Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19980
 
Nevada 3rd Congressional District Poised to Re-Elect Republican Heck: Democrat Oceguera Trails in Home Stretch:

In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives from Nevada's 3rd Congressional District today, 10/24/12, thirteen days until votes are counted, incumbent Republican Joe Heck has a 50% to 40% advantage over Democratic challenger John Oceguera, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for the Las Vegas Review Journal and KLAS-TV.

Oceguera and Heck run even among the youngest voters, but Heck leads among voters age 35+, with particular strength among seniors. Oceguera and Heck run even among women, but Heck leads by 18 points among men. Heck leads among the educated and the less educated. Heck leads among the affluent and the less affluent. Oceguera manages only a tie in union households, a constituency that Democrats need to win if they are to have a chance. Oceguera manages only a tie among moderates, a group that Democrats need to dominate to have a chance to win. Independents break for Heck by 25 points.

* Since a SurveyUSA tracking poll 6 weeks ago, Heck's Net Favorable Rating has declined from Plus 22 to Plus 11.
* Compared to 6 weeks ago, Oceguera's favorability rating has declined from Plus 9 to Minus 7. Oceguera's "unfavorable" number has gone from 20% to 35%.
* By 46% to 42%, voters today say Heck will do more to protect Medicare. Heck led by 13 points 6 weeks ago.
* By 47% to 42% voters today say Heck is more in touch with the average working person. Heck led by 11 points 6 weeks ago.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 550 registered voters from Nevada's 3rd Congressional District 10/21/12 through 10/23/12, using Registration Based Sample (voter list sample) provided by Aristotle of Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 502 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (80% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (20% of likely voters) were called on their cell phone, by live operators, who hand-dialed the phone, secured the cell-phone owner's cooperation, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent's answers, and remained on the phone until the interview was completed.

 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Nevada's 3rd Congressional District were today, would you vote for ... (candidate names rotated) Republican Joe Heck? Democrat John Oceguera? Or some other candidate?
502 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnion20082010EducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Joe Heck (R)50%54%45%41%49%50%54%47%52%53%24%53%43%38%53%92%80%82%49%20%14%4%88%8%55%86%47%84%43%12%46%51%21%86%89%10%51%51%49%47%53%51%
John Oceguera (D)40%36%44%43%38%41%39%39%40%38%58%36%47%37%41%6%9%10%24%72%73%87%7%80%30%14%43%12%43%80%45%39%68%9%6%79%35%39%43%42%37%43%
Other5%5%6%8%8%3%5%8%4%5%14%7%4%7%5%1%3%4%15%6%6%7%2%7%8%0%6%2%8%5%7%5%6%3%3%7%4%5%5%6%5%4%
Undecided5%4%5%7%5%6%2%6%4%5%5%4%6%17%1%1%8%4%11%3%7%2%4%4%6%0%5%2%6%4%2%5%4%2%1%3%10%5%3%5%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%52%48%12%25%31%32%36%64%73%7%10%10%20%80%23%15%10%9%6%17%20%38%37%25%8%91%37%38%22%21%78%51%42%45%40%12%36%52%20%37%43%
 
 
Is your opinion of Joe Heck ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
502 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnion20082010EducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable44%46%41%31%41%46%48%38%47%46%17%47%41%30%47%84%71%73%43%11%7%3%79%5%47%87%40%76%36%7%42%45%16%79%82%7%48%44%43%41%48%42%
Unfavorable33%28%37%26%30%36%34%29%35%32%47%27%34%19%36%3%11%9%26%61%53%72%6%63%28%9%35%6%37%66%38%31%55%7%4%67%27%30%36%35%29%36%
Neutral14%16%12%18%15%12%14%16%13%13%19%15%17%20%13%8%11%14%19%24%21%13%9%17%19%4%15%11%14%18%12%15%18%9%10%16%9%14%16%13%13%16%
No Opinion10%10%10%26%14%6%4%18%5%9%17%12%8%30%3%5%7%4%11%3%19%12%6%16%6%0%10%6%13%8%9%10%11%5%3%11%17%12%5%11%10%6%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%52%48%12%25%31%32%36%64%73%7%10%10%20%80%23%15%10%9%6%17%20%38%37%25%8%91%37%38%22%21%78%51%42%45%40%12%36%52%20%37%43%
 
 
Is your opinion of John Oceguera ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
502 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnion20082010EducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable28%26%31%26%28%28%29%28%29%26%40%29%32%24%29%6%6%9%20%39%53%59%6%57%20%10%30%7%29%59%33%26%48%7%7%53%26%26%29%30%24%30%
Unfavorable35%39%31%24%33%38%38%31%38%37%23%38%26%17%40%61%49%61%39%19%8%9%57%8%43%67%32%58%30%11%35%35%17%57%62%11%32%35%37%35%38%35%
Neutral23%20%26%21%22%23%24%22%23%22%24%19%29%18%24%16%28%19%24%39%23%23%21%23%25%16%23%19%26%24%23%23%25%21%20%26%18%24%23%22%23%24%
No Opinion14%15%13%28%16%11%10%20%10%14%13%15%13%41%7%16%18%12%17%3%16%9%17%12%11%7%14%16%15%7%9%15%10%16%12%10%24%15%10%13%16%11%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%52%48%12%25%31%32%36%64%73%7%10%10%20%80%23%15%10%9%6%17%20%38%37%25%8%91%37%38%22%21%78%51%42%45%40%12%36%52%20%37%43%
 
