Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #13811
Home-Stretch, NC Republican Governor Primary, Smith Now Catches McCrory; Contest Could Go Either Way: In a Republican Primary for Governor of North Carolina today, 04/29/08, one week until votes are counted, State Senator Fred Smith has momentum, and effectively catches Charlotte Mayor Pat McCrory, who has led since entering the race in January, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for WTVD-TV Raleigh. Today, it's McCrory 36%, Smith 32%, within the survey's 4.9 percentage point margin of sampling error. 20% of likely voters are undecided, and whom they chose, in the final few days of the campaign, will determine the winner. Smith's rise began in February. In the 5 tracking polls SurveyUSA has released since then, Smith has polled at 16%, 18%, 19%, 24% and today 32%. Among women, McCrory last week led by 19; today, McCrory leads by 1. Among Conservatives, who make-up two-thirds of likely voters, McCrory last week led by 5; today, Smith leads by 5, a 10 point swing to Smith. McCrory continues to dominate among Moderates. In Charlotte -- where McCrory is mayor -- and in the western portion of the state, McCrory holds his 2:1 lead over Smith. In Raleigh and Greensboro, Smith now leads by 4, the first time he has led in that region since March. In southern and coastal North Carolina, where Smith has led since January and where McCrory has never led, Smith now leads by nearly 4:1.
Filtering: 2,100 state of NC adults were interviewed 04/26/08 through 04/28/08. Of them, 1,796 were registered to vote. Of them, 411 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote or to have already voted in the Republican primary. One-stop early voting began on 04/17/08 and continues through 05/03/08. The primary is on 05/06/08.
If the Republican Primary for Governor were today, would you vote for ...(names rotated) Bill Graham? Bob Orr? Pat McCrory? Or Fred Smith?
411 Actual & Likely VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+AgeRaceAlready Voted?Party AffiliationIdeologyRegion
Credibility Interval: ± 4.9 pct pointsMaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+< Obama> McCain> In BetWhiteBlackAlready Likely VRepublicDemocratUnaffiliConservaModerateLiberalCharlottRaleigh South &
Composition of Actual & Likely Voters100%56%44%14%35%31%20%49%51%39%11%50%94%3%1%99%93%0%7%65%23%3%40%44%16%
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.