Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #23338
 
In Washington State, Early 'Banked' Votes Are Salvation for Democrats Clinton, Inslee and Murray; Late Red Tide
May Turn Evergreen And Other Blue States Purplish When Votes Are Counted; Carbon Tax Likely To Be Defeated;

Intentionally or otherwise, FBI Director James Comey has turned the 11/08/16 general election upside down, triggering a red riptide that may extend beyond the top of the ticket, according to SurveyUSA research conducted in Washington State for KING-TV in Seattle.

Pollsters, like candidates, are in uncharted waters during these final 5 days of the 2016 campaign. That caveat acknowledged, here is SurveyUSA's best take on the numbers we have gathered:

Democrat Hillary Clinton is way ahead among Washington state voters who have already returned a ballot, but the contest is effectively even among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it's Clinton 50%, Trump 38%, minor party candidates 9%.

Incumbent Democratic Governor Jay Inslee is way ahead among Washington state voters who have already returned a ballot, but Republican Bill Bryant leads among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it's Inslee 50%, Bryant 43%.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Patty Murray is way ahead among Washington State voters who have already returned a ballot, but Republican Chris Vance draws even with Murray among likely voters who have not yet voted. When the 2 groups are combined, it's Murray 53%, Vance 41%.

Here are 3 different ways to interpret the discrepancy between early and late voters across all of the top-of-ticket contests:

1: Republicans in 2016 are all talk, no walk. They won't show up on Election Day. Democrats cruise to victory in Washington State and elsewhere.
2: The air went out of the Democrats' balloon with Comey's 10/28/16 announcement; the wind is now at the Republicans' back. All bets are off.
3: Clinton's "ground game" has her just where she is supposed to be; the Comey announcement is a non-story.

Next Tuesday, we'll know which of these hypotheses is correct.

Clinton leads by 31 points among the youngest voters but by just 5 among seniors. The younger the electorate, the better Clinton will do. Trump leads by 24 points in Eastern WA. Clinton leads 2:1 in metropolitan Seattle. Trump holds 85% of the Republican base. Clinton holds 94% of the Democratic base. Independents split. Moderate break for Clinton 5:3. Clinton leads by 12 points among the most affluent voters and by 22 points among the most educated voters. She leads by 22 points in urban Washington and by 19 points in suburban Washington. Trump leads by 10 points in rural Washington. Clinton leads by 29 points among single voters; married voters split. Clinton leads by 27 points among voters who have lived in Washington State less than 20 years. Clinton leads by just 7 points among those who have lived in Washington more than 20 years.

Among voters who say honesty is the most important quality in a Presidential candidate, Trump leads Clinton by more than 2:1. Among voters who say integrity is the most important quality, Clinton leads Trump by 18 points. Among voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the choice of a President, Clinton leads Trump by 15 points. Among voters who say the Supreme Court is the most important issue, Trump leads Clinton by 20 points. Of Clinton backers, 64% are voting "for Clinton," 35% are voting "against Trump." Of Trump backers, 59% are voting "for Trump," 38% are voting "against Clinton."

Inslee leads by 23 points in metropolitan Seattle, edges Bryant in Western WA, but trails Bryant by more than 2:1 in Eastern WA. Inslee leads by 11 among women, and more specifically leads by 15 points among suburban women. Bryant leads by 14 points among rural men, but trails by 14 points among urban men and by 4 points among suburban men. Inslee leads by 21 points among the youngest voters, but trails Bryant by 3 points among seniors. Of Trump supporters, 92% vote for Bryant. Of Clinton supporters, 88% vote for Inslee, 9% defect to Bryant.

Of voters who say the economy is the most important issue in the contest for Governor, Inslee edges Bryant 49% to 44%. Of voters who say education is most important in the Governor's race, Inslee leads by 52 points. Of voters who say taxes are most important, Bryant leads by 60 points.

