Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #20068
 
In California's 52nd Congressional District, Republican Bilbray and Democrat Peters In Tight Fight, 6 Days till Votes Are Counted:

6 days until votes are counted in California, Republican Brian Bilbray and Democrat Scott Peters are tied, 46% to 46%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KGTV-TV in San Diego. Peters leads among younger voters, Bilbray leads among older voters. As evidence of how closely contested the contest is: men split, women split, whites split, those who have already voted split, those who have not yet voted split, middle-income and upper-income voters split.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research, which was conducted 100% by telephone: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from California's 52nd Congressional District 10/28/12 through 10/30/12, using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 628 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot, or to be likely to do so on or before election day. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (82% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (18% of likely voters) were called by live-operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, interviewed the respondent, logged the respondent's answers and remained on the line until the conclusion of the call.

 
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from California's 52nd Congressional District were today, would you vote for ... (candidate names rotated) Republican Brian Bilbray? Or Democrat Scott Peters?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Brian Bilbray (R)46%46%45%33%36%49%54%35%51%46%**36%55%46%45%30%50%80%10%42%84%38%5%48%46%38%54%42%42%46%46%88%3%
Scott Peters (D)46%45%47%45%50%47%42%49%45%48%**45%30%48%45%44%46%15%85%45%11%53%87%44%46%56%38%49%47%44%48%7%89%
Undecided8%8%8%22%14%4%4%16%4%6%**19%15%7%10%26%4%5%5%14%5%10%8%8%8%6%7%9%11%10%6%5%8%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
2Is your opinion of Brian Bilbray ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Favorable37%38%37%28%28%40%45%28%42%37%**33%48%36%38%20%41%65%9%31%68%30%5%40%37%35%45%34%34%39%37%71%4%
Unfavorable32%34%30%19%32%37%32%28%35%36%**25%12%34%31%16%36%10%62%31%6%38%64%31%33%21%26%37%23%32%36%5%63%
Neutral18%16%20%24%20%18%15%21%17%16%**20%21%17%19%26%17%17%15%26%18%21%12%17%18%29%19%16%20%19%18%17%19%
No Opinion12%12%13%29%20%6%8%23%7%10%**22%19%13%12%38%6%7%15%12%8%11%19%12%11%16%11%12%22%10%10%7%14%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
3Is your opinion of Scott Peters ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Favorable31%28%33%24%29%33%31%28%32%33%**30%13%33%29%25%32%12%58%25%8%34%60%30%31%31%25%34%27%30%34%6%58%
Unfavorable34%36%32%30%21%39%42%24%40%35%**28%37%35%34%18%39%55%11%37%63%28%6%40%34%37%40%32%34%39%32%62%6%
Neutral23%24%23%16%30%23%22%25%22%23%**22%28%21%25%20%24%23%21%29%17%29%20%18%24%25%24%23%25%20%25%21%26%
No Opinion12%11%12%30%20%6%5%23%5%9%**20%23%11%12%37%5%10%10%9%12%9%14%12%11%7%11%12%15%11%10%11%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
4Who will do more to protect Medicare?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Brian Bilbray (R)36%38%34%29%27%39%42%27%40%36%**28%45%40%33%18%41%60%10%36%65%30%8%36%37%34%42%34%36%36%36%68%3%
Scott Peters (D)38%39%38%31%39%42%36%37%39%41%**39%20%38%39%29%40%14%70%35%9%45%72%36%38%39%30%42%33%38%40%7%74%
Not Sure26%23%28%40%34%20%22%36%21%23%**34%36%22%29%53%19%26%20%29%26%26%21%28%25%27%28%24%31%26%24%25%23%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
5Who will bring more jobs to the district?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Brian Bilbray (R)40%43%38%31%32%44%46%32%45%40%**36%48%41%40%20%45%69%10%39%72%35%6%43%41%38%50%36%34%44%40%76%5%
Scott Peters (D)30%27%32%22%31%31%30%28%31%31%**30%20%33%27%20%32%10%58%26%6%34%61%28%30%28%26%32%30%30%30%6%59%
Not Sure30%30%30%46%37%25%24%40%25%29%**34%31%26%33%60%23%22%32%36%22%32%33%29%29%34%24%32%36%26%30%19%36%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
6Who better reflects your positions on social issues?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Brian Bilbray (R)42%43%41%28%35%45%49%33%47%42%**39%55%41%43%25%47%75%8%39%77%34%7%46%42%36%51%39%35%43%44%81%3%
Scott Peters (D)42%41%44%33%48%45%37%44%41%45%**39%24%45%40%37%43%15%76%40%10%49%77%41%42%46%34%46%36%40%45%8%81%
Not Sure16%16%16%39%17%10%13%24%12%13%**22%22%14%17%38%10%11%16%21%12%17%16%13%16%18%15%15%29%17%11%11%16%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
7 If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
628 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Cell Phone / LanParty AffiliationIdeologyUnionEducationIncomePreidential Vote
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian / YesNoCell PhoLandlineRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KRomneyObama
Mitt Romney (R)48%50%46%37%42%49%56%41%52%48%**45%56%47%49%40%50%84%10%43%88%38%8%48%49%47%58%44%43%49%49%100%0%
Barack Obama (D)45%42%48%45%47%47%40%47%44%45%**44%34%46%45%45%45%13%87%41%8%53%87%49%44%38%39%49%49%44%45%0%100%
Other5%6%4%10%8%3%2%9%3%4%**9%7%6%4%10%4%3%1%13%3%6%4%3%5%11%2%6%6%5%4%0%0%
Undecided2%2%2%7%2%1%1%4%1%2%**2%3%1%3%5%1%1%2%3%1%2%1%0%2%5%1%2%3%2%1%0%0%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%50%50%11%24%36%30%34%66%75%5%9%11%41%59%18%82%41%34%23%33%42%22%16%83%5%32%63%15%30%55%48%45%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.