| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20068 |
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In California's 52nd Congressional District, Republican Bilbray and Democrat Peters In Tight Fight, 6 Days till Votes Are Counted:
6 days until votes are counted in California, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Scott Peters are tied, 46% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV in San Diego. Peters leads among younger voters, Bilbray leads among older voters. As evidence of how closely contested the contest is: men split, women split, whites split, those who have already voted split, those who have not yet voted split, middle-income and upper-income voters split. Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from California's 52nd Congressional District 10/28/12 through 10/30/12, using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 628 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before election day. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (82% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (18% of likely voters) were called by live-operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent's answers and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call. |
| 1 | If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 52nd Congressional District were today, would you vote for ... (candidate names rotated) Republican Brian Bilbray? Or Democrat Scott Peters? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Brian Bilbray (R) | 46% | 46% | 45% | 33% | 36% | 49% | 54% | 35% | 51% | 46% | ** | 36% | 55% | 46% | 45% | 30% | 50% | 80% | 10% | 42% | 84% | 38% | 5% | 48% | 46% | 38% | 54% | 42% | 42% | 46% | 46% | 88% | 3% |
| Scott Peters (D) | 46% | 45% | 47% | 45% | 50% | 47% | 42% | 49% | 45% | 48% | ** | 45% | 30% | 48% | 45% | 44% | 46% | 15% | 85% | 45% | 11% | 53% | 87% | 44% | 46% | 56% | 38% | 49% | 47% | 44% | 48% | 7% | 89% |
| Undecided | 8% | 8% | 8% | 22% | 14% | 4% | 4% | 16% | 4% | 6% | ** | 19% | 15% | 7% | 10% | 26% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 14% | 5% | 10% | 8% | 8% | 8% | 6% | 7% | 9% | 11% | 10% | 6% | 5% | 8% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |
| 2 | Is your opinion of Brian Bilbray ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Favorable | 37% | 38% | 37% | 28% | 28% | 40% | 45% | 28% | 42% | 37% | ** | 33% | 48% | 36% | 38% | 20% | 41% | 65% | 9% | 31% | 68% | 30% | 5% | 40% | 37% | 35% | 45% | 34% | 34% | 39% | 37% | 71% | 4% |
| Unfavorable | 32% | 34% | 30% | 19% | 32% | 37% | 32% | 28% | 35% | 36% | ** | 25% | 12% | 34% | 31% | 16% | 36% | 10% | 62% | 31% | 6% | 38% | 64% | 31% | 33% | 21% | 26% | 37% | 23% | 32% | 36% | 5% | 63% |
| Neutral | 18% | 16% | 20% | 24% | 20% | 18% | 15% | 21% | 17% | 16% | ** | 20% | 21% | 17% | 19% | 26% | 17% | 17% | 15% | 26% | 18% | 21% | 12% | 17% | 18% | 29% | 19% | 16% | 20% | 19% | 18% | 17% | 19% |
| No Opinion | 12% | 12% | 13% | 29% | 20% | 6% | 8% | 23% | 7% | 10% | ** | 22% | 19% | 13% | 12% | 38% | 6% | 7% | 15% | 12% | 8% | 11% | 19% | 12% | 11% | 16% | 11% | 12% | 22% | 10% | 10% | 7% | 14% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |
| 3 | Is your opinion of Scott Peters ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Favorable | 31% | 28% | 33% | 24% | 29% | 33% | 31% | 28% | 32% | 33% | ** | 30% | 13% | 33% | 29% | 25% | 32% | 12% | 58% | 25% | 8% | 34% | 60% | 30% | 31% | 31% | 25% | 34% | 27% | 30% | 34% | 6% | 58% |
| Unfavorable | 34% | 36% | 32% | 30% | 21% | 39% | 42% | 24% | 40% | 35% | ** | 28% | 37% | 35% | 34% | 18% | 39% | 55% | 11% | 37% | 63% | 28% | 6% | 40% | 34% | 37% | 40% | 32% | 34% | 39% | 32% | 62% | 6% |
| Neutral | 23% | 24% | 23% | 16% | 30% | 23% | 22% | 25% | 22% | 23% | ** | 22% | 28% | 21% | 25% | 20% | 24% | 23% | 21% | 29% | 17% | 29% | 20% | 18% | 24% | 25% | 24% | 23% | 25% | 20% | 25% | 21% | 26% |
| No Opinion | 12% | 11% | 12% | 30% | 20% | 6% | 5% | 23% | 5% | 9% | ** | 20% | 23% | 11% | 12% | 37% | 5% | 10% | 10% | 9% | 12% | 9% | 14% | 12% | 11% | 7% | 11% | 12% | 15% | 11% | 10% | 11% | 9% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |
