Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20099

In Missouri, 2 Days Till Votes Are Counted, McCaskill Poised to Defeat Akin, Hold U.S. Senate Seat for Democrats:

In an election for United States Senator from Missouri, incumbent Democrat Claire McCaskill leads at the wire, having assembled a coalition that should allow her to defeat Republican challenger Todd Akin, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSDK-TV in St Louis, KSHB-TV in Kansas City, and KSPR-TV and KYTV-TV in Springfield. The contest has national significance. McCaskill gets 51% to 36% for Akin, with Libertarian Jonathan Dine far back at 8%. If Dine's support should collapse on Election Day, those votes almost certainly will go to Akin and will reduce the McCaskill margin of victory shown here.

Akin holds just 66% of the Republican base, compared to McCaskill, who holds 93% of the Democratic base. McCaskill leads among Independents by 24 points, and leads among moderates by 48 points. Of those voting for Barack Obama for President, 97% are also voting for the Democrat McCaskill. But of those voting for Mitt Romney for President, just 70% are also voting for Republican Akin.

In the election for Governor of Missouri, incumbent Democrat Jay Nixon defeats Republican challenger Dave Spence 48% to 39%. White voters split, 44% to 44%. Nixon's entire margin of victory comes from African American voters, who break 11:1 for Nixon.

Mitt Romney carries Missouri 50% to 43%, defeating Barack Obama by 7 points, and keeping Missouri's 10 electoral votes Republican red. Romney leads by 38 points among evangelical voters, and by 50 points among pro-life voters. Obama carries greater St. Louis and effectively ties Romney in greater Kansas City. But Romney has overpowering strength in Southwestern MO and in Northern MO.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 adults from the state of Missouri 10/28/12 through 11/03/12. Of the adults, 643 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 589 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 general election. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (72% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (28% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, laptop or other electronic device.

1	If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?

589 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Evangelical		Abortion		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney (	Obama (D	Spence (	Nixon (D	Akin (R)	McCaskil	Yes	No	Pro-life	Pro-choi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Northern	Kansas C	Southwes	St. Loui	Southeas
Mitt Romney (R)	294	133	160	61	75	82	76	136	158	274	6	63	231	199	15	75	48	233	186	84	14	294	0	222	49	204	39	163	112	194	81	73	93	122	92	119	67	57	56	62	96	23
Barack Obama (D)	254	128	126	71	65	76	42	135	118	183	54	84	169	12	164	74	4	243	35	134	69	0	254	4	221	1	247	70	160	61	179	47	99	100	106	87	51	27	55	41	110	21
Other	23	11	13	8	8	4	3	16	7	20	0	9	15	8	1	14	2	20	11	8	3	0	0	6	6	6	9	8	13	12	10	10	2	10	10	9	3	5	3	4	6	5
Undecided	18	8	9	3	5	8	2	8	10	14	1	11	7	6	4	8	0	18	1	14	3	0	0	0	4	0	7	5	6	4	7	7	6	5	11	5	1	2	5	2	7	2
Total	589	280	308	142	152	171	123	295	294	491	61	167	422	225	184	171	53	514	232	239	90	294	254	232	280	211	302	247	291	270	277	137	200	237	218	220	123	90	119	109	219	51
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	24%	26%	29%	21%	50%	50%	83%	10%	28%	72%	38%	31%	29%	9%	88%	40%	41%	15%	50%	43%	39%	48%	36%	51%	42%	50%	47%	48%	24%	35%	41%	39%	39%	22%	15%	20%	18%	37%	9%

2	Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or, with reservations?

