job of representing voters than a candidate from an urban part of the district.

Looking ahead to November:
* Koster leads Burner by 9 points, 48% to 39%. Koster has an edge among Independents; Burner leads among moderates.
* Koster leads Steve Hobbs by 16 points, 47% to 31%.
* Koster leads Suzan DelBene by 17 points, 49% to 32%.
* Koster leads Laura Ruderman by 17 points, 49% to 32%.
* Koster leads Darshan Rauniyar by 22 points, 50% to 28%.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. 716 Washington adults who live in the 1st Congressional District were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/29/12 and 05/30/12. Of the adults, 661 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 456 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in an 08/07/12 primary. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were contacted on their cell phone, by live operators, who hand-dialed the telephone, screened the respondent for eligibility, asked the questions, and then remained on the line throughout the interview. In this survey, as in other SurveyUSA research, cell-phone respondents vote differently as do home-phone respondents. In the head-to-head November match-up between Burner and Koster, Burner leads among cell-phone respondents; Koster leads among home-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, the Republican is ahead. In a contest for President of the United States, Barack Obama leads among cell-phone respondents; Mitt Romney leads among home-phone respondents. When the two groups are proportionally blended, the Obama-Romney contest, in Washington's 1st Congressional District, is effectively even: Romney 45%, Obama 44%.

 
If the primary election in Washington's 1st congressional district were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? John Koster, who prefers the Republican party? Darcy Burner, who prefers the Democratic party? Darshan Rauniyar , who prefers the Democratic party? Laura Ruderman, who prefers the Democratic party? Suzan DelBene , who prefers the Democratic party? Steve Hobbs, who prefers the Democratic party? Or Larry Ishmael, who prefers the Independent party?
456 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Koster (R)46%48%44%54%51%39%50%52%43%45%****41%30%48%85%5%47%83%42%80%35%4%76%23%54%50%39%43%50%41%
Darcy Burner (D)19%21%18%10%17%20%22%16%21%20%****16%6%21%1%45%14%3%21%3%23%44%2%33%19%14%24%20%16%25%
Darshan Rauniyar (D)1%2%1%3%0%2%0%1%2%1%****0%2%1%1%1%2%0%2%1%2%2%0%2%2%2%1%0%2%1%
Laura Ruderman (D)6%6%5%0%5%7%5%4%7%6%****6%2%6%1%13%4%0%6%3%3%15%2%9%4%5%7%5%6%6%
Suzan DelBene (D)4%4%5%0%2%5%6%2%5%4%****13%0%5%1%11%1%0%5%1%5%10%2%6%7%3%4%4%6%4%
Steve Hobbs (D)4%3%4%0%3%5%4%3%4%4%****0%0%4%1%7%4%0%4%1%5%5%2%5%3%5%3%5%3%3%
Larry Ishmael4%4%4%5%4%5%1%4%4%4%****4%3%4%3%2%7%5%3%3%6%2%4%4%3%2%6%5%1%6%
Undecided16%13%19%27%18%16%12%20%14%16%****20%56%11%8%16%21%9%17%9%20%17%11%18%7%19%17%18%15%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%7%24%42%26%32%68%88%2%4%6%12%88%33%32%32%8%90%39%35%21%42%54%13%38%49%18%35%47%
 
 
Have you personally met ...
