Results of SurveyUSA Election Poll #16314
 
10 Weeks from KY Senate Primaries, Rand Paul Atop GOP Rivals; Dan Mongiardo Atop Democratic Rivals:

In a Republican Primary for US Senate today, 03/07/10, 10 weeks from the vote, Rand Paul defeats Trey Grayson 42% to 27%, according to this exclusive Louisville Courier-Journal Bluegrass / WHAS-TV Poll conducted by SurveyUSA. Paul, an eye surgeon, political activist, and son of Texas Republican Congressman Ron Paul, is ahead among all demographic groups and in all parts of the state. Grayson, Kentucky's Secretary of State, leads Paul only among those primary voters who do not own guns. 19% of likely primary voters today are undecided; 4 other candidates on the Republican ballot combine to take 11% of the vote.

In a Democratic primary for US Senate today, Dan Mongiardo defeats Jack Conway 45% to 27%. Mongiardo, Kentucky's Lieutenant Governor, leads by 2:1 among those age 50+, and by 3:1 among those 65+. Mongiardo leads in much of the state; Conway is ahead in greater Louisville, and competitive among younger voters. 19% of likely voters are undecided; 9% vote for one of three other candidates on the ballot.

 
2010 General Election Jump Ball: After asking Republican likely primary voters which Republican they will vote for in the primary, and after asking Democratic likely primary voters which Democrat they will vote for in the primary, SurveyUSA asked all registered KY voters, regardless of party affiliation or likeliness to vote in a primary, to think ahead to the general election in November. Today, 43% of registered Kentucky voters say they will vote for the Republican US Senate candidate in November; 42% say they will vote for the Democratic candidate. 16% today say they are undecided, including 29% of independents.
 
Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 2,000 KY adults 03/01/10 through 03/03/10. Of them, 1,800 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 454 were determined by SurveyUSA to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 GOP Primary; 590 were determined to be likely to vote in the 05/18/10 Democratic primary. Incumbent Republican US Senator Jim Bunning is not seeking re-election.
 
If the Republican Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Trey Grayson? Rand Paul? Bill Johnson? Gurley Martin? Jon Scribner? Or John Stephenson?
454 Likely GOP Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.7%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Grayson27%28%26%32%26%25%27%28%26%28%******27%****27%31%**30%24%26%30%24%28%23%24%38%22%30%21%28%31%25%
Paul42%45%38%49%36%48%41%39%45%42%******42%****45%41%**43%42%43%41%42%44%37%47%31%40%44%50%40%40%40%
Johnson5%7%4%8%8%1%5%8%2%5%******5%****8%0%**6%5%5%6%5%5%6%6%5%5%5%8%4%7%2%
Martin3%3%3%4%3%3%1%3%2%3%******3%****3%2%**2%3%2%1%6%2%5%3%2%2%3%0%2%3%5%
Scribner1%1%2%0%1%2%2%1%2%1%******1%****1%2%**1%2%2%2%0%1%3%1%2%2%1%0%2%2%2%
Stephenson2%2%3%0%4%2%2%3%2%3%******2%****2%6%**3%2%3%1%3%1%7%2%3%4%2%1%3%4%1%
Undecided19%14%26%7%21%20%22%17%21%19%******19%****16%18%**15%22%19%18%20%19%18%18%19%25%15%20%21%13%25%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely GOP Primary Voters100%56%44%14%40%27%19%54%46%96%1%0%2%100%0%0%68%24%3%44%56%71%19%10%78%20%71%26%38%62%22%24%33%21%
 
 
If the Democratic Primary for United States Senate were today, who would you vote for? (candidate names rotated) Jack Conway? Dan Mongiardo? James Buckmaster? Darlene Price? Or Maurice Sweeney?
590 Likely Democratic Primary VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 4.1%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Conway27%30%26%34%32%28%19%33%24%27%28%******27%**25%27%33%33%25%25%27%37%23%32%27%31%25%32%14%42%29%13%
Mongiardo45%44%45%42%39%44%53%40%48%45%43%******45%**38%48%52%44%45%46%46%35%43%46%44%46%43%46%53%34%43%59%
Buckmaster3%3%2%0%2%4%2%1%3%3%0%******3%**5%2%0%1%3%2%2%4%4%1%3%2%3%2%5%1%2%3%
Price4%3%6%3%6%3%5%5%4%4%6%******4%**4%4%4%3%5%4%3%6%3%5%3%5%6%2%6%2%4%7%
Sweeney2%3%1%0%3%2%2%2%2%1%8%******2%**2%2%2%2%2%2%4%1%3%1%2%1%1%3%1%4%2%0%
Undecided19%18%20%21%17%20%18%19%19%20%15%******19%**26%17%10%17%20%21%17%16%24%14%21%15%21%15%21%17%20%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%0%100%0%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Likely Democratic Primary Voters100%48%52%12%26%38%25%37%63%90%9%0%1%0%100%0%27%49%18%37%63%58%26%16%47%50%60%37%49%51%21%30%34%15%
 
 
If the General Eelection for United States Senator from Kentucky were today, would you vote for (choices rotated) The Republican candidate? Or The Democratic candidate?
1800 Registered VotersAllGenderAge<50 / 50+RacePartyIdeologyCollege GradAttend Religious ServiceAbortionOwn a Gun?IncomeRegion
Margin of Sampling Error: ± 2.4%MaleFemale18-3435-4950-6465+18-4950+WhiteBlackHispanicOtherRepublicDemocratIndependConservaModerateLiberalYesNoRegularlOccasionAlmost NPro-lifePro-choiYesNo< $50K> $50KWestern LouisvilNorth CeEastern
Republican Candidate43%49%37%42%48%38%41%46%39%44%18%****77%16%35%69%30%14%51%38%48%39%32%55%25%48%34%35%51%41%40%47%41%
Democratic Candidate42%38%45%43%36%44%46%39%45%40%72%****8%69%35%18%54%76%37%44%36%44%54%29%62%37%50%47%36%43%45%39%41%
Undecided16%13%18%15%16%18%12%15%16%16%11%****15%14%29%13%16%11%12%18%16%17%14%16%13%15%15%18%13%16%16%14%18%
Total100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%100%
Composition of Registered Voters100%48%52%20%31%29%20%51%49%91%6%1%2%41%52%8%39%40%13%36%64%56%26%18%59%38%61%36%51%49%23%27%34%17%
 
 
** Too few respondents of this type were interviewed for this data to be meaningful.