571 Who Are Not Undecided	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Evangelical		Abortion		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney (	Obama (D	Spence (	Nixon (D	Akin (R)	McCaskil	Yes	No	Pro-life	Pro-choi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Northern	Kansas C	Southwes	St. Loui	Southeas
Enthusiastically	424	193	231	85	100	135	104	185	239	346	50	87	336	162	151	105	49	359	192	148	64	219	194	183	211	172	212	186	208	203	201	93	144	177	143	166	96	57	91	77	165	35
With Reservations	140	77	63	53	44	27	16	97	43	125	9	66	73	52	27	57	4	131	39	72	22	71	59	48	62	38	79	55	72	62	66	35	49	52	60	49	26	28	22	28	47	13
Not Sure	7	2	5	2	4	1	1	5	2	6	1	2	5	5	1	1	0	7	0	6	0	4	1	1	3	1	3	1	5	2	3	2	2	3	5	1	0	4	1	2	0	1
Total	571	272	299	139	147	163	121	287	284	477	60	156	415	219	179	163	53	497	232	226	86	294	254	232	276	211	295	241	285	266	270	130	194	232	207	215	122	88	114	107	212	49
Composition of Who Are Not Undecided	100%	48%	52%	24%	26%	29%	21%	50%	50%	84%	10%	27%	73%	39%	32%	29%	9%	87%	41%	40%	15%	51%	44%	41%	48%	37%	52%	43%	51%	48%	48%	23%	35%	42%	38%	40%	22%	15%	20%	19%	37%	9%

3	Missouri will also elect a Governor. If the election for Governor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Dave Spence? Democrat Jay Nixon? Or Libertarian Jim Higgins?

589 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Evangelical		Abortion		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney (	Obama (D	Spence (	Nixon (D	Akin (R)	McCaskil	Yes	No	Pro-life	Pro-choi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Northern	Kansas C	Southwes	St. Loui	Southeas
Dave Spence (R)	232	98	134	45	59	71	56	105	128	216	4	44	188	165	10	55	41	183	161	52	13	222	4	232	0	184	21	131	88	162	58	56	67	105	74	96	51	46	44	48	76	17
Jay Nixon (D)	280	142	138	62	72	88	58	134	146	214	48	81	199	38	158	81	9	262	50	147	65	49	221	0	280	22	242	89	164	74	188	57	103	110	103	100	61	30	62	46	117	26
Jim Higgins (L)	28	20	7	13	9	3	3	22	6	18	7	13	15	7	5	16	1	25	7	13	8	8	12	0	0	2	17	7	21	9	17	7	12	8	14	8	6	6	4	5	12	1
Undecided	49	20	29	22	12	9	5	34	15	43	2	29	20	16	11	19	3	44	14	27	4	15	17	0	0	4	22	20	18	25	14	16	18	13	27	15	5	9	9	10	14	6
Total	589	280	308	142	152	171	123	295	294	491	61	167	422	225	184	171	53	514	232	239	90	294	254	232	280	211	302	247	291	270	277	137	200	237	218	220	123	90	119	109	219	51
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	24%	26%	29%	21%	50%	50%	83%	10%	28%	72%	38%	31%	29%	9%	88%	40%	41%	15%	50%	43%	39%	48%	36%	51%	42%	50%	47%	48%	24%	35%	41%	39%	39%	22%	15%	20%	18%	37%	9%

4	Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

540 Who Are Not Undecided	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Evangelical		Abortion		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney (	Obama (D	Spence (	Nixon (D	Akin (R)	McCaskil	Yes	No	Pro-life	Pro-choi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Northern	Kansas C	Southwes	St. Loui	Southeas
Enthusiastically	388	186	202	75	98	122	92	174	215	313	49	86	302	146	143	95	40	337	161	145	64	191	184	165	207	147	207	163	195	179	186	88	141	149	133	147	88	49	84	71	156	29
With Reservations	134	70	63	38	36	37	23	74	60	119	8	41	93	53	27	52	11	120	50	61	18	79	45	59	64	51	65	57	69	58	70	30	38	63	49	53	27	31	21	25	41	16
Not Sure	17	3	14	7	6	3	2	13	5	16	1	10	7	10	3	4	0	14	6	6	4	9	7	8	9	9	8	7	9	9	6	2	3	12	9	5	3	2	5	3	8	0
Total	540	260	279	120	140	161	118	260	279	448	59	138	402	209	173	152	51	471	218	212	86	279	236	232	280	207	280	227	273	245	263	121	182	224	191	205	118	82	110	99	205	45
Composition of Who Are Not Undecided	100%	48%	52%	22%	26%	30%	22%	48%	52%	83%	11%	26%	74%	39%	32%	28%	9%	87%	41%	40%	16%	52%	44%	43%	52%	38%	52%	42%	51%	46%	50%	23%	35%	42%	37%	40%	23%	15%	20%	18%	38%	8%

5	Missouri will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for US Senate were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Todd Akin? Democrat Claire McCaskill? Or Libertarian Jonathan Dine?

