Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14188
3 Months to Election, Incumbent Smith 12 Atop Merkley in Bid to Hold US Senate Seat for GOP: In an election for United States Senator in Oregon today, 08/05/08, incumbent Republican Gordon Smith retains his seat, fighting off Democrat Jeff Merkley, the Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, 49% to 37%, according to this KATU-TV news poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow takes 8% of the vote. Smith, considered by some to be vulnerable among the Republicans who must defend US Senate seats in 2008, leads today among both men and women, leads among the rich and poor, leads among the more educated and less uneducated, and leads in both the Portland area and the rest of the state. 9% of Republicans cross-over and vote Democrat. 3 times as many Demorats, 28%, cross-over and vote Republican. Independents split. Smith, first elected in 1996, is seeking his third term in the U.S. Senate. Merkley was first elected to the state House in 1998.
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Oregon adults 08/02/08 through 08/04/08. Of them, 809 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 629 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election.
Voters will also elect a United States Senator. If the election for United States Senator were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Gordon Smith? Democrat Jeff Merkley? Or Constitution Party candidate Dave Brownlow?
629 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsianRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad< $50K> $50KPortlandRest of
Gordon Smith (R)49%51%48%53%42%53%52%47%52%50%******80%28%37%76%47%19%51%48%64%44%39%70%38%55%48%43%53%49%51%
Jeff Merkley (D)37%35%39%29%41%37%39%36%38%37%******9%63%35%9%43%66%39%35%21%42%49%15%49%26%41%37%37%38%36%
Dave Brownlow (C)8%9%6%11%9%6%5%10%6%8%******7%4%18%11%7%8%5%10%9%6%8%10%7%10%7%13%4%8%8%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%22%30%30%19%51%49%90%2%4%5%37%41%21%28%43%21%46%54%37%22%41%35%61%22%77%40%60%65%35%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.