456 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
None78%80%77%83%82%74%80%82%76%77%****76%85%77%73%79%83%64%79%72%82%83%74%81%84%77%78%83%77%77%
One14%14%15%7%14%16%13%12%15%15%****15%7%15%20%15%8%35%13%20%12%10%19%11%7%16%15%5%17%16%
More Than One5%4%6%5%4%7%3%4%5%5%****9%3%5%4%4%7%1%5%4%5%6%4%6%4%3%7%6%4%6%
Not Sure2%3%2%5%0%3%3%1%3%3%****0%5%2%3%2%2%0%3%4%0%2%2%3%5%4%1%6%3%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%7%24%42%26%32%68%88%2%4%6%12%88%33%32%32%8%90%39%35%21%42%54%13%38%49%18%35%47%
 
 
When deciding who to elect to Congress, which of these issues is most important to you? Economic issues, such as jobs, taxes, and the federal budget? Social issues, such as abortion and gay marriage? Health care? Education? The environment? Foreign affairs? Or something else?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.8%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Economic Issues57%64%52%51%61%53%64%58%57%55%****59%52%59%68%44%60%77%56%67%58%39%63%53%61%61%52%58%57%57%
Social Issues16%11%21%18%17%16%14%17%15%17%****11%12%17%21%16%12%14%16%20%13%16%22%13%12%16%17%15%17%16%
Health Care11%9%13%8%9%14%11%8%13%11%****19%12%11%4%18%12%2%12%5%10%21%6%14%17%8%12%15%14%8%
Education7%5%8%8%10%6%4%9%5%8%****1%6%7%3%9%6%0%7%2%10%11%3%9%3%6%9%4%6%9%
The Environment3%3%2%5%1%3%2%2%3%3%****2%2%3%0%5%3%0%3%0%3%6%1%4%1%2%4%3%1%3%
Foreign Affairs1%1%1%0%0%1%1%0%1%1%****0%1%1%0%1%1%2%1%0%1%2%0%1%0%1%1%1%0%1%
Something Else4%6%2%6%2%5%3%3%4%4%****7%10%3%2%5%5%2%4%3%5%4%3%5%2%6%3%4%4%5%
Not Sure1%2%1%4%1%1%1%2%1%1%****1%5%1%1%2%1%3%1%2%1%1%2%1%4%1%1%1%1%1%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
Thinking ahead now to the November general election for Congress in Washington's 1st Congressional District ... if the only two candidates on the ballot were John Koster, who prefers the Republican party, and Darcy Burner, who prefers the Democratic party, who would you vote for?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Koster (R)48%52%44%47%46%47%52%46%49%49%****31%28%53%91%6%46%99%44%85%38%5%78%28%48%54%41%45%51%45%
Darcy Burner (D)39%38%40%28%33%45%40%32%43%39%****49%35%40%2%89%31%0%42%6%46%86%12%59%39%33%45%42%40%39%
Undecided13%11%16%25%21%8%8%22%8%12%****19%37%7%7%4%23%1%14%8%16%8%10%13%13%13%14%13%10%15%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
What if it were John Koster and Suzan DelBene, who prefers the Democratic party?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Koster (R)49%51%46%46%49%45%55%48%49%49%****34%27%54%90%11%46%95%45%85%38%9%79%29%47%54%43%41%51%48%
Suzan DelBene (D)32%34%31%19%27%39%33%24%37%33%****43%21%35%2%76%23%0%35%4%40%74%8%50%33%28%37%35%33%32%
Undecided19%15%23%35%24%15%12%28%14%18%****23%52%12%8%14%31%5%20%11%23%17%13%21%20%18%20%23%15%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
What if it were John Koster and Laura Ruderman, who prefers the Democratic party?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Koster (R)49%51%46%47%48%46%55%48%49%49%****34%27%54%89%10%48%95%45%85%39%7%80%28%50%53%43%42%53%47%
Laura Ruderman (D)32%34%31%15%29%38%34%25%37%33%****43%23%34%2%75%24%0%35%5%36%75%8%51%29%28%37%37%32%32%
Undecided19%15%23%38%23%16%11%28%14%18%****24%50%12%9%15%28%5%20%10%25%18%12%21%22%19%19%21%16%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
What if it were John Koster and Steve Hobbs, who prefers the Democratic party?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Koster (R)47%51%44%46%45%46%54%45%49%48%****35%27%52%91%8%44%95%44%85%38%7%78%28%51%53%40%43%52%45%
Steve Hobbs (D)31%32%31%20%29%35%34%26%35%32%****33%26%33%1%74%25%0%34%4%35%76%9%49%26%28%37%34%31%32%
Undecided21%17%25%34%26%19%12%29%16%20%****31%46%15%9%18%31%5%22%11%27%18%13%23%24%19%23%24%17%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
