Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10405
 
Democrat McCaskill Pulls Ahead of Talent in MO, U.S. Senate Seat May 'Flip': In an election for United States Senator from Missouri today, 10/12/06, Democratic challenger Claire McCaskill leads Republican incumbent Jim Talent 51% to 42%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll 4 weeks ago, on 9/14/06, McCaskill has gained 3 points and Talent has lost 5 points. McCaskill's advantage has grown from 1 point to 9 points. The election is in 26 days, on 11/7/06. Most of the movement in the race comes from Independent voters, who supported Talent by 12 points in September but now support McCaskill by 13 points, a 25-point swing. 91% of Democrats vote Democrat. 87% of Republicans vote Republican. McCaskill has made big gains among male voters: Talent leads by 1 point among men, a 14-point drop from September. McCaskill leads by 18 points among women, a 2-point gain. McCaskill leads by 50 points among black voters, by 4 among white voters. 69% of those who support Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, vote for McCaskill. 82% of those who oppose Amendment 2 vote for Talent. Talent leads in the Ozarks. McCaskill leads in the rest of MO. In Central MO, McCaskill has gone from 12 points behind to 16 points ahead, a 28-point swing. Talent defeated Democrat Jean Carnahan by 1 point in 2002, 2 years after she had been named to fill the U.S. Senate seat of her posthumously elected husband Mel Carnahan. McCaskill, who has been Missouri State Auditor since 1998, ran for Missouri Governor in 2004 and lost to Republican Matt Blunt by 3 points. The U.S. Senate seat is one of the, if not perhaps the most, contested in the nation. A Democrat win may not guarantee the Democrats control of the U.S. Senate, but a Republican win would almost certainly ensure that the Democrats have no chance to capture the Senate in 2006.
 
Broad Support for Stem Cell Initiative: In an election today, 10/12/06, Missouri voters approve Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative, by 57% to 27%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KSDK-TV St. Louis and KCTV-TV Kansas City. In the last 4 weeks, "Yes" has gained 5 points and "No" has gained 3 points. As voters have learned more about the measure, the number not certain how they will vote has dropped 8 points, to 16% of the likely voters. Of those voters who are certain how they will vote, Democrats support the amendment 10:1. Republicans oppose it 3:2. SurveyUSA did not read the entire text of the Amendment to respondents. The exact language SurveyUSA read to respondents appears in the table below.
 
Filtering: 900 Missouri adults were interviewed 10/9/06 - 10/11/06. Of them, 796 were registered to vote. Of them, 497 were judged to be "likely voters." Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters.
 
Timeline:
10/08/06: Talent and McCaskill appear jointly on "Meet The Press". SurveyUSA releases a "Who Won the Debate" poll, conducted of debate watchers statewide.
10/09/06 - 10/11/06: Interviewing for this poll conducted. All interviews completed before 10/11/06 debate, which began at 8pm local time.
10/11/06: Talent and McCaskill debate "live" on St. Louis television. SurveyUSA releases a "Who Won the Debate" poll, conducted of debate watchers from the MO portion of the St. Louis TV Viewing area.
 
If the election for United States Senator were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Republican Jim Talent? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Libertarian Frank Gilmour? Or some other candidate?
497 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyVote On Amendment 2EducationIncomeBush Job ApprovalRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoUndecideNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNot SureOzarkKansas CCentral St. LouiUrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
Talent (R)42%47%38%34%50%46%33%45%22%87%6%39%79%31%15%25%82%37%39%42%46%42%30%47%46%87%11%**48%41%38%42%31%41%56%41%43%49%44%33%
McCaskill (D)51%46%56%53%45%48%61%49%72%5%91%52%13%64%81%69%14%50%57%51%50%48%62%47%51%7%82%**42%52%54%53%61%52%39%54%46%46%51%61%
Gilmour (L)3%4%1%8%2%1%1%3%3%4%0%4%5%2%0%2%2%5%2%3%3%2%3%3%0%2%3%**5%3%2%1%2%3%2%0%7%2%1%1%
Other/Undecided4%3%5%5%3%5%5%4%3%4%3%5%3%3%3%4%3%8%3%5%1%8%5%3%3%3%4%**5%4%6%3%5%4%3%4%4%3%5%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%32%30%21%86%10%32%37%26%30%42%15%57%27%16%18%37%22%23%30%40%23%39%57%5%20%22%14%44%23%53%24%8%22%26%23%21%
 
 
Also on the ballot is Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell Initiative. In an election today, are you certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or, are you not certain how you will vote on Constitutional Amendment 2, the Stem Cell initiative?
497 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyIdeologyVote On Amendment 2EducationIncomeBush Job ApprovalRegionGeocodingGeneration *
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoUndecideNo ColleSome ColCollege Grad Sch< $40K$40K - $> $80KApproveDisapproNot SureOzarkKansas CCentral St. LouiUrbanSuburbanRuralGen YGen XJonesBoomersMature
'Certain' Yes57%61%53%62%53%57%58%56%61%33%75%59%30%64%86%100%0%0%53%53%61%61%59%53%64%33%75%**43%59%58%61%63%60%44%68%57%54%54%58%
'Certain' No27%28%27%21%31%30%23%29%12%51%7%26%56%20%7%0%100%0%24%27%28%31%26%30%29%51%11%**38%25%26%24%22%26%36%19%25%31%33%23%
Not Certain16%12%20%16%16%13%19%15%28%15%17%15%15%16%7%0%0%100%23%20%12%8%15%18%8%16%15%**19%16%16%15%16%14%20%13%18%15%13%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%50%50%17%32%30%21%86%10%32%37%26%30%42%15%57%27%16%18%37%22%23%30%40%23%39%57%5%20%22%14%44%23%53%24%8%22%26%23%21%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.