Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #24340
 
In California's 16th Congressional District, 20 Days Till Voting Begins, Incumbent Democrat
Costa Positioned to Keep Seat for 8th Term, Fending Off Challenge from Republican Heng:


Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa today appears to have built a sufficiently broad coalition to allow him to hold onto his seat in the U.S. House of Representatives for an 8th term, according to SurveyUSA polling conducted for KFSN-TV in Fresno. Costa is atop Republican challenger Elizabeth Heng 51% to 40%, 7 weeks till votes are counted.

Heng has a 7-point advantage among CA-16's white voters, who are 47% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's modeling, but Costa leads by more than 10 points among women, voters age 18 to 49, seniors, independents, high-school educated voters, lower-income voters and voters in urban portions of the district.

Costa leads by nearly 2:1 among Latinos, who are 44% of the electorate in SurveyUSA's modeling, and by more than 2:1 among moderates.

The contest is fiercely fought in the suburban portion of the district, where Costa leads by 5 points, in the rural portions of the district, where Costa leads by 4 points, among middle-income voters, where Costa leads by 5 points, and among affluent voters, where Costa leads by a nominal 2 points.

Heng holds 80% of the Republican base; Costa holds 81% of the Democratic base. Conservatives break 4:1 for the Republican. Liberals break 7:1 for the Democrat. President Donald Trump's approval rating in the district is 39%. Of those who approve of the job Trump is doing, 81% vote Republican. Of those who disapprove of the job Trump is doing, 80% vote Democratic.

Voters who say that immigration is the most important issue in how they will vote in 2018 back Heng by 14 points. Voters who say the economy is the most important issue in 2018 back Costa by 5 points --- unusual in that voters focused on the economy often favor a Republican.

About: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,090 adults from CA-16 09/14/18 through 09/19/18. Of the adults, 928 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 515 were likely to vote on or before Election Day, 11/06/18. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (44% of adults, 66% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (56% of adults, 34% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In California's "open" Top 2 primary on 06/05/18, Costa defeated Heng by 6 points, 53% to 47%. CA-16 extends Northwest from the city of Fresno through Madera, Chowchilla, Merced and Livingston CA. Costa was first elected to Congress in 2004. In 2016, he defeated Republican challenger Johnny Tacherra by 16 points, though in 2014, Costa defeated Tacherra by just 2 points. Should white voters turn-out in 2018 in larger numbers than here modeled and should Latino voters turn-out in smaller numbers than here modeled, the outcome in 2018 will resemble 2014 more than 2016.
 
1If the election for US House of Representatives were today, and you were filling out your ballot right now, who would you vote for? Republican Elizabeth Heng? Or Democrat Jim Costa?
515 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueTrump ApprovalEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmAgricultApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Elizabeth Heng (R)40%42%38%33%38%44%41%36%42%49%**31%41%80%13%30%76%28%11%54%42%48%25%4%55%81%13%30%41%45%28%44%46%35%43%42%29%46%
Jim Costa (D)51%50%51%57%51%45%54%54%49%42%**59%45%16%81%43%19%64%81%40%47%46%65%92%42%14%80%59%47%50%58%49%48%57%48%46%57%47%
Undecided9%8%10%10%11%11%6%11%8%9%**10%13%5%6%27%5%8%7%6%11%6%10%5%3%5%8%11%12%6%14%7%6%8%8%11%14%7%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%16%18%33%32%34%66%47%3%44%6%37%47%15%33%39%21%27%26%8%10%6%6%39%55%18%41%41%31%40%29%38%37%22%34%66%
 
2Which one issue will be most important in determining how you vote in this election? Immigration? The economy? Terrorism? National security? Education? The environment? Agriculture? Or some other issue?
515 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueTrump ApprovalEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmAgricultApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Immigration27%28%25%17%18%31%32%17%32%24%**29%36%41%21%11%41%22%20%100%0%0%0%0%0%39%21%32%30%21%33%23%26%30%28%20%23%29%
Economy26%26%26%37%23%26%22%29%24%25%**28%15%24%27%28%24%28%27%0%100%0%0%0%0%23%26%27%27%25%26%30%22%24%30%24%34%22%
Terrorism2%2%2%2%5%0%2%4%1%3%**1%0%4%1%0%4%2%2%0%0%0%0%0%0%4%1%3%2%2%2%4%0%3%1%3%3%2%
National Security8%8%9%6%11%5%11%9%8%9%**9%4%10%9%4%11%8%8%0%0%100%0%0%0%11%7%3%10%9%9%7%10%9%5%13%7%9%
Education10%9%10%20%16%6%5%18%6%10%**9%21%5%13%7%6%10%11%0%0%0%100%0%0%5%13%6%8%13%7%11%10%8%10%12%15%7%
Environment6%7%6%1%7%6%9%4%7%8%**4%7%2%8%12%3%7%12%0%0%0%0%100%0%2%10%5%6%8%5%8%7%7%7%5%3%8%
Agriculture6%7%6%9%2%9%6%5%7%9%**5%0%9%3%13%6%9%3%0%0%0%0%0%100%9%5%3%5%9%4%7%9%5%5%12%3%8%
Other9%10%8%4%12%12%7%8%9%8%**9%8%4%11%15%4%9%15%0%0%0%0%0%0%6%12%11%4%12%7%7%12%9%9%8%9%9%
Not Sure5%2%8%4%5%5%6%5%5%4%**6%7%2%7%9%2%6%1%0%0%0%0%0%0%2%5%10%7%2%7%3%3%4%5%2%3%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%16%18%33%32%34%66%47%3%44%6%37%47%15%33%39%21%27%26%8%10%6%6%39%55%18%41%41%31%40%29%38%37%22%34%66%
 
3Do you approve? Or disapprove? Of the job Donald Trump is doing as President?
515 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyIssueTrump ApprovalEducationIncomeUrbanicityCell Phone / Lan
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalImmigratEconomyNationalEducatioEnvironmAgricultApproveDisapproHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralCell PhoLandline
Approve39%46%33%26%35%44%43%31%43%49%**29%44%83%8%35%83%23%6%57%35%54%19%11%53%100%0%29%42%41%27%43%45%38%40%38%30%44%
Disapprove55%50%59%61%61%48%55%61%51%44%**67%40%14%89%46%14%71%88%42%55%45%70%88%42%0%100%66%49%55%66%52%51%58%53%55%59%52%
Not Sure6%3%9%13%3%8%2%8%5%7%**4%16%3%4%20%4%6%6%1%10%1%11%1%5%0%0%5%9%4%7%6%4%4%6%7%10%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%16%18%33%32%34%66%47%3%44%6%37%47%15%33%39%21%27%26%8%10%6%6%39%55%18%41%41%31%40%29%38%37%22%34%66%
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.