Murray is positioned for reelection to her 5th term in the United States Senate, with a 33-point lead among urban women and a 23-point lead among suburban women. Vance leads by 10 points in military households and leads by 28 points in Eastern WA. Of those voting for the Republican Bryant for Governor, 84% vote for the Republican Vance for Senator, 13% cross-over for Murray. Of those who vote for the Democrat Inslee for Governor, 92% stay with the Democrat Murray for Senator.

In the election for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, a large number of undecided voters make the outcome uncertain. Among voters with a preference, Chris Reykdal edges Erin Jones 32% to 28%, but 41% of likely voters are not sure how they will vote for Superintendent. Among voters who say they have already returned a ballot, Reykdal and Jones are tied, 35% each. Too-close-to-call.

Initiative 1433, which would raise the minimum wage, leads 56% to 38% at this hour, with overwhelming support among early voters, tepid support among those who have not yet returned a ballot. 1433 leads by 35 points among high-school educated voters and by 35 points among lower-income voters. The measure is almost certain to pass.

Initiative 732, which would impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels, trails badly at this hour and is likely to be defeated. Republicans oppose 732 by nearly 6:1, conservatives oppose 732 by 7:1. Democrats favor 732 but only by 5:4.

Favorability Ratings:

* 32% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of President Barack Obama, 31% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
* 14% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of Clinton, 41% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.
* 12% of voters have an extremely favorable opinion of Trump, 51% have an extremely unfavorable opinion.

Context and Methodology:

SurveyUSA interviewed 800 state of Washington adults 10/31/16 through 11/02/16. All of the interviews for this survey were completed after the 10/28/16 announcement by the FBI that it had found State Department emails on a previously unknown electronic device. Of the adults interviewed, 734 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, just 2% say they will not vote in 2016 because they do not like any of the candidates on the ballot. 3% say they almost never vote in a Presidential election but will vote in 2016 because they are uniquely drawn to one of the candidates. Of the registered voters, 681 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already returned a ballot or to be certain to do so before polls close on 11/08/16. This research was conducted using blended sample, mixed mode. Respondents reachable on a home telephone (61% of likely voters) were interviewed on their home telephone in the recorded voice of a professional announcer. Respondents not reachable on a home telephone (39% of likely voters) were shown a questionnaire on the display of their smartphone, tablet or other electronic device. In 2012, Obama carried Washington state by 15 percentage points over Republican Mitt Romney. In 2008, Obama carried Washington by 17 points over Republican John McCain. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry carried Washington by 7 points over George W Bush. In 2000, Democrat Al Gore carried Washington by 5 points. The last Republican to win Washington was Ronald Reagan in 1984. In 2016, Washington has 12 electoral votes.
 
1The Presidential election is on Tuesday, November 8. Please tell me which of these 6 statements best describes you: One: I have already returned my ballot. Two: I always vote in Presidential elections, and will definitely vote in this year's presidential election. Three: I always vote in Presidential elections, but this year, I do not like the candidates, so I will not vote in the presidential election this year. Four: I'm not sure yet whether I will or will not vote this year. Five: I rarely vote in Presidential elections, but this year I will go out of my way to vote. Six: I don't vote in Presidential elections, and I won't vote this year.
734 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Already Returned My Ballot3751881886182125107143232296793750423643385866807913914655631087266132213951073548113661412088162126129244521441769712114711315188236130108257109256304611192561007320363506586494078612426136
Always Do / Will This Year287137150659684421611262285902873145523242512776127774663894540117122825023529553138114545011482205371181326211810379134621661161211617720324039137150816214440396669273565611418111
Always Do / Not This Year15967431114123015023211226304712--------2801878762744482410596911312336622531132052
Not Sure Yet 301516167622282280300386441318527834-------------62491661610551771218161413172561911722123984398056
Rarely Do / Will This Year19109676013615401921344123113344529674126576121161311076485104136910613154108441123631356215
Don't / Won't This Year8447200806208200110022000302-------------06232412410342506526233322010002222
Total734362372162197224152359376579156375359778710983110124111164302235106141219125115257341183161591032141242893361361152592305011082983251922592682093211634342852624572115046001153044311971493891109815117082821611414257262
Composition of Registered Voters100%49%51%22%27%31%21%49%51%79%21%51%49%11%12%15%11%15%17%15%22%41%32%14%19%30%17%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%31%68%15%41%44%27%36%37%29%45%23%60%40%36%64%29%70%84%16%41%59%27%20%53%15%13%21%23%11%11%22%19%6%8%36%
 