| 4 | Who will do more to protect Medicare? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Brian Bilbray (R) | 36% | 38% | 34% | 29% | 27% | 39% | 42% | 27% | 40% | 36% | ** | 28% | 45% | 40% | 33% | 18% | 41% | 60% | 10% | 36% | 65% | 30% | 8% | 36% | 37% | 34% | 42% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 68% | 3% |
| Scott Peters (D) | 38% | 39% | 38% | 31% | 39% | 42% | 36% | 37% | 39% | 41% | ** | 39% | 20% | 38% | 39% | 29% | 40% | 14% | 70% | 35% | 9% | 45% | 72% | 36% | 38% | 39% | 30% | 42% | 33% | 38% | 40% | 7% | 74% |
| Not Sure | 26% | 23% | 28% | 40% | 34% | 20% | 22% | 36% | 21% | 23% | ** | 34% | 36% | 22% | 29% | 53% | 19% | 26% | 20% | 29% | 26% | 26% | 21% | 28% | 25% | 27% | 28% | 24% | 31% | 26% | 24% | 25% | 23% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |
| 5 | Who will bring more jobs to the district? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Brian Bilbray (R) | 40% | 43% | 38% | 31% | 32% | 44% | 46% | 32% | 45% | 40% | ** | 36% | 48% | 41% | 40% | 20% | 45% | 69% | 10% | 39% | 72% | 35% | 6% | 43% | 41% | 38% | 50% | 36% | 34% | 44% | 40% | 76% | 5% |
| Scott Peters (D) | 30% | 27% | 32% | 22% | 31% | 31% | 30% | 28% | 31% | 31% | ** | 30% | 20% | 33% | 27% | 20% | 32% | 10% | 58% | 26% | 6% | 34% | 61% | 28% | 30% | 28% | 26% | 32% | 30% | 30% | 30% | 6% | 59% |
| Not Sure | 30% | 30% | 30% | 46% | 37% | 25% | 24% | 40% | 25% | 29% | ** | 34% | 31% | 26% | 33% | 60% | 23% | 22% | 32% | 36% | 22% | 32% | 33% | 29% | 29% | 34% | 24% | 32% | 36% | 26% | 30% | 19% | 36% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |
| 6 | Who better reflects your positions on social issues? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Brian Bilbray (R) | 42% | 43% | 41% | 28% | 35% | 45% | 49% | 33% | 47% | 42% | ** | 39% | 55% | 41% | 43% | 25% | 47% | 75% | 8% | 39% | 77% | 34% | 7% | 46% | 42% | 36% | 51% | 39% | 35% | 43% | 44% | 81% | 3% |
| Scott Peters (D) | 42% | 41% | 44% | 33% | 48% | 45% | 37% | 44% | 41% | 45% | ** | 39% | 24% | 45% | 40% | 37% | 43% | 15% | 76% | 40% | 10% | 49% | 77% | 41% | 42% | 46% | 34% | 46% | 36% | 40% | 45% | 8% | 81% |
| Not Sure | 16% | 16% | 16% | 39% | 17% | 10% | 13% | 24% | 12% | 13% | ** | 22% | 22% | 14% | 17% | 38% | 10% | 11% | 16% | 21% | 12% | 17% | 16% | 13% | 16% | 18% | 15% | 15% | 29% | 17% | 11% | 11% | 16% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |
| 7 | If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates? |
| 628 Likely & Actual Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Already Voted? | Cell Phone / Lan | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Union | Education | Income | Preidential Vote | ||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Asian / | Yes | No | Cell Pho | Landline | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Yes | No | High Sch | Some Col | 4-year C | < $40K | $40K - $ | > $80K | Romney | Obama | |
| Mitt Romney (R) | 48% | 50% | 46% | 37% | 42% | 49% | 56% | 41% | 52% | 48% | ** | 45% | 56% | 47% | 49% | 40% | 50% | 84% | 10% | 43% | 88% | 38% | 8% | 48% | 49% | 47% | 58% | 44% | 43% | 49% | 49% | 100% | 0% |
| Barack Obama (D) | 45% | 42% | 48% | 45% | 47% | 47% | 40% | 47% | 44% | 45% | ** | 44% | 34% | 46% | 45% | 45% | 45% | 13% | 87% | 41% | 8% | 53% | 87% | 49% | 44% | 38% | 39% | 49% | 49% | 44% | 45% | 0% | 100% |
| Other | 5% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 8% | 3% | 2% | 9% | 3% | 4% | ** | 9% | 7% | 6% | 4% | 10% | 4% | 3% | 1% | 13% | 3% | 6% | 4% | 3% | 5% | 11% | 2% | 6% | 6% | 5% | 4% | 0% | 0% |
| Undecided | 2% | 2% | 2% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 1% | 4% | 1% | 2% | ** | 2% | 3% | 1% | 3% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 2% | 5% | 1% | 2% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 0% | 0% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely & Actual Voters | 100% | 50% | 50% | 11% | 24% | 36% | 30% | 34% | 66% | 75% | 5% | 9% | 11% | 41% | 59% | 18% | 82% | 41% | 34% | 23% | 33% | 42% | 22% | 16% | 83% | 5% | 32% | 63% | 15% | 30% | 55% | 48% | 45% |