Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #10072 |
GOP Allen's Once Large Lead Evaporates: In an election for the United State Senate in Virginia today, 8/21/06, incumbent Republican George Allen edges Democrat challenger James Webb 48% to 45%, according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WUSA-TV Washington DC and WDBJ-TV Roanoke. Since an identical SurveyUSA poll released 6/28/06, Allen has lost 8 points and Webb has gained 8 points. Allen's lead has shrunk from 19 points to 3 points. Interviewing for this poll began 8/18/06, 1 week after Allen singled out a Webb campaign worker at an Allen rally. Allen has lost support across all demographic groups, but in particular, among younger voters, he has gone from Plus 23 to Minus 17, a swing of 40 points. In Southeastern VA, Allen has gone from a 2:1 lead to a tie, a 31-point swing. Those who support Ballot Question 1, defining marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, vote for Allen by 39 points. Those who oppose Question 1 vote for Webb by 64 points. The election is in 11 weeks, on 11/7/06. The Republicans have a 10-seat majority in the U.S. Senate. Allen's seat had been considered safely Republican, and Allen himself had been widely considered to be a Republican candidate for President of the United States in 2008. |
Marriage Amendment Passes 2:1. In an election in Virginia today, 8/21/06, Question 1, which amends the Virginia Bill of Rights to define marriage in Virginia as between one man and one woman, passes with 65% "Yes" to 34% "No", according to an exclusive SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV Roanoke and WUSA-TV Washington DC. Republicans support the Amendment 8:1. Democrats oppose the Amendment 5:4. Independents support it 3:2. 92% of Conservatives vote "Yes." 29% of Liberals vote "Yes." Those who approve of President Bush's job performance support the Amendment 9:1. Those who disapprove of Bush oppose the Amendment. The Amendment is supported by 89% of Allen voters but by only 39% of Webb voters. |
Filtering: 1,200 Virginia adults were interviewed 8/18/06 - 8/20/06. Of them, 1,002 were registered to vote. Of them, 576 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect Likely Voters. |
576 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Education | Income | Bush Job Approva | Region | Geocoding | Vote For VA Sena | Ballot Question | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4.2 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Approve | Disappro | Shenando | Northeas | Southeas | Central | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Allen (R | Webb (D) | Yes | No | |
Allen (R) | 48% | 52% | 43% | 36% | 55% | 47% | 47% | 55% | 20% | ** | ** | 90% | 6% | 42% | 85% | 32% | 12% | 63% | 47% | 51% | 40% | 48% | 46% | 50% | 91% | 15% | 54% | 39% | 45% | 53% | 33% | 51% | 54% | 100% | 0% | 65% | 15% |
Webb (D) | 45% | 41% | 48% | 53% | 38% | 47% | 45% | 38% | 62% | ** | ** | 6% | 85% | 44% | 9% | 60% | 79% | 28% | 44% | 42% | 53% | 39% | 46% | 47% | 4% | 76% | 40% | 53% | 45% | 39% | 56% | 42% | 37% | 0% | 100% | 26% | 79% |
Parker (IG) | 2% | 3% | 2% | 4% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 2% | 5% | ** | ** | 1% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 2% | 3% | 5% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 4% | 2% | 4% | 1% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 2% |
Undecided | 5% | 4% | 6% | 7% | 5% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 11% | ** | ** | 2% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 5% | 6% | 6% | 7% | 4% | 4% | 8% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 6% | 4% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% | 6% | 4% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 32% | 31% | 18% | 76% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 39% | 37% | 22% | 35% | 42% | 15% | 10% | 33% | 25% | 32% | 19% | 37% | 39% | 40% | 55% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 62% | 15% | 48% | 45% | 65% | 34% |
576 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | Race | Party | Ideology | Education | Income | Bush Job Approva | Region | Geocoding | Vote For VA Sena | Ballot Question | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct points | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | No Colle | Some Col | College | Grad Sch | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Approve | Disappro | Shenando | Northeas | Southeas | Central | Urban | Suburban | Rural | Allen (R | Webb (D) | Yes | No | |
Yes | 65% | 66% | 65% | 56% | 67% | 63% | 75% | 66% | 65% | ** | ** | 89% | 44% | 60% | 92% | 54% | 29% | 88% | 66% | 66% | 56% | 78% | 63% | 59% | 90% | 47% | 71% | 55% | 67% | 69% | 53% | 66% | 79% | 89% | 39% | 100% | 0% |
No | 34% | 34% | 35% | 44% | 33% | 37% | 23% | 33% | 34% | ** | ** | 11% | 55% | 40% | 8% | 45% | 71% | 11% | 33% | 34% | 43% | 20% | 36% | 41% | 10% | 52% | 29% | 44% | 33% | 30% | 47% | 33% | 20% | 11% | 61% | 0% | 100% |
Undecided | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | ** | ** | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 49% | 51% | 19% | 32% | 31% | 18% | 76% | 15% | 4% | 5% | 39% | 37% | 22% | 35% | 42% | 15% | 10% | 33% | 25% | 32% | 19% | 37% | 39% | 40% | 55% | 27% | 29% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 62% | 15% | 48% | 45% | 65% | 34% |