589 Likely Voters	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Evangelical		Abortion		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 4.1 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney (	Obama (D	Spence (	Nixon (D	Akin (R)	McCaskil	Yes	No	Pro-life	Pro-choi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Northern	Kansas C	Southwes	St. Loui	Southeas
Todd Akin (R)	211	97	114	38	55	66	53	92	119	195	4	40	171	149	7	54	40	162	155	45	7	204	1	184	22	211	0	129	70	157	42	55	57	98	63	93	46	41	40	43	71	17
Claire McCaskill (D)	302	151	151	79	81	89	53	160	142	229	54	102	199	34	171	93	9	283	46	160	77	39	247	21	242	0	302	96	179	81	200	62	115	115	128	101	59	37	65	53	121	26
Jonathan Dine (L)	44	21	23	14	10	10	10	25	20	39	2	8	36	27	4	11	5	39	20	18	4	35	1	21	9	0	0	13	29	22	21	8	17	17	13	16	12	10	7	6	18	3
Undecided	31	10	21	11	7	7	7	17	14	27	2	16	15	15	2	13	0	30	10	17	1	16	4	7	7	0	0	9	13	10	13	12	12	6	14	10	6	3	7	7	9	5
Total	589	280	308	142	152	171	123	295	294	491	61	167	422	225	184	171	53	514	232	239	90	294	254	232	280	211	302	247	291	270	277	137	200	237	218	220	123	90	119	109	219	51
Composition of Likely Voters	100%	48%	52%	24%	26%	29%	21%	50%	50%	83%	10%	28%	72%	38%	31%	29%	9%	88%	40%	41%	15%	50%	43%	39%	48%	36%	51%	42%	50%	47%	48%	24%	35%	41%	39%	39%	22%	15%	20%	18%	37%	9%

6	Do you cast this vote enthusiastically? Or with reservations?

557 Who Are Not Undecided	All	Gender		Age				<50 / 50+		Race		Cell Phone / Lan		Party Affiliation			Tea Party Member		Ideology			Presidential Vot		Governor Vote		Senate Vote		Evangelical		Abortion		Education			Income			Region
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct points	All	Male	Female	18-34	35-49	50-64	65+	18-49	50+	White	Black	Cell Pho	Landline	Republic	Democrat	Independ	Yes	No	Conserva	Moderate	Liberal	Romney (	Obama (D	Spence (	Nixon (D	Akin (R)	McCaskil	Yes	No	Pro-life	Pro-choi	High Sch	Some Col	4-year C	< $40K	$40K - $	> $80K	Northern	Kansas C	Southwes	St. Loui	Southeas
Enthusiastically	390	183	207	99	94	110	87	193	197	313	53	102	288	124	159	102	38	337	146	147	76	149	222	130	223	124	248	164	195	171	199	81	142	157	144	151	76	58	80	67	151	33
With Reservations	164	84	81	32	51	53	29	83	82	149	6	48	116	85	21	55	16	145	75	73	13	128	26	95	48	86	52	74	81	88	63	43	45	73	59	58	41	29	32	34	58	12
Not Sure	3	3	0	1	1	1	0	2	2	3	1	1	2	1	1	1	0	3	1	2	0	1	1	0	3	1	2	0	3	1	1	1	1	1	2	1	0	1	0	1	1	0
Total	557	270	287	131	146	164	116	277	280	464	60	151	406	210	181	158	53	485	222	223	88	278	249	225	273	211	302	238	278	260	264	125	189	231	204	210	117	87	112	102	210	45
Composition of Who Are Not Undecided	100%	48%	52%	24%	26%	29%	21%	50%	50%	83%	11%	27%	73%	38%	33%	28%	10%	87%	40%	40%	16%	50%	45%	40%	49%	38%	54%	43%	50%	48%	48%	23%	35%	42%	38%	40%	22%	16%	20%	18%	38%	8%