Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17086
Minnesota: 3rd Party Horner Complicates Battle for Open Governor's Seat; Dayton and Emmer Effectively Even: In an election for Minnesota Governor today, 09/15/10, DFL candidate Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer finish effectively even, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, according to this latest exclusive KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.

Today, Dayton gets 38%, Emmer 36%; Dayton's nominal 2-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant. But: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner today gets 18% of the vote, stronger yet among older, more reliable voters, complicating the calculus either major-party campaign needs to capture the open seat. Among men, Emmer leads Dayton by 11 points; among women, Dayton leads Emmer by 13 -- a 24-point gender gap. 1 in 5 men and 1 in 6 women vote for the Independence Party candidate Horner. Dayton has an edge among older voters, but Horner gets 22% among those 50+. Emmer and Dayton each take 3 of 4 votes from members of their own parties, with Horner taking 14% of Republican and 13% of Democrat votes today. Among the 1 in 3 voters who are independent, the 3 candidates are effectively even, separated from one another by 3 points. Dayton, who served as a US Senator from 2001 to 2006, leads by 14 points in Northeastern Minnesota; Emmer, a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, has a small advantage in the southern portion of MN. Elsewhere, Dayton and Emmer tie, with Horner receiving 14% to 22% of the vote.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Minnesota adults 09/12/10 through 09/14/10. Of them, 926 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 656 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 7 weeks from today. Incumbent Governor Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking a 3rd term.
[Candidate names rotated]
If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate?
656 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RaceParty AffiliationIdeologyTea Party MovementCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalFavorablUnfavoraNeutralNo OpiniYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KTwin CitSouth MNWest MNNortheas
Emmer (R)36%42%30%46%38%32%30%41%31%36%******72%7%30%66%26%4%73%4%36%34%36%36%36%44%27%56%19%40%32%31%39%38%33%39%30%
Dayton (DFL)38%33%43%30%39%40%39%36%40%37%******11%74%30%14%43%74%3%76%29%38%38%39%37%36%44%24%51%32%46%44%35%37%37%37%44%
Horner (IP)18%20%15%9%16%22%22%13%22%19%******14%13%27%13%23%15%20%18%19%14%20%16%20%14%19%12%22%20%15%16%19%17%22%14%20%
Composition of Likely Voters100%51%49%17%33%29%22%50%50%92%2%3%3%33%33%29%35%42%17%29%33%25%13%49%51%51%28%21%47%51%49%48%45%55%57%14%14%15%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.