Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #6841
Analysis: In a Runoff for Mayor of Mobile today, 9/12/05, the eve of the 9/13/05 vote, Sam Jones defeats John Peavy 56% to 40%, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 518 likely Mobile voters, conducted exclusively for WKRG-TV. The electorate is fractured: Jones gets 96% of the African-American vote and 30% of the White vote. Peavy leads by 20 points among those age 65+ and leads by 43 points among Republicans. But Jones leads by 76 points among Democrats. Jones won the 8/23/05 Primary with 48% of the vote. 61% of those who supported other candidates in the Primary now back Peavy, but outgoing 4-term mayor Mike Dow's endorsement of Jones this weekend may have given Jones unstoppable momentum. Jones's support increased significantly over the 3 days the poll was conducted.
Filtering: 1,400 City of Mobile adults were interviewed 9/9/05 - 9/11/05. Of them, 1,211 were registered to vote. Of them, 518 were judged to be "likely" voters. Crosstabs reflect "likely" voters.
Pollster Caveat: A reliable assessment of candidate momentum requires multiple polls, but it was only possible to conduct 1 poll for this election because of Hurricane Katrina. Although Jones's support increased over the 3 days of this poll, daily samples are small and have a large margin of error. For example, in data from Sunday 9/11 only, Jones leads by 24 pts among likely voters, but the margin of error for this one-day subsample is +/- 6.5%.
1Mobile will elect a Mayor in a Runoff on Tuesday. If the Runoff election for mayor of Mobile were today, and you were standing in the voting booth right now, who would you vote for? Sam Jones? Or John Peavy?
518 Likely VotersAllGenderAgeRacePartyDayIdeologyEducationVoted For Mobile Mayor Primary
Credibility Interval: ± 4.4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+WhiteBlackRepublicDemocratIndependFri 9/9Sat 9/10Sun 9/11ConservaModerateLiberalNot SureGrad SchCollege Some ColNo ColleDid Not JonesPeavySomeone
Composition of Likely Voters100%48%52%24%31%27%18%59%38%37%41%19%27%29%44%42%38%13%7%23%27%26%24%14%42%22%22%