Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19990
 
Portland Oregon Voters Focus on City Arts Tax: Support and Opposition Leap:

City of Portland Oregon voters are newly focused on the City Arts Tax ballot measure, which remains too-close-to-call 6 days until votes are counted. Today, 36% vote Yes on the arts tax, 30% vote No. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll 3 weeks ago, Yes is up 15 points, No is up 8 points. The measure had been tied, now nominally leads.

In an election for Mayor of Portland, Charlie Hales appears to pull away at the finish line, defeating Jefferson Smith 45% to 32%. Hales leads by 24 points among voters who tell SurveyUSA they have already returned a ballot.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 850 Multnomah County adults 10/26/12 through 10/30/12. After filtering questions were applied, 720 voters in Multnomah County were identified, of which 553 were also likely voters in the city of Portland. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were shown a questionnaire on their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. Incumbent mayor Sam Adams is not seeking a second term.

 
If the election for Portland mayor were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Charlie Hales? Or Jefferson Smith?
553 Portland Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceWhen Will You Vote?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitAlready Before EON ElectCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW Portl
Charlie Hales45%51%39%32%49%48%59%40%52%47%35%56%35%48%34%48%46%49%32%32%51%48%35%37%52%39%38%57%53%44%40%42%50%
Jefferson Smith32%30%34%36%32%29%26%34%28%30%39%32%32%32%35%31%29%33%32%42%28%30%39%35%28%34%37%25%32%27%37%25%34%
Undecided24%19%28%32%19%23%14%26%20%23%26%12%32%20%31%21%25%18%35%27%20%22%25%28%20%27%24%17%15%29%23%33%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Portland Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%33%30%24%13%63%37%83%17%41%51%7%24%76%19%58%23%19%39%36%13%36%51%35%32%33%11%28%37%7%17%
 
 
On the Portland City Arts Tax ballot measure, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
553 Portland Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceWhen Will You Vote?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitAlready Before EON ElectCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW Portl
Yes36%34%38%38%38%30%36%38%32%37%32%39%33%38%46%33%24%45%24%24%34%47%20%34%42%32%37%44%49%33%34%41%42%
No30%34%25%22%25%43%35%23%40%30%30%39%23%24%20%33%41%24%34%47%28%24%31%30%29%27%33%29%20%31%32%20%29%
Not Certain35%33%37%40%37%27%29%39%28%34%39%22%44%38%34%35%34%31%43%30%37%29%49%35%30%42%31%28%31%35%34%39%29%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Portland Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%33%30%24%13%63%37%83%17%41%51%7%24%76%19%58%23%19%39%36%13%36%51%35%32%33%11%28%37%7%17%
 
 
On the Portland School District Bond measure, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
553 Portland Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceWhen Will You Vote?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitAlready Before EON ElectCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW Portl
Yes48%48%49%54%50%41%44%52%42%47%55%51%47%42%58%45%27%59%41%25%48%64%32%46%55%50%42%56%50%48%48%43%59%
No26%29%22%14%22%41%35%18%39%27%20%34%19%26%13%29%45%20%23%48%25%15%29%29%22%22%29%25%24%28%24%20%25%
Not Certain26%23%29%32%28%19%21%30%20%26%25%15%34%31%28%25%29%21%36%26%27%22%39%25%23%27%29%19%26%23%28%37%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Portland Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%33%30%24%13%63%37%83%17%41%51%7%24%76%19%58%23%19%39%36%13%36%51%35%32%33%11%28%37%7%17%
 
 
On the Multnomah County Library Taxing District Creation measure, are you ...? Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain?
720 Multnomah County Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceWhen Will You Vote?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitAlready Before EON ElectCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW Portl
Yes47%43%51%48%50%42%52%49%46%47%49%53%42%56%57%45%34%58%38%32%42%67%39%41%56%49%45%53%52%56%46%53%60%
No26%33%20%22%22%34%29%22%32%26%28%30%24%25%22%27%39%19%30%43%29%13%27%32%21%22%31%24%25%27%29%21%23%
Not Certain26%23%29%30%28%24%18%29%22%27%23%17%34%19%21%28%27%23%32%25%30%21%33%27%23%29%25%23%23%16%25%26%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Multnomah County Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%32%28%26%14%60%40%83%17%42%52%6%21%79%23%55%22%22%39%34%14%38%47%35%34%32%11%28%37%7%17%
 
 
One last topic: Should fluoride be added to Portland's drinking water? Or not?
594 Portland Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceWhen Will You Vote?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitAlready Before EON ElectCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW Portl
Should45%46%44%41%46%46%54%43%49%47%37%46%46%42%45%45%44%49%37%40%47%50%36%37%55%35%51%54%45%37%42%47%68%
Should Not46%46%46%52%44%46%35%48%42%44%55%48%43%47%44%46%52%42%50%56%47%36%52%57%35%55%42%37%44%50%50%45%28%
Not Sure9%8%10%7%11%8%11%9%9%9%8%6%11%11%11%8%4%9%13%4%7%14%12%6%10%10%7%9%11%12%8%8%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Portland Registered Voters100%49%51%35%29%23%13%64%36%81%19%38%51%7%24%76%19%58%23%19%40%35%14%37%49%38%32%31%11%28%38%7%17%
 
 
Regardless of whether or not you think fluoride should be added to the water, how should that decision be made? By a vote of the city council? Or by a vote of Portland's residents?
594 Portland Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceWhen Will You Vote?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyEducationIncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitAlready Before EON ElectCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KN PortlaNE PortlSE PortlNW PortlSW Portl
Vote Of The City Council21%27%16%21%23%21%22%22%21%21%22%22%22%26%20%22%10%24%25%14%21%27%17%11%31%18%16%33%14%26%14%38%31%
Vote Of Portland's Residents76%70%81%76%74%78%76%75%77%76%76%77%75%69%76%76%88%72%74%84%76%69%82%88%64%80%82%63%79%73%84%62%65%
Not Sure3%3%3%3%3%1%2%3%2%3%2%2%3%6%4%2%2%4%1%2%2%4%1%1%4%1%2%5%8%1%2%0%4%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Portland Registered Voters100%49%51%35%29%23%13%64%36%81%19%38%51%7%24%76%19%58%23%19%40%35%14%37%49%38%32%31%11%28%38%7%17%