2In the election for President of the United States, do you vote for ...? (names rotated) Republican Donald Trump? Democrat Hillary Clinton? Libertarian Gary Johnson? Green Party candidate Jill Stein? Or one of the other candidates?
681 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Donald Trump (R)2571391193259996791166208491321257063722966113410788891598525701071522777712221020791041121453211610857901056410375179738616756193218316818974751093727554839366146371686
Hillary Clinton (D)34115818373951007416817327170213128186258411010491142148241051049503414415764511046282919921119842554112217677119136106158591851481102221082252805214120087422125651669228306153120141
Gary Johnson (L)25141189621781691213028103102211061341001300910313106885204101179881342051213916187187979348531129038
Jill Stein (G)11475412837474001331307300236002006202640438236542624565656838311933021334015
Other20911745412818391142634005140557100060110721164191010310798359611981261315591183923543477216
Undecided271116714602162073240764411714134140100122169310425832481269144811615121899182162256111144473459056
Total6813353461331842151493173645381433753067582987410511810815727722610413020112110825734118316159103214124287327136114251217462902733151652442581972951544152522394281924725591042674141841383581059213815876781481294045252
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%47%53%79%21%55%45%11%12%14%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%44%50%21%17%38%32%68%13%40%46%25%37%39%29%44%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%16%39%61%27%20%53%15%13%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%37%
 
3Is yours more a vote FOR Donald Trump, or more a vote AGAINST Hillary Clinton?
257 Trump VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 6.1 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
For Trump15388651430634744109120328865464735154309355356592761153062137154642141311506568851761743256614260431123742107361101301532121424763271531292518322224757
Against Clinton9851471827341945538117435522153513231375052830312398044013103028767928364157155033223440204330613541551977811535632924441010241914162922121028
Not Sure7070222257016221100042032100701022005001434151204212612416612533102010202001
Total2571391193259996791166208491321257063722966113410788891598525701071522777712221020791041121453211610857901056410375179738616756193218316818974751093727554839366146371686
Composition of Trump Voters100%54%46%12%23%39%26%35%65%81%19%51%49%27%25%28%11%3%2%1%52%42%3%34%35%23%3%2%100%0%42%0%20%10%30%28%92%4%8%32%43%43%57%13%45%42%23%36%42%25%41%30%71%29%34%66%22%77%87%13%27%73%29%29%42%14%11%21%19%15%14%24%18%14%6%33%
 
4Is yours more a vote FOR Hillary Clinton or more a vote AGAINST Donald Trump?
341 Clinton VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 5.2 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
For Clinton2189712136576560931251704815067121153779783531577165573610218231163226735141936811745216422761185374847097371229064147691421763475142572513535353957172028251895
Against Trump120596138373313744697236060065846302565955164831330120214022141111595319433189184556234649365921625644733780101176555301674201627331011322701144
Not Sure3220121133031000210102101111030101100311122022102121122122311201310021021002
Total34115818373951007416817327170213128186258411010491142148241051049503414415764511046282919921119842554112217677119136106158591851481102221082252805214120087422125651669228306153120141
Composition of Clinton Voters100%46%54%21%28%29%22%49%51%79%21%62%38%0%2%2%7%25%32%31%3%34%63%2%7%31%31%28%0%100%13%46%2%13%32%13%9%88%30%6%36%25%75%12%36%52%23%36%41%32%48%18%56%44%33%67%32%68%84%16%41%59%25%12%62%16%15%19%27%8%9%18%16%0%6%41%
 
