| Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #17086 |
| Minnesota: 3rd Party Horner Complicates Battle for Open Governor's Seat; Dayton and Emmer Effectively Even: In an election for Minnesota Governor today, 09/15/10, DFL candidate Mark Dayton and Republican Tom Emmer finish effectively even, within the survey's theoretical margin of sampling error, according to this latest exclusive KSTP-TV poll conducted by SurveyUSA.
Today, Dayton gets 38%, Emmer 36%; Dayton's nominal 2-point advantage may or may not be statistically significant. But: Independence Party candidate Tom Horner today gets 18% of the vote, stronger yet among older, more reliable voters, complicating the calculus either major-party campaign needs to capture the open seat. Among men, Emmer leads Dayton by 11 points; among women, Dayton leads Emmer by 13 -- a 24-point gender gap. 1 in 5 men and 1 in 6 women vote for the Independence Party candidate Horner. Dayton has an edge among older voters, but Horner gets 22% among those 50+. Emmer and Dayton each take 3 of 4 votes from members of their own parties, with Horner taking 14% of Republican and 13% of Democrat votes today. Among the 1 in 3 voters who are independent, the 3 candidates are effectively even, separated from one another by 3 points. Dayton, who served as a US Senator from 2001 to 2006, leads by 14 points in Northeastern Minnesota; Emmer, a member of the Minnesota House of Representatives, has a small advantage in the southern portion of MN. Elsewhere, Dayton and Emmer tie, with Horner receiving 14% to 22% of the vote. |
| Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,000 Minnesota adults 09/12/10 through 09/14/10. Of them, 926 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 656 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 11/02/10 general election, 7 weeks from today. Incumbent Governor Republican Tim Pawlenty is not seeking a 3rd term. |
 | [Candidate names rotated] If the election for Minnesota Governor were today, who would you vote for? Republican Tom Emmer? DFL candidate Mark Dayton? Independence Party candidate Tom Horner? Or some other candidate? |
| 656 Likely Voters | All | Gender | Age | <50 / 50+ | Race | Party Affiliation | Ideology | Tea Party Movement | College Grad | Attend Religious Service | Abortion | Own a Gun? | Income | Region | ||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Margin of Sampling Error: ± 3.9% | Male | Female | 18-34 | 35-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | 18-49 | 50+ | White | Black | Hispanic | Other | Republic | Democrat | Independ | Conserva | Moderate | Liberal | Favorabl | Unfavora | Neutral | No Opini | Yes | No | Regularl | Occasion | Almost N | Pro-life | Pro-choi | Yes | No | < $50K | > $50K | Twin Cit | South MN | West MN | Northeas | |
| Emmer (R) | 36% | 42% | 30% | 46% | 38% | 32% | 30% | 41% | 31% | 36% | ** | ** | ** | 72% | 7% | 30% | 66% | 26% | 4% | 73% | 4% | 36% | 34% | 36% | 36% | 36% | 44% | 27% | 56% | 19% | 40% | 32% | 31% | 39% | 38% | 33% | 39% | 30% |
| Dayton (DFL) | 38% | 33% | 43% | 30% | 39% | 40% | 39% | 36% | 40% | 37% | ** | ** | ** | 11% | 74% | 30% | 14% | 43% | 74% | 3% | 76% | 29% | 38% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 36% | 44% | 24% | 51% | 32% | 46% | 44% | 35% | 37% | 37% | 37% | 44% |
| Horner (IP) | 18% | 20% | 15% | 9% | 16% | 22% | 22% | 13% | 22% | 19% | ** | ** | ** | 14% | 13% | 27% | 13% | 23% | 15% | 20% | 18% | 19% | 14% | 20% | 16% | 20% | 14% | 19% | 12% | 22% | 20% | 15% | 16% | 19% | 17% | 22% | 14% | 20% |
| Other | 5% | 3% | 7% | 10% | 3% | 4% | 4% | 5% | 4% | 5% | ** | ** | ** | 1% | 5% | 9% | 3% | 6% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 9% | 9% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 4% | 8% | 4% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 5% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 6% | 2% |
| Undecided | 4% | 3% | 5% | 5% | 3% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 4% | ** | ** | ** | 2% | 1% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 2% | 3% | 1% | 7% | 5% | 2% | 5% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 3% | 3% | 4% | 5% | 3% | 3% | 7% | 4% | 4% |
| Total | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| Composition of Likely Voters | 100% | 51% | 49% | 17% | 33% | 29% | 22% | 50% | 50% | 92% | 2% | 3% | 3% | 33% | 33% | 29% | 35% | 42% | 17% | 29% | 33% | 25% | 13% | 49% | 51% | 51% | 28% | 21% | 47% | 51% | 49% | 48% | 45% | 55% | 57% | 14% | 14% | 15% |