Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13953
 
Photo Finish For Pearce & Wilson in NM GOP Primary for Domenici's Senate Seat: On the eve of New Mexico's Republican Primary for United States Senate, Heather Wilson and Steve Pearce are effectively tied, according to SurveyUSA's third and final tracking poll conducted exclusively for KOB-TV in Albuquerque. Today, it's Pearce 48%, Wilson 47%, within the survey's 4.5 percentage point margin of sampling error. The overall results are effectively unchanged from an identical SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago. But there is movement within the demographic groups: Two weeks ago, among men, Pearce led by 11; among women, Wilson led by 5. Today, the two are essentially tied in both groups -- a 16 point Gender Gap erased in two weeks. Regional turnout will decide the contest. In Bernalillo County, where Albuquerque is located, and where Wilson is the representative to the U.S. House from New Mexico's 1st Congressional District, Wilson leads by 26. In the rest of New Mexico, Pearce leads by 19. SurveyUSA's turnout model shows that 40% of likely voters are from Bernalillo County. If Bernalillo County votes in smaller numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Pearce wins. If Bernalillo County votes in larger numbers than SurveyUSA here forecasts, Wilson wins. Two weeks ago, Pearce led by 9 among voters age 18 to 49; today, he and Wilson are tied. The race was and remains tied among voters age 50+. White voters narrowly lean toward Wilson; Hispanic voters favor Pearce by 8 points, down from 16 points two weeks ago. Among conservatives, Pearce leads by 13; among moderates, Wilson leads by 31. Among the 28% of voters who have already cast their ballots in the closed Republican primary, Wilson leads by 1; among those who will vote at the precinct on Primary Day, Pearce leads by 3. Early voting began May 17 and ended May 31.
 
General Election: Democrat Udall Remains Far Ahead Of Either Republican: In a hypothetical General Election for U.S. Senator from New Mexico today, 06/02/08, Democrat Tom Udall defeats either Republican Pearce or Republican Wilson by a nearly identical margin. Today, against Pearce, Udall wins 60% to 35%. Against Wilson, Udall wins 60% to 36%. Udall leads among both men and women, young and old, white and Hispanic, regardless of opponent. 1 in 4 Republicans cross over and vote Democrat, as do 1 in 3 conservatives; 1 in 10 Democrats cross over to vote Republican, as do 1 in 10 liberals. Wilson is 8 points stronger than Pearce in Bernalillo County, but still loses there to Udall, 56% to 41%. The Senate seat is currently held by Republican Pete Domenici, who is not seeking re-election. A Democratic win would be a take-away, and add to the Democrat's current majority in the United States Senate.
 
Filtering: 2,200 New Mexico adults were interviewed by SurveyUSA 05/30/08 through 06/01/08. Of them, 1,869 were registered to vote. Of them, 498 have already voted or were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the Republican Primary. These actual and likely Primary voters were included in the Primary Poll portion of the questionnaire. General Election hypothetical match-ups were asked of all registered voters. Republican U.S. Senator Pete Domenici announced 10/04/07 his intention not to seek a 7th term. On 05/30/08, as interviews for this final tracking poll began, Domenici announced his support for Wilson.
 
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? Steve Pearce? Or Heather Wilson?
498 Likely And Actual GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAlready Voted in GOP Pri
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.5%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBernalilRest of Actual VLikely VNot Voti
Pearce48%49%47%47%48%48%49%48%49%47%51%48%****54%33%**34%57%49%48%**
Wilson47%47%46%44%45%49%47%45%48%48%43%47%****41%64%**60%38%50%45%**
Other2%2%2%0%4%1%1%2%1%1%1%2%****1%1%**2%2%0%2%**
Undecided3%2%5%10%3%2%3%5%2%3%5%3%****3%2%**3%4%1%4%**
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%
Composition of Likely And Actual GOP Primary Voters100%56%44%14%29%30%28%42%58%75%17%100%0%0%62%27%4%40%60%28%72%0%
 
 
if the GENERAL election for United States Senator were today, and the only two candidates on the ballot were Republican Steve Pearce and Democrat Tom Udall, who would you vote for?
1869 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAlready Voted in GOP Pri
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBernalilRest of Actual VLikely VNot Voti
Pearce (R)35%41%29%33%37%35%34%35%34%43%22%68%10%38%65%26%10%33%36%68%69%23%
Udall (D)60%55%65%59%58%62%62%58%62%53%73%26%86%50%32%69%87%60%60%27%26%72%
Undecided5%4%6%9%5%3%4%7%3%5%5%5%4%11%3%5%3%6%4%5%5%5%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%18%30%29%24%48%52%58%33%38%54%8%31%34%18%37%63%8%19%73%
 
 
What if the only two candidates were Republican Heather Wilson and Democrat Tom Udall?
1869 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyRegionAlready Voted in GOP Pri
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.3%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteHispanicRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalBernalilRest of Actual VLikely VNot Voti
Wilson (R)36%40%33%32%39%36%38%36%37%43%24%68%14%40%63%32%12%41%34%80%65%24%
Udall (D)60%56%63%63%57%61%60%59%60%53%72%28%83%54%33%66%85%56%62%16%29%72%
Undecided4%4%4%6%4%3%2%5%3%4%3%4%3%7%5%2%3%3%4%4%5%3%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%18%30%29%24%48%52%58%33%38%54%8%31%34%18%37%63%8%19%73%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.