5Which ONE of these qualities is more important than any other in casting your vote? Honesty? Likeability? Willingness to compromise? Experience in government? Experience creating jobs? Integrity? Willingness to stand one's ground? Determination? Or some other quality?
681 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Honesty183102813647515083100140439589263542241818146184324151541815107441830005133105493051546711543677348696360803411862731064912913743671164745913823433716184539132456
Likeability1579524488967914201544382245341100003268336510276763852875116911479331063140211125
Compromise431924127159192433102815323514875221532181010433000074831163111131517211092382011251711311427366192413426538123812102316
Experience In Government16163981652524168931293110754012103558521481102125049461157016100632114142477644012110549633527351752794644811048110139185610546229223282846111722260177
Experience Creating Jobs593524111323132435461335251318135351312151722135152600590231549632228233643224152122122421441521371146471016431513316514101381297219
Integrity103544923293713525093104854139171320111521502718182717182745000103282841492384227741441462538361754286436316924759094954312151793024161329216542
Stand One's Ground522922131815532203814232813511833518239168194538110000229371348261833425229231818131829212623193143525271115261261111451587416
Determination18109266481115310924123237743824110800007410827681157669488111861281115281074753351143136
Other4717301410131024233512222445677889211638149101526000098172374141730423201318151517112323172913334062027111323312107489122116
Total6813353461331842151493173645381433753067582987410511810815727722610413020112110825734118316159103214124287327136114251217462902733151652442581972951544152522394281924725591042674141841383581059213815876781481294045252
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%47%53%79%21%55%45%11%12%14%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%44%50%21%17%38%32%68%13%40%46%25%37%39%29%44%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%16%39%61%27%20%53%15%13%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%37%
 
6Which ONE issue is most important in choosing a President? Immigration? Terrorism? Education? The environment? The economy? Health care? The Supreme Court? Treatment of minorities? Or some other issue?
681 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Immigration492228981417173238113019999648318191115178233113272440030167161017321318171218161219103611202612333511153414102557910461095414
Terrorism592632514251419394810312881510576724221212181971341720994003616912212336831201621211724143721193994849919402017229810147810123517
Education48153318101272919371123251437101285202015171676341016380093227491434822181617151521122523202722264072721883278516398121115
Environment5125261315141027243912312001061614141222822710291416190110044415110942516301113258301127211435153338112427136336213176511110323
Economy214114100427759351199516648113101192932233635344891692339843927771105163232821408710936351136415021801144487807697371288482130721381763210810647371294432494818185437111486
Health Care48192915121210262242630183563716681722310151371332121155001725881312361121171717131420102523202713353810252314112369614456110414
Supreme Court12472528265436349010519665830132869142142433540262115217146332115280124724421264946761343672042582951398534318822971101012112413053181128232415281417859
Treatment Of Minorities307231095718121713141600149880141602117822537040042271128222171114799136131710201021237121883191831024410016
Other58342312142012263245133622669147671230139111812422232212090029194121324341026221521211721163918223517405072533191622981568817124617
Total6813353461331842151493173645381433753067582987410511810815727722610413020112110825734118316159103214124287327136114251217462902733151652442581972951544152522394281924725591042674141841383581059213815876781481294045252
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%47%53%79%21%55%45%11%12%14%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%44%50%21%17%38%32%68%13%40%46%25%37%39%29%44%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%16%39%61%27%20%53%15%13%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%37%
 
7Washington State will also elect a Governor and United States Senator. Will you fill out this portion of your ballot? Or leave this portion blank?
696 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 1.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Fill Out649318331120174209145294354516132355294707897699711210914826222197127192116104238326163156569620312028633213411324821043680263303154231248191282149396238227407181450534962503981731313441028913115176741391233540244
Leave Blank2416810733187177177411556251086373411101222363-----7189510798510313119169151781411681132641283366
Not Sure2391497511671854192533410710115933858324623422116178114107551141013815815184158851013651346244
Total69634335314018821815032836855114537532175841017610511911115928323010413420812211025734118316159103214124289336136115259223470972793171722482622013031564192632444381984815701072794171871443651079414216177791521314050254
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%20%27%31%22%47%53%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%14%40%46%25%36%38%29%44%23%61%39%36%64%29%71%84%16%40%60%27%21%52%15%14%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%36%
 