What if it were John Koster and Darshan Rauniyar, who prefers the Democratic party?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Koster (R)50%53%47%48%49%47%57%49%51%50%****38%30%55%91%10%49%95%47%87%41%7%81%30%51%55%44%45%52%49%
Darshan Rauniyar (D)28%29%28%17%25%34%28%22%32%29%****34%24%29%1%69%20%0%31%2%30%73%6%45%25%25%33%29%30%28%
Undecided22%18%26%35%26%19%15%29%18%21%****28%46%16%8%21%31%5%23%11%28%21%13%25%24%21%23%26%18%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
Who do you think is more likely to do a good job representing the 1st Congressional District? A Republican candidate? Or A Democratic candidate?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Republican Candidate50%52%47%53%50%46%54%51%49%50%****38%39%52%95%7%46%100%46%89%39%6%80%29%52%56%43%40%51%51%
Democratic Candidate39%40%38%30%31%47%40%31%44%39%****52%35%40%1%90%32%0%43%5%48%87%10%61%37%37%43%47%39%38%
Not Sure11%7%14%17%19%7%6%18%7%10%****10%26%7%3%3%22%0%11%7%14%7%10%9%11%7%14%13%10%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
Who do you think is more likely to identify with your concerns? A candidate who lives in a rural part of the district? Or A candidate who lives in an urban part of the district?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Lives In a Rural Part45%47%43%43%47%45%46%45%45%45%****32%39%47%52%35%48%62%44%57%40%33%55%38%55%49%39%43%53%42%
Lives In An Urban Part37%37%36%39%36%37%35%37%36%37%****43%36%37%29%48%34%10%38%24%43%50%25%46%28%31%44%38%32%40%
Not Sure18%15%21%18%18%18%19%18%19%18%****25%25%17%18%17%18%28%17%19%18%16%20%16%17%20%17%20%16%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... Barack Obama? Or Mitt Romney?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Obama44%45%43%36%38%51%43%37%48%43%****59%43%44%6%87%42%0%48%9%55%88%13%66%39%41%49%50%43%45%
Romney45%47%44%55%38%44%52%43%47%46%****39%37%47%86%8%42%97%42%82%33%6%77%24%52%46%42%36%49%44%
Other6%4%7%4%15%2%3%12%2%6%****0%11%5%4%3%10%0%6%6%7%2%7%5%5%7%5%11%3%7%
Undecided5%4%6%6%9%4%2%8%3%4%****3%9%4%4%2%6%3%5%3%5%4%3%5%4%6%4%4%5%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
Washington will elect a Governor in November. If the election were today, would you vote for Rob McKenna, who prefers the Republican party? Or Jay Inslee, who prefers the Democratic party?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
McKenna (R)52%54%49%53%52%48%56%53%51%53%****40%40%54%93%13%50%99%48%90%43%7%81%32%56%55%46%46%54%50%
Inslee (D)38%37%39%31%35%43%37%34%41%38%****48%39%38%2%82%34%0%42%6%45%83%13%57%34%36%43%38%40%39%
Undecided10%9%11%16%13%9%7%14%8%9%****12%21%8%5%5%17%1%11%4%12%10%6%11%11%9%11%15%6%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
13The state legislature has passed a bill to allow same-sex couples to marry, while allowing clergy and religious organizations to refuse to perform, recognize or accommodate any marriage ceremony. The issue may appear on the ballot in November as Measure 74, asking voters to approve or reject the bill. If Measure 74 is on the ballot, will you vote to approve the bill? Vote to reject the bill? Or are you not yet sure how you will vote?
661 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationTea Party MemberIdeologyAbortionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalPro-lifePro-choiHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Vote To Approve40%39%41%44%46%37%35%45%36%40%****40%46%38%25%56%38%19%42%22%43%62%19%53%33%35%46%41%40%40%
Vote To Reject37%37%37%38%29%39%43%32%40%37%****33%25%40%55%20%37%66%35%59%30%17%62%22%42%39%34%39%39%36%
Not Sure23%24%22%18%25%25%22%22%24%23%****27%28%22%21%24%26%15%23%19%27%21%20%25%25%25%20%20%21%24%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%12%26%40%22%38%62%87%2%4%6%19%81%32%30%33%6%91%36%37%20%39%56%14%39%47%20%35%46%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.