Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16454
 
CA-19 Voters Show No Favorites in Race to Replace Radanovich: In primary elections for US House of Representatives in California's 19th Congressional District today, 04/20/2010, 20 days until early voting begins, likely voters in both Republican and Democratic primaries are divided over who they will nominate to run in the general election, according to this latest exclusive KFSN-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

In the Republican primary, state senator Jeff Denham and former Fresno mayor Jim Patterson are even -- Denham at 27%, Patterson at 26%. Richard Pombo, who represented the neighboring 11th Congressional District for 7 terms, gets 16%. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one month ago, the contest is unchanged. 25% of likely voters are today undecided.

In the Democratic primary, voters are less focused, with 56% of likely voters in a Democratic primary today undecided, and three candidates within 8 points of one another. Doctor and lawyer Loraine Goodwin gets 18% today; real estate consultant John Estrada gets 15%; retired actor Les Marsden gets 10%. Compared to an identical poll released one month ago, Estrada has lost ground, and his opponents have gained, but with more than half of likely voters undecided, this movement may not be significant. Estrada runs twice as strongly among Hispanic voters as he does in the general population; Goodwin runs three times as strongly among black voters as she does in the general population.

California voters who decline to state a party preference may vote in either party's primary: 5% of those who say they are likely to vote in the Republican primary and 4% of those likely to vote in the Democratic primary are "DTS" voters.

 
Filtering: 1,650 registered voters were interviewed by SurveyUSA 04/16/10 through 04/19/10, using Registration Based Sample (RBS) from Aristotle in Washington DC. Of the registered voters, 769 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican primary; 412 were determined to be likely to vote in the Democratic primary. Incumbent Republican George Radanovich is not seeking re-election.
 
If the Republican Primary for US House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jeff Denham? Jim Patterson? Richard Pombo? Or, Larry Westerlund?
769 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.6%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratDTSConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Denham27%27%27%20%25%25%34%23%29%27%**26%27%26%**34%27%31%**25%28%26%28%28%26%29%26%29%30%25%
Patterson26%26%26%26%25%25%28%26%26%25%**30%28%26%**22%26%26%**28%24%29%23%21%26%25%25%27%28%25%
Pombo16%18%15%16%14%20%14%15%17%16%**14%22%17%**12%16%17%**17%16%15%16%20%18%13%19%11%15%17%
Westerlund6%7%5%4%6%6%7%5%6%5%**11%2%6%**6%4%11%**8%5%6%6%7%5%9%5%8%3%7%
Undecided25%23%27%33%30%24%18%31%21%26%**19%20%25%**26%27%15%**22%27%25%27%24%26%24%24%24%24%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%53%47%14%24%34%28%39%61%83%2%10%6%95%0%5%75%19%4%46%54%57%19%23%68%29%59%37%30%70%
 
 
If the Democratic Primary for US House of Representatives were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) John Estrada? Loraine Goodwin? Or, Les Marsden?
412 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?Income
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.9%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicAsian/OtRepublicDemocratDTSConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50K
Estrada15%17%14%28%16%13%14%20%13%12%4%34%18%**15%**16%15%16%12%19%18%15%13%19%15%16%16%16%16%
Goodwin18%17%19%17%22%21%13%20%17%18%30%14%12%**19%**14%17%23%22%15%21%16%16%22%17%21%17%20%18%
Marsden10%12%9%5%14%9%11%11%10%12%9%4%15%**10%**8%14%7%9%11%9%13%9%7%11%11%9%8%11%
Undecided56%53%58%50%49%57%62%49%59%58%57%48%55%**56%**63%54%54%57%56%52%56%61%52%57%53%58%56%55%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%40%60%11%21%37%31%32%68%67%10%18%5%0%96%4%18%43%36%48%52%38%26%37%28%69%40%57%42%58%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.