8In the election for Governor of Washington, do you vote for ...(names rotated) Republican Bill Bryant? Or Democrat Jay Inslee?
667 Likely Downballot VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Bill Bryant (R)28915213741741007411417422959141148697379398103143127138897801282222810514494187722890299011511617232131125591211027512478197851041786521424138100189778612643326261423670583517102
Jay Inslee (D)33616017568961026916417126768208128048278499106411820562510210096102914914264910944033610120127852484212416885105138107151631891401132161112172745314019589402075750678432326653023135
Undecided431330219102301233993434125940625447177110111533101160055181330131713201210131810172516261130357251814820310711377182510
Total66732534212918021314530935853013735830972819972101113109152271222981291991191062423301691585810020712228933613611525921445187271306163238251195293152403250233420188462550992654021801343531039213715677751421293744247
Composition of Likely Downballot Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%46%54%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%37%51%26%24%9%15%32%19%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%13%41%46%25%36%38%30%45%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%15%40%60%27%20%53%15%14%21%23%11%11%21%19%5%7%37%
 
9Which ONE issue is most important in choosing a Governor of Washington? Education funding? Taxes? Jobs and the economy? Traffic? The environment? Homelessness? Or some other issue?
667 Likely Downballot VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Education Funding1365878273542326174110268155610111429372617536211164338252099304732336212910113600331011542771947673574239834587435961171451843722761916324381524295968
Taxes115605516284129447188276253222734135554952103337317579215172283526902001150457118504619454731472681303873308188233778353050171423241313292391038
Jobs/Economy259135124578073501361232025812613432293428384644601009035548243381041195464284211349115127002598917126114119759487811145714611088168811742094511114960601394337605430275842191486
Traffic422419613141019243762220459477610201267148615211283697201800011314201812161511211123201032734384182583317410117410102216
Environment361521611127171931523130314105133151806571813051308163320005316102081213111581618102411243041323157136541134780118
Homelessness31102110412514162381515233256851015511337717671472101800011201111815861289131710209212911614832056174628057
Other482424891912173139928206476877921148811126162311121851021210002027723181516161514182621182914333981929168245108611711101414
Total66732534212918021314530935853013735830972819972101113109152271222981291991191062423301691585810020712228933613611525921445187271306163238251195293152403250233420188462550992654021801343531039213715677751421293744247
Composition of Likely Downballot Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%46%54%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%37%51%26%24%9%15%32%19%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%13%41%46%25%36%38%30%45%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%15%40%60%27%20%53%15%14%21%23%11%11%21%19%5%7%37%
 
10In the election for United States Senator from Washington State, do you vote for ...(names rotated) Republican Chris Vance? Or Democrat Patty Murray?
667 Likely Downballot VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Chris Vance (R)272147125466693661121592175513313968657534108213311910878969119213191048424476712432125841161121593612111460109986811673193749517165199230349118078811134227595741336751361793
Patty Murray (D)357163194671051077717218428076220137213102988104105141272097311121069520306491481449120483830810428128932624013418187117144117162651931551212271102382895814820988452245958709229366364122145
Undecided391623168132241533653423138311525239182396162171037663169301117111612101015131721162213253172613148172878761113059
Total66732534212918021314530935853013735830972819972101113109152271222981291991191062423301691585810020712228933613611525921445187271306163238251195293152403250233420188462550992654021801343531039213715677751421293744247
Composition of Likely Downballot Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%46%54%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%37%51%26%24%9%15%32%19%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%13%41%46%25%36%38%30%45%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%15%40%60%27%20%53%15%14%21%23%11%11%21%19%5%7%37%
 
