Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #19952
 
In MN-02, Incumbent Republican Kline Atop DFL Challenger Obermueller:

In an election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District today, 18 days until votes are counted, incumbent Republican John Kline leads DFL challenger Mike Obermueller 49% to 41%, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted for KSTP-TV in the Twin Cities. Kline's entire advantage comes from men. The contest is tied among women. Obermeuller ties Kline among voters age 50+, who are the most reliable voters. Kline leads among voters under age 50, who are sometimes less reliable voters. Independents break by 13 points for Kline. Moderates break by 7 points for Obermueller.

* Kline has a Plus 21 Net Favorability rating.
* Obermueller has a Plus 13 Net Favorability rating.
* By 43% to 33%, voters say Kline will do more to bring jobs to the district.
* By a narrow 40% to 38% margin, voters say Kline will do more to protect Medicare.
* By a narrow 37% to 35% margin, voters say Kline is stronger on education issues.
* President Obama carries the district 48% to 44% in an election today.

Cell-phone and home-phone respondents included in this research: SurveyUSA interviewed 700 registered voters from Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District 10/17/12 and 10/18/12 using registration based (voter list) sample from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 565 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/06/12 election. This research was conducted 100% by telephone. Respondents reachable on a home telephone were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone were called on their cell phones by live operators, who hand-dialed the phone, qualified the respondent, secured the respondent's cooperation, conducted the interview, logged the respondent's answers, and remained on the phone until the conclusion of the interview.

 
1If the election for U.S. House of Representatives from Minnesota's 2nd Congressional District were today, would you vote for... (candidate names rotated) Republican John Kline? Or DFL Candidate Mike Obermueller?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Kline (R)49%53%45%43%56%45%49%51%47%95%10%48%80%41%10%95%9%39%53%40%53%49%42%45%55%
Mike Obermueller (DFL)41%36%45%30%32%49%46%31%48%3%83%35%14%48%79%2%81%48%38%48%37%42%49%44%36%
Undecided11%11%10%28%12%6%5%18%6%2%7%17%5%11%11%2%10%13%9%12%11%10%9%12%9%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%
 
 
2Is your opinion of John Kline ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable41%46%37%34%45%40%42%41%41%80%10%38%69%33%11%80%8%32%45%35%42%42%38%37%46%
Unfavorable20%22%19%8%16%29%22%13%26%1%39%21%5%23%46%1%41%26%18%17%17%24%21%20%21%
Neutral25%19%29%21%27%23%28%25%25%12%35%28%15%33%25%14%34%28%24%34%23%23%27%25%23%
No Opinion14%13%15%37%12%9%9%21%9%7%16%13%11%11%19%6%17%14%14%14%18%11%14%18%10%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%
 
 
3Is your opinion of Mike Obermueller ... favorable? Unfavorable? Neutral? Or, do you have no opinion one way or the other?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Favorable29%25%32%13%22%38%34%19%36%4%58%24%9%34%57%2%57%36%26%33%24%30%32%30%26%
Unfavorable16%18%15%14%19%15%17%17%15%34%3%14%34%9%3%34%2%13%17%10%15%19%18%12%19%
Neutral30%31%30%30%32%28%31%31%29%31%27%35%28%34%26%33%26%26%32%32%32%29%31%31%29%
No Opinion25%26%24%43%27%20%18%33%19%31%13%27%29%23%14%31%15%25%25%25%29%22%19%27%26%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%
 
 
4Who will do more to bring jobs to the district?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Kline (R)43%49%38%40%50%39%44%47%41%85%10%41%75%34%11%86%8%34%47%37%45%44%37%38%50%
Mike Obermueller (DFL)33%30%36%23%26%41%37%25%39%3%65%30%11%40%64%1%67%40%30%36%31%33%40%36%28%
Not Sure24%21%26%36%24%20%19%28%20%12%25%29%15%26%24%13%25%26%22%27%23%23%23%25%22%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%
 
 
5Who will do more to protect Medicare?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Kline (R)40%44%36%31%44%37%45%39%40%80%8%36%69%31%8%81%6%30%44%33%39%41%35%36%44%
Mike Obermueller (DFL)38%35%41%28%32%46%40%30%44%6%72%37%13%47%70%3%75%49%34%40%36%39%45%38%36%
Not Sure22%21%23%41%24%17%15%30%16%14%20%27%17%22%22%16%19%21%22%27%24%20%20%25%20%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%
 
 
6Who is stronger on education issues?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
John Kline (R)37%39%35%33%38%35%41%36%37%73%7%33%63%29%9%71%8%29%40%28%40%37%36%33%40%
Mike Obermueller (DFL)35%32%39%23%32%42%38%29%41%6%68%33%12%44%66%4%69%47%31%39%31%37%37%37%34%
Not Sure28%29%27%44%31%23%21%35%22%22%25%34%25%27%25%25%23%25%29%33%29%26%28%30%26%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%
 
 
7 If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican Mitt Romney? Democrat Barack Obama? Or one of the other candidates?
565 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+Party AffiliationIdeologyPresidential VotUnionEducationIncome
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.2%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+RepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalMitt RomBarack OYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80K
Mitt Romney (R)44%49%40%40%53%38%45%49%41%91%6%41%80%33%9%100%0%36%48%36%45%46%37%39%52%
Barack Obama (D)48%42%53%43%38%56%50%40%53%6%90%45%16%58%85%0%100%56%44%54%45%47%55%48%43%
Other4%5%3%5%5%4%2%5%3%3%1%8%3%4%4%0%0%4%4%4%6%3%3%6%2%
Undecided4%4%5%12%4%2%4%7%3%0%3%6%1%5%3%0%0%4%5%5%4%5%5%6%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Voters100%47%53%15%28%36%21%43%57%32%34%30%34%43%17%44%48%28%72%15%33%52%16%37%48%