Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #14396
Women, Suburban DC Voters Help Obama Find Breathing Room on Virginia Battlefield: In an election for President of the United States in Virginia today, 09/22/08, 6 weeks from Election Day, Democrat Barack Obama edges Republican John McCain, 51% to 45%, according to this latest SurveyUSA poll conducted for WDBJ-TV in Roanoke, WJLA-TV in Washington DC, WTVR-TV in Richmond, and WJHL-TV in the Tri-Cities. Compared to an identical SurveyUSA poll released one week ago, Obama is up 1 point; McCain is down 1 point; compared to a SurveyUSA poll two weeks ago, Obama is up 4, McCain is down 4.

Since 1952, Virginia has voted Republican 13 times and Democrat only once, in 1964. Today: In the Washington DC suburbs, Obama now polls at 59% and leads McCain by 21 points. Obama leads by 10 in Southeast VA and by 4 in Central VA. McCain's regional advantage is confined to the Shenandoah, where he is 14 points atop Obama. Among women, Obama led by 6 points before Sarah Palin was named to the GOP ticket, now leads by 16. McCain continues to lead among voters older than McCain. Obama continues to lead among voters younger than Obama. But among voters in between, McCain's once 10-point advantage is now a 3-point deficit. Among college educated voters, Obama has gained 6 points and McCain has lost 5 points in the past 2 weeks. Among lower-income voters, Obama's advantage has increased by 17 points in the past 6 weeks.

McCain holds 87% of the GOP base. Obama holds 91% of the Democrat base. Independents split. McCain holds 83% of Conservatives. Obama holds 86% of Liberals. But: Obama leads by 28 points among Moderates, and on that Virginia battlefield, the contest may be decided.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 900 Virginia adults 09/19/08 through 09/21/08. Of the adults, 818 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 716 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely voters in the 11/04/08 general election. Virginia has 13 Electoral College votes. George W. Bush carried Virginia by 8 points in both 2004 and 2000.
If the election for President were today, would you vote for ... (choices rotated) Republican John McCain? Or, Democrat Barack Obama?
716 Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceParty AffiliationIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionChange Your MindIncomeRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 3.7 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiCould ChMind Mad< $50K> $50KShenandoNortheasSoutheasCentral
McCain (R)45%50%39%38%45%48%49%42%49%42%51%47%55%14%****87%8%48%83%34%13%43%47%54%38%35%69%29%46%46%38%50%54%38%43%45%
Obama (D)51%46%55%55%51%49%47%53%48%52%43%50%40%86%****10%91%45%14%62%86%54%48%43%59%59%26%68%35%53%58%46%40%59%53%49%
Composition of Likely Voters100%49%51%24%33%27%16%57%43%52%7%41%73%18%4%5%33%38%22%30%38%12%55%45%49%29%22%43%54%13%85%28%72%24%28%20%28%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.