11In the election for State Superintendent of Public Instruction, do you vote for ...(names rotated) Chris Reykdal? Or Erin Jones?
667 Likely Downballot VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Chris Reykdal213115983450725884129177361258828273123323234558666354465402795103534720296644106105593285781352583105437888707760146637913050158185246714659541004426334434264938181590
Erin Jones1849192383760497510914340125591321231626433734658024315336375311450551523543168113453560551272272884850815492281156454125531251532664120452711228264547171140267971
Undecided27011915157938139151120209611081633133443342383863119763954814342951146655224887471141173149115811893911711273110837112364142123100165851792124913513676531413140586526385466112186
Total66732534212918021314530935853013735830972819972101113109152271222981291991191062423301691585810020712228933613611525921445187271306163238251195293152403250233420188462550992654021801343531039213715677751421293744247
Composition of Likely Downballot Voters100%49%51%19%27%32%22%46%54%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%37%51%26%24%9%15%32%19%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%13%41%46%25%36%38%30%45%23%62%38%36%64%29%71%84%15%40%60%27%20%53%15%14%21%23%11%11%21%19%5%7%37%
 
12There are many initiatives on the Washington state ballot this year. We are going to ask about 2 of them. First ... On Initative 1433, which would raise the minimum wage to $13.50 and would require employers to offer paid sick-leave, do you vote Yes? Or No?
696 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Yes3871842028810511381193194303832341531227213178961023913019914531219494622787513022531165169283883014810827659149177108131139125165752181601262521282503037217121696602316263778938376961830143
No267139128386796661051622184912714058507434221871091312683746922151795493283543817320145427993107160251181244910311057126731857797165512082303179189777411535226165373672582914100
Undecided4219231417833111301214285761164112225671861169153271611986618834131315151412191281526202119223643012141018109572610123711
Not Voting000000000000000000000000000000000000-----00000000000000000000000000000000000
Total69634335314018821815032836855114537532175841017610511911115928323010413420812211025734118316159103214124289336136115259223470972793171722482622013031564192632444381984815701072794171871443651079414216177791521314050254
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%20%27%31%22%47%53%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%14%40%46%25%36%38%29%44%23%61%39%36%64%29%71%84%16%40%60%27%21%52%15%14%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%36%
 
13On initiative 732, which would impose a carbon emission tax on the sale or use of certain fossil fuels, do you vote Yes, to impose the tax? Or do you vote No, to leave the existing system in place?
696 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Yes23210712650657146115117190421537981411195255652282119122362656527173427710455940391766419815917227801256565968010141135917615073152186409114160331393941475419224043312103
No39321118269921369616123230885201192675783494352361241758889100115473521413612766464813280233126618915215024354166172821601431011691022541321312541022813305413825511491188623982875547102733630136
Undecided6824442030117501750181949113771012913242121130910143115162102341633107261553143320232421193313283935322245511449191119386131419498161716
Not Voting3121100212021001001101100010210110000100003200201111211202301221000010110010
Total69634335314018821815032836855114537532175841017610511911115928323010413420812211025734118316159103214124289336136115259223470972793171722482622013031564192632444381984815701072794171871443651079414216177791521314050254
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%20%27%31%22%47%53%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%14%40%46%25%36%38%29%44%23%61%39%36%64%29%71%84%16%40%60%27%21%52%15%14%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%36%
 
14Is your opinion of Barack Obama... extremely favorable? Favorable? Unfavorable? Or extremely unfavorable?
696 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Extremely Favorable225971285059615510911517550148772231046678845815471258677452063199227643211203731173551682680117556896801003712395741447314618533911345624144423840601225253321195
Favorable170848647544822101701363585855119215048211580695216344311512223577365813311133415704312730667342675944763589785810954113130359377472895212335412015453531858
Unfavorable74353912242115373754202549613271771019511925288143831489241150111210282746934312526232432155221363719556483142241832111317156925263623
Extremely Unfavorable21612394284785577514217839114103615660273321179057973572318839504129636719081675849112531949149828050926614665691424616118427581595870883218504237295536301575
Not Sure11473431749348223100044033211723111517103374055264343836556656514612132122204
Total69634335314018821815032836855114537532175841017610511911115928323010413420812211025734118316159103214124289336136115259223470972793171722482622013031564192632444381984815701072794171871443651079414216177791521314050254
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%20%27%31%22%47%53%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%14%40%46%25%36%38%29%44%23%61%39%36%64%29%71%84%16%40%60%27%21%52%15%14%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%36%
 
