Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19828
 
In Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, Jump Ball Between 1st-Term Incumbent Republican Cravaack and DFL Challenger Nolan:

In an election for the U.S. House of Representatives today from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District, incumbent Republican Chip Cravaack and former Congressman Rick Nolan are eyeball-to-eyeball in a contest too-close-to-call, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Nolan is at 46%, Cravaack is at 45% in today's results.

The 20-point gender gap and 26-point age gap are significant: Nolan leads by 10 among women. Cravaack leads by 10 among men. Cravaack leads by 15 points among voters under age 50. Nolan leads by 11 points among voters age 50+. Independents break 5:3 Republican. Moderates break 2:1 Democrat. Nolan has a 17-point lead in union households. Cravaack has a 9-point lead in non-union households. Of Barack Obama voters, 88% vote for the DFL candidate for Congress. Of Mitt Romney voters, 89% vote for the Republican for Congress.

* By 34% to 31%, Cravaack is seen as stronger on mining issues.
* By 41% to 36%, voters say Nolan will do more to protect Medicare.
* By 41% to 38%, voters say Cravaack will do more to bring jobs to the district.

* Nolan has a Plus 8 Net Favorability rating: 34% of voters see him favorably, compared to 26% who see him unfavorably.
* Cravaack has a Plus 5 Net Favorability rating: 38% of voters see him favorably, compared to 33% who see him unfavorably.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research. SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District 10/07/12 through 10/09/12, using registration-based (voter-list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, SurveyUSA determined that 578 were likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones, by live operators who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent's cooperation, asked the questions and remained on the line until the conclusion of the interview.

 
If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 8th Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican Chip Cravaack? Or DFL Candidate Rick Nolan?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)45%50%41%45%56%42%40%51%41%40%47%89%6%53%76%30%5%89%4%38%50%50%49%39%42%47%48%
Rick Nolan (DFL)46%40%51%37%35%50%54%36%52%35%49%7%87%36%16%63%84%7%88%55%41%44%43%49%52%45%45%
Undecided9%10%9%18%9%7%6%13%7%25%4%5%8%10%8%7%11%4%9%7%9%6%9%11%6%7%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%
 
 
Is your opinion of Chip Cravaack ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable38%42%35%38%47%35%35%43%35%32%40%74%6%45%66%25%4%76%4%33%42%43%41%34%31%39%45%
Unfavorable33%29%37%18%29%40%39%24%39%22%37%4%64%27%10%44%67%4%66%44%29%30%31%37%35%35%33%
Neutral19%19%19%25%14%19%19%19%19%24%17%16%20%20%16%21%23%16%22%16%20%20%19%18%25%18%14%
No Opinion9%11%8%19%10%6%7%14%6%22%5%6%11%7%8%10%7%4%9%7%10%7%9%10%9%8%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%
 
 
Is your opinion of Rick Nolan ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable34%30%38%23%25%40%42%24%41%20%38%7%68%23%10%47%67%6%65%44%29%28%30%40%35%35%35%
Unfavorable26%32%20%20%26%30%24%23%27%15%29%52%6%27%46%16%2%49%3%23%27%34%28%20%24%26%28%
Neutral24%22%27%24%31%21%23%28%22%25%24%21%18%32%24%24%22%27%22%20%26%24%26%23%28%25%20%
No Opinion16%16%16%33%19%9%11%25%10%39%9%20%9%18%20%13%9%19%9%13%17%14%16%16%13%14%17%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%
 
 
Who is stronger on mining issues?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)34%42%25%33%35%32%35%34%34%25%36%60%7%42%55%24%7%64%5%29%37%40%37%28%33%33%38%
Rick Nolan (DFL)31%26%37%24%25%36%36%24%36%19%35%4%64%23%11%44%59%4%62%41%27%31%27%37%32%30%34%
Not Sure35%32%38%44%40%31%29%42%30%56%29%36%29%35%34%32%34%32%33%30%37%29%37%36%35%37%28%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%
 
 
Who will do more to protect Medicare?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)36%41%31%38%35%36%36%36%36%28%38%67%6%45%63%23%3%71%3%32%39%43%38%31%36%36%38%
Rick Nolan (DFL)41%38%44%31%32%47%49%31%48%29%45%8%77%33%14%57%78%7%79%47%39%39%38%46%45%41%41%
Not Sure23%21%24%31%33%17%16%32%17%43%17%25%17%23%23%20%20%22%18%21%23%18%24%24%19%23%21%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%
 
 
Who will do more to bring jobs to the district?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Chip Cravaack (R)41%47%35%44%44%40%37%44%39%35%43%73%8%50%70%26%5%79%5%34%44%47%43%36%39%44%42%
Rick Nolan (DFL)38%35%42%30%27%45%45%28%45%28%42%6%74%31%12%54%75%6%75%47%35%35%37%42%43%37%39%
Not Sure21%18%23%26%29%14%18%27%16%37%15%20%18%19%18%20%20%15%20%19%21%18%20%22%18%19%19%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%
 
 
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
578 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+Cell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Mitt Romney (R)47%51%43%46%55%43%44%51%44%41%49%95%6%53%79%32%4%100%0%40%51%49%54%38%40%48%52%
Barack Obama (D)45%39%51%42%34%49%52%37%50%40%46%4%90%34%14%60%86%0%100%53%41%44%40%50%50%45%41%
Other4%6%3%3%8%4%1%6%3%7%3%1%3%7%3%4%5%0%0%3%4%4%4%5%7%3%3%
Undecided4%5%4%9%3%4%2%6%3%12%2%1%2%6%4%4%5%0%0%4%4%3%2%7%3%4%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%17%23%33%27%40%60%22%78%28%35%32%42%35%16%47%45%34%65%18%42%40%27%44%29%