 
What one issue should your Congressman focus on ahead of all others ...? Jobs? Abortion? Taxes? Health care? The federal debt? Education? Immigration? Housing? Or some other issue?
501 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnion20082010EducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Jobs52%49%55%57%46%54%54%49%54%56%43%48%32%52%53%63%54%55%40%49%45%49%60%47%48%59%52%59%49%48%51%53%47%60%60%44%53%53%52%57%50%53%
Abortion3%2%3%3%3%2%3%3%2%3%1%3%3%4%2%3%3%4%2%2%3%2%3%2%3%5%2%3%2%2%4%2%2%3%3%3%0%3%2%2%2%3%
Taxes6%6%5%6%6%7%4%6%6%6%4%7%7%4%6%5%5%11%9%3%6%4%5%5%8%4%6%5%7%6%6%6%6%6%7%6%7%5%7%5%7%6%
Health Care12%12%13%3%9%13%17%7%15%12%15%8%19%6%13%6%8%3%12%20%17%21%7%19%10%6%13%7%14%19%11%13%18%6%6%20%11%13%12%12%13%10%
Federal Debt11%15%8%6%14%13%10%11%11%11%9%13%15%11%11%15%17%19%17%4%4%5%15%5%15%19%10%15%12%4%12%11%7%16%17%5%9%10%13%7%12%12%
Education8%8%8%17%15%4%3%16%4%6%23%11%7%14%6%1%5%3%10%14%13%14%3%14%8%5%8%2%11%11%8%8%12%3%2%14%8%8%8%8%8%7%
Immigration3%4%2%3%3%3%3%3%3%2%1%7%6%3%3%2%5%3%1%4%4%1%3%3%2%1%3%3%2%4%5%2%2%3%3%2%3%4%2%3%3%3%
Housing2%2%3%0%3%3%1%2%2%2%1%0%5%3%2%3%2%3%5%2%2%0%3%1%3%1%2%4%2%1%2%2%2%2%2%2%4%2%2%2%2%3%
Other2%1%3%3%0%2%3%1%2%1%1%2%6%2%2%1%0%1%3%2%4%3%1%3%2%0%2%1%2%3%2%2%2%1%1%3%3%3%1%3%2%2%
Not Sure1%1%1%0%0%0%2%0%1%1%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%0%1%1%1%1%0%0%1%0%1%1%0%1%1%0%0%1%1%1%1%1%1%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%52%48%12%25%31%32%37%63%73%7%10%10%20%80%23%15%10%9%6%17%20%38%37%25%8%91%37%38%22%21%78%51%42%45%40%12%35%52%20%37%42%
 
 
Who will do more to protect Medicare?
502 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnion20082010EducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Joe Heck46%50%42%37%42%47%52%41%50%49%20%50%42%31%51%86%76%81%42%16%12%2%82%7%51%81%43%79%40%8%46%47%18%81%86%8%51%46%46%47%51%45%
John Oceguera42%40%45%44%43%42%42%44%42%41%66%38%40%37%43%5%10%9%31%76%76%92%7%85%33%13%45%10%47%86%46%41%73%8%7%84%33%39%47%43%38%45%
Not Sure11%10%13%19%14%11%7%16%9%10%14%11%18%31%6%9%14%10%27%8%11%6%11%9%15%6%12%11%13%6%8%12%9%10%7%8%16%14%7%10%11%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%52%48%12%25%31%32%36%64%73%7%10%10%20%80%23%15%10%9%6%17%20%38%37%25%8%91%37%38%22%21%78%51%42%45%40%12%36%52%20%37%43%
 
 
Who is more in touch with the average working person?
502 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceCell Phone / LanParty AffiliationPartyTea Party MemberIdeologyUnion20082010EducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / Cell PhoLandlineStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicDemocratIndependYesNoConservaModerateLiberalYesNoBarack OJohn McCRepublicDemocratHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Joe Heck47%51%42%38%45%49%49%43%49%49%23%48%45%38%49%88%74%80%48%12%11%2%83%6%52%84%43%80%39%9%43%48%17%81%84%9%49%46%47%42%53%46%
John Oceguera42%38%47%44%41%40%43%42%42%40%62%40%40%34%44%5%11%11%30%67%78%90%7%84%31%12%45%9%47%85%46%41%72%8%7%82%37%39%45%46%37%44%
Not Sure12%12%11%18%14%11%8%16%9%11%16%12%15%28%8%7%14%9%22%21%11%8%10%10%17%4%12%10%14%7%11%12%11%10%8%10%15%15%9%12%10%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%52%48%12%25%31%32%36%64%73%7%10%10%20%80%23%15%10%9%6%17%20%38%37%25%8%91%37%38%22%21%78%51%42%45%40%12%36%52%20%37%43%