15Is your opinion of Donald Trump ...
696 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Extremely Favorable844936101638212659701453323417141214151276382218308033201681722695827333451192738182836233518542823591765748206426233516718178101710201131
Favorable1628577254352426894129337884334350165807771847663584146668131205041139131644687785179055406159466346115446793401171322657105425168242233302720393216845
Unfavorable8347362528171353305726285541620910136204020102035752331348714301144247203019641933311743212436155130344728526219443919184616720157823173925
Extremely Unfavorable3551591967797107731751802847121214337133888931031014019682511510399329945151459113493229410422124912624012518894114140105167711911561162311102372955115320298472115055719634377168120149
Not Sure113924417510148114101015111512624111414012538245435335744839734715502032414014
Total69634335314018821815032836855114537532175841017610511911115928323010413420812211025734118316159103214124289336136115259223470972793171722482622013031564192632444381984815701072794171871443651079414216177791521314050254
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%20%27%31%22%47%53%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%14%40%46%25%36%38%29%44%23%61%39%36%64%29%71%84%16%40%60%27%21%52%15%14%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%36%
 
16Is your opinion of Hillary Clinton...
696 Likely & Actual VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationParty AffiliationIdeologyPOTUS VotePOTUS QualityPOTUS IssueGovernor VoteGovernor IssueMilitary HousehoEducationIncomeUrbanityMarried?Kids Under 18Live in WAParents Born U.SCell Phone / LanRegionUrbanSuburbanRuralIndependentStrong RHS EducaCollege
Credibility Interval: ± 3.8 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteNon-WhitYesNoStrong RRepublicIndy LeaIndependIndy LeaDemocratStrong DRepublicIndependDemocratVery ConSomewhatModerateSomewhatVery LibTrumpClintonHonestyExperienExperienIntegritEconomySupreme BryantInsleeEducatioTaxesJobsYesNoHigh SchSome Col4-year C< $40K$40K - $> $80KUrbanSuburbanRuralYesNoYesNo<20 Yrs20 + YrsYesNoCell PhoLandlineW WAE WAMetro SeMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenWomenMenMenWhites
Extremely Favorable953857132427313758722368272212142647416726816382519119441826166872763329641134492530344232145832236725647515286821146018241022866112337
Favorable21010210845596640105106170401288204318537554574128215745660420419101527652916176661170441662177112437291531044211195721356713917629901205730124312145592021413301094
Unfavorable9446493428239623371233658417121325125205117421408161937261252135834441216422570223239304024384312504439554252662765292218542216192447282311430
Extremely Unfavorable283153130427299681151682295313914468618540974129133109090741572326116347458570227242880110121161391281157010110764122821938410517358216244318819584781213629675542407558352192
Not Sure14595521104955101013502192214522331113154315410382455437776849958644704113427111
Total69634335314018821815032836855114537532175841017610511911115928323010413420812211025734118316159103214124289336136115259223470972793171722482622013031564192632444381984815701072794171871443651079414216177791521314050254
Composition of Likely & Actual Voters100%49%51%20%27%31%22%47%53%79%21%54%46%11%12%15%11%15%17%16%23%41%33%15%19%30%18%16%38%50%27%24%9%15%31%18%43%50%20%17%39%32%68%14%40%46%25%36%38%29%44%23%61%39%36%64%29%71%84%16%40%60%27%21%52%15%14%20%23%11%11%